Italy - oh boy

[Rainman05]

Italian political crisis threatens to split Berlusconi camp | Reuters

(Reuters) - Silvio Berlusconi's bid to push Italy into new elections faces a test on Monday when he meets lawmakers from his center-right party who have shown growing unease over his shock decision to pull support from Prime Minister Enrico Letta's coalition.

Oh boy oh boy oh boy...

So I posted a story about this guy, Letta, the current PM (the PM is the most important function, like the chancellor is in Germany). is related, distantly, to Berlusconi. It was in a euronews published story. But they are in opposite parties, ideologically... one is in a socialist one (Letta) and the other is center-right.

Now months ago, when this coalition was formed, Berlusconi, in the midst of all the trials he was in, said he won't seek political office. Now, his party says that if he is denied political office, they'll hang this coalition out to dry.

So what will happen.
If they do remove themselves from the coalition, there may be a new round of elections because there is no way to form another ruling coalition. The anti-politicals made by the comedian don't want to form any coalition, the conservatives that were in power that the EU put in place got just 10% or so... and whoever makes a coalition will them may as well sign a political death certificate... so.
This means that if the PM loses the vote of confidence, and if the coalition splits... then one of the parties needs to get a clear-cut majority of 50%+1 in the elections that will follow... or have another small party rise to cover the distance needed to get a majority. Again, this means taking on the independents, taking on Monti's conservative party... and generally forming a huge mess.

If there are elections, the one thing that you can put money on is that the 5-star movement of Beppo the comedian, the anti-politicals, will grow in power and popularity. This I am sure of.
Italy's unemployment among young people under 28 is huge, 30% or more. Overall unemployment is lower. Their sovereign debt is nearing 3tril and economic recovery is just a dream. And there are no solutions in sight.

The 5-star anti politicals have general guidelines NOW, they didn't have them last election cycle. the only problem is that they are the biggest euro-skeptic political party in Italy, and also in Europe. They may very well end up to be the first euroskeptic political party to take power in any EU country.
And no, the UK and the tories dont' count because they're not euro-skeptics per se... they're just not dedicated pro-EU people, they're cautious and reserved.

 

[Rainman05]

What I said about the 5-star party ,should they become the ruling party in Italy that they might be the first anti-EU party, that is of course if the freedom party in Austria don't win. If they do, then Austria will be governed by the first openly euro-skeptic party.

 

[DDD]

Comedians earn votes in Italy. Interesting fact!

 

[Rainman05]

Comedians earn votes in Italy. Interesting fact!

He's more of a political activist/ comedian from my understanding. An more excentric George Carlin that happens to be Italian.

He is however not a politician and despises politicians, which is something to appreciate in a man. He doesn't seek political office or political power but I heard he has been found guilty of some wrongdoing in the past and that's why he can't legally run for office or smth (not that that's stopped Berlusconi lol).

I don't like the man and I don't know what his party's politics are (except what's on wikipedia, which you shouldn't trust) overall, except the euroskepticism part.

 

[DDD]

There has not been stability in the area for a while. What are the odds that Italy might dissolve to independent cities?

You know such that we saw on that illustrated interactive maps in Europe? It is removed due to recent difficulties in DP!

 

[Rainman05]

There has not been stability in the area for a while. What are the odds that Italy might dissolve to independent cities?

You know such that we saw on that illustrated interactive maps in Europe? It is removed due to recent difficulties in DP!

No chance what so ever. Unless complete cretins get into power.

There is some political force to break Italy up in 2 countries... the north and the south. To be fair, because all the immigrants from African and Arabian countries are in the south, and in sicily... and this has lead to huge social and economic problems, crippling the economy.

European Regional Development Fund 2007–2013: Southern Italy is almost all classified under the Convergence objective (GDP per capita less than 75% of the EU average).

So the people who propose the separation of Italy in 2 due to economical motivations have a good foundation. Now I don't think they should separate, and the ones who do aren't a major power in politics, but they should take steps to solve this huge problem in the south.

But they won't become a series of city-states anyway. That whole business was in Northern italy anyway and northern italy isn't in economic problems.

 

[CanadaJohn]

It wouldn't surprise me if Berlusconi's party and Letta's party work out a deal that puts Letta back in power with the condition that Berlusconi is pardoned for all crimes currently convicted/charged or any that may be in the future related to his "activities" with young girls.

