It is official now: Biden has won most Super Tuesday delegates

[GreatNews2night]

Even with some delegates for California, Utah, and Colorado still to be allocated, by now Sanders can no longer catch Biden in terms of total pledged delegates coming out of Super Tuesday.

Delegates are still pending allocation, due to Bloomberg's count being still uncertain in terms of meeting 15% in some congressional districts that haven't finished counting. But Bernie who did make that threshold, has already acquired most of his delegates for those districts, so the pending ones will mostly be between Sanders and Bloomberg, for the most part (if Bloomberg qualifies, Bernie's haul will actually be re-calculated a bit lower, but if Bloomberg doesn't make it, whatever gains Bernie makes will also be made by Biden.

One more victory: Biden wins most Super Tuesday delegates

So much for winning California and off-setting Biden's gains.

This is made worse for Bernie because Bloomberg has dropped out and has endorsed Biden, so Bloomberg's delegates, where allowed by State law, should vote for Biden in the first ballot of the convention, anyway. I think California is not a state that forbids its delegates from doing so, therefore in practical terms all these pending possible Bloomberg delegates will be ultimately going to Biden anyway.

LOL, some Bernie supporters were expecting more than 300 delegates to be the advantage for Sanders after Super Tuesday... and he ended up with a negative tally.

Due to all of this, 538's Nate Silver has dramatically updated his predictions.

Now, a contested convention is no longer the most likely outcome. Its odds got dropped to 1 in 12.

Biden now has 8 in 9 odds of making the 1991 threshold to win the convention in first ballot.

You know where Sanders odds went? 1 in 50!!!

Sanders is toast.

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary? | FiveThirtyEight

Biden is now expected to breach the 1991 delegates threshold by early May.

Biden is expected to finish with 2,299 delegates.

People made such a fuss about superdelegates and how they would steal the nomination from Bernie...

Superdelegates are not even likely to vote, since they can only vote in second ballot if the first one doesn't produce a winner. It looks like first ballot *will* produce a winner, Joseph A. Biden.

 

[hermit]

That should have Trump quaking in his boots.

 

[mrdeltoid]

Even with some delegates for California, Utah, and Colorado still to be allocated, by now Sanders can no longer catch Biden in terms of total pledged delegates coming out of Super Tuesday.

Delegates are still pending allocation, due to Bloomberg's count being still uncertain in terms of meeting 15% in some congressional districts that haven't finished counting. But Bernie who did make that threshold, has already acquired most of his delegates for those districts, so the pending ones will mostly be between Sanders and Bloomberg, for the most part (if Bloomberg qualifies, Bernie's haul will actually be re-calculated a bit lower, but if Bloomberg doesn't make it, whatever gains Bernie makes will also be made by Biden.

One more victory: Biden wins most Super Tuesday delegates

So much for winning California and off-setting Biden's gains.

This is made worse for Bernie because Bloomberg has dropped out and has endorsed Biden, so Bloomberg's delegates, where allowed by State law, should vote for Biden in the first ballot of the convention, anyway. I think California is not a state that forbids its delegates from doing so, therefore in practical terms all these pending possible Bloomberg delegates will be ultimately going to Biden anyway.

LOL, some Bernie supporters were expecting more than 300 delegates to be the advantage for Sanders after Super Tuesday... and he ended up with a negative tally.

Due to all of this, 538's Nate Silver has dramatically updated his predictions.

Now, a contested convention is no longer the most likely outcome. Its odds got dropped to 1 in 12.

Biden now has 8 in 9 odds of making the 1991 threshold to win the convention in first ballot.

You know where Sanders odds went? 1 in 50!!!

Sanders is toast.

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary? | FiveThirtyEight

Biden is now expected to breach the 1991 delegates threshold by early May.

The democrat party knew if they had a socialist going into the general they would surely loose. And Biden is the 2020 version of Mondale.

 

[Cardinal]

I'm actually relieved because even though I like Bernie's positions more, Biden is more pragmatic when it comes to campaigning, meaning he's probably going to win. Biden will take all the money he can get, whereas Sanders was going to turn down a multibillionaire's help.

 

[swing_voter]

I'm actually relieved because even though I like Bernie's positions more, Biden is more pragmatic when it comes to campaigning, meaning he's probably going to win. Biden will take all the money he can get, whereas Sanders was going to turn down a multibillionaire's help.

Bernie wanted to outlaw workplace health insurance, health insurance your boss gives you as a job perk. 150 million people have health insurance because of their jobs and a lot of them really like it. It's cheap and good.

So you can easily see a scenario where millions of democrats vote against Bernie just to keep their work health insurance.

Bernie could never beat Trump.

 

[Exquisitor]

The democrat party knew if they had a socialist going into the general they would surely loose. And Biden is the 2020 version of Mondale.

Bernie talks big, but what can he get done?

Biden, at least he's experienced in the oval office.

Bernie sounds mad, Biden sounds old. But both have the same astrology score to compete with Trump, seven to five.

 

[Slavister]

Bernie wanted to outlaw workplace health insurance, health insurance your boss gives you as a job perk.

yeah ... and replace it with something much much better ...