 

[DDD]

It wouldn't surprise me if Berlusconi's party and Letta's party work out a deal that puts Letta back in power with the condition that Berlusconi is pardoned for all crimes currently convicted/charged or any that may be in the future related to his "activities" with young girls.

I always thought that Berlusconi does every legal scandal he can think of just to keep the attention away from the debt and unemployment (i.e., real problems) that the country is facing.

 

[PeteEU]

I always thought that Berlusconi does every legal scandal he can think of just to keep the attention away from the debt and unemployment (i.e., real problems) that the country is facing.

When he was in power maybe, but now nope.. those scandals have caught up to him and he is now a convicted criminal.

 

[Rainman05]

I always thought that Berlusconi does every legal scandal he can think of just to keep the attention away from the debt and unemployment (i.e., real problems) that the country is facing.

I think it had more to do with the fact that he can't help himself. He's a powerhungry, tactless, egomaniac imbecile with ties to the "white collar mafia".

When he was in power maybe, but now nope.. those scandals have caught up to him and he is now a convicted criminal.

But those convictions will mean nothing politically if he gets to keep his seat.

From what i understand, it's either this thursday or friday when the senate will decide if berlusconi can continue to be a member of parliament or not.

 

[Rainman05]

Italy

So after some political plays being done today and yesterday, it seems that Letta is on the right path to winning the confidence vote... which would avert an immediate political crisis.

Tomorrow is the day when the parliament will vote on the issue. Should Letta lose, the executive branch will have to be dissolved and a new PM be appointed with a new cabinet (well, the new cabinet is optional but considering nearly half the cabinet is empty now because they were ministers who were part of Berlusconis' party and they left... a whole new cabinet is going to be needed).

Friday is another important day since it will be the day when the senatorial commission in charge of determining if Berlusconi can keep his seat in Parliament or not will give their verdict. There is thus a chance that even if a political crisis will be averted tomorrow, that if berlusconi gets the boot on Friday, his party may dismiss themselves form the ruling coalition and join the opposition... in which case the socialist government will no longer have majority in parliament which means that the socialist party will have to find a new political party as partner or rule as minority government. Which is not ideal.

 

[Manc Skipper]

A hopeful sign is that Berlusconi's footsoldiers seem unwilling to jump at his every command for now.

 

[Rainman05]

Italian government survives confidence vote after Berlusconi backtracks | News | DW.DE | 02.10.2013

Italian government survives confidence vote after Berlusconi backtracks
The Italian government has comfortably survived a confidence vote. Silvio Berlusconi reversed plans to topple Prime Minister Enrico Letta on Wednesday afternoon.

Tax fraud conviction
Berlusconi had broken with Letta's administration on Saturday after coalition allies refused to block procedures to expel him from parliament because of a tax fraud conviction in August. A court sentenced Berlusconi to one year under house arrest or doing community service.
In February's elections, the center-left coalition led by Letta and his Democratic Party fell 20 seats short of a majority in the 321-member Senate and assumed office last spring in an awkward coalition with Berlusconi's right-wing bloc.
While teetering on political instability, Italy is also struggling to rein in its budget deficit. The unemployment rate has also returned to a record high of 12.2 percent, with youth unemployment also at a record level of 40.1 percent.

herp derp. Good. One political crisis adverted.
Stay tooned and let's see what happens on ITALIA JERSEY SHORE.

Will Berlusconi get sacked on Friday by the Senate because of his criminal record or will he be able to continue his love affair with the italian public office?
Will Letta reign in the deficit?
If berlusconi gets canned, will the PdL still stand by the socialists and who will rise to lead the party?
Can the PdL survive without Berlusconi? Will they make it?
Do dogs have retractable claws?

Find out next season of ITALIAN POLITICS, starting FRIDAY... if you know.. there's no delays.
CIAO.

 

[Rainman05]

Committee votes for Berlusconi to be expelled from Italian Senate | euronews, world news

So Berlusconi has been put up on the chopping block. But don't celebrate yet. This was just the senatorial committee that was to analyze if he was legally allowed to continue his role in politics or not. The whole senate has to vote on whether to approve his dismissal or not. I think it will be next week.