You gotta work on your spin more...

Biden now has 8 in 9 odds of making the 1991 threshold to win the convention in first ballot...Sanders is toast.

Yeah, interesting. I also get this impression.

Even though I really want Biden to win for reasons I stated in other threads, if odds like this keep up, I am now thinking of changing my vote and either abstaining or voting for Bernie just to send a message to Biden on the importance of Bernie agenda - M4A being the primary one.

 

[Cardinal]

Bernie wanted to outlaw workplace health insurance, health insurance your boss gives you as a job perk. 150 million people have health insurance because of their jobs and a lot of them really like it. It's cheap and good.

So you can easily see a scenario where millions of democrats vote against Bernie just to keep their work health insurance.

Bernie could never beat Trump.

Sorry, but that's not what the numbers say.

 

[Exquisitor]

Sorry, but that's not what the numbers say.

You're right, the numbers say on a scale of -20 to 20, Bernie and Biden have seven to Trump's five, in one of the predictors.

 

[Cardinal]

You're right, the numbers say on a scale of -20 to 20, Bernie and Biden have seven to Trump's five, in one of the predictors.

I don't know what that means. I'm going by head-to-head polling from RCP. Using that information Biden wins at least 281 electoral votes.

My only problem is that most of those polls from October or November. That said, Trump's approval is no higher than then, and I've seen no reason why Biden's should be in a weaker position than then.

 

[Craig234]

Bernie wanted to outlaw workplace health insurance, health insurance your boss gives you as a job perk. 150 million people have health insurance because of their jobs and a lot of them really like it.

Ya, it'd be terrible for them to get BETTER healthcare, AND have the $10,000 cost freed up to give to the employee as salary.

It's cheap and good.

It's twice as expensive as any other healthcare in the world, and rated lower than government healthcare (Medicare, Medicaid, and VA are the top rated).

So you can easily see a scenario where millions of democrats vote against Bernie just to keep their work health insurance.

I see idiocy from people who don't care about insuring everyone and fixing a terrible, corrupt industry, talking at times but I see a MAJORITY of Democrats in EVERY SINGLE PRIMARY STATE SO FAR who want single payer.

Bernie could never beat Trump.

Bernie would likely destroy trump and is the best chance.

 

[Craig234]

The democrat party

No such thing

socialist

** lie **

 

[GreatNews2night]

yeah ... and replace it with something much much better ...

You gotta work on your spin more...



Yeah, interesting. I also get this impression.

Even though I really want Biden to win for reasons I stated in other threads, if odds like this keep up, I am now thinking of changing my vote and either abstaining or voting for Bernie just to send a message to Biden on the importance of Bernie agenda - M4A being the primary one.

This kind of strategy is dangerous. Just vote for the candidate you prefer. This sitting out for sending a message stuff, is in part why Hillary lost in 2016.

 

[MovingPictures]

Even with some delegates for California, Utah, and Colorado still to be allocated, by now Sanders can no longer catch Biden in terms of total pledged delegates coming out of Super Tuesday.

Delegates are still pending allocation, due to Bloomberg's count being still uncertain in terms of meeting 15% in some congressional districts that haven't finished counting. But Bernie who did make that threshold, has already acquired most of his delegates for those districts, so the pending ones will mostly be between Sanders and Bloomberg, for the most part (if Bloomberg qualifies, Bernie's haul will actually be re-calculated a bit lower, but if Bloomberg doesn't make it, whatever gains Bernie makes will also be made by Biden.

One more victory: Biden wins most Super Tuesday delegates

So much for winning California and off-setting Biden's gains.

This is made worse for Bernie because Bloomberg has dropped out and has endorsed Biden, so Bloomberg's delegates, where allowed by State law, should vote for Biden in the first ballot of the convention, anyway. I think California is not a state that forbids its delegates from doing so, therefore in practical terms all these pending possible Bloomberg delegates will be ultimately going to Biden anyway.

LOL, some Bernie supporters were expecting more than 300 delegates to be the advantage for Sanders after Super Tuesday... and he ended up with a negative tally.

Due to all of this, 538's Nate Silver has dramatically updated his predictions.

Now, a contested convention is no longer the most likely outcome. Its odds got dropped to 1 in 12.

Biden now has 8 in 9 odds of making the 1991 threshold to win the convention in first ballot.

You know where Sanders odds went? 1 in 50!!!

Sanders is toast.

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary? | FiveThirtyEight

Biden is now expected to breach the 1991 delegates threshold by early May.

Biden is expected to finish with 2,299 delegates.

People made such a fuss about superdelegates and how they would steal the nomination from Bernie...

Superdelegates are not even likely to vote, since they can only vote in second ballot if the first one doesn't produce a winner. It looks like first ballot *will* produce a winner, Joseph A. Biden.

If there's one thing we've learned in these past four years, it's that these things can turn around rather quickly. Right now, it doesn't seem like there's any way for Sanders to comeback, but all it will take is a freak upset in Michigan and he's back in the game, even if the math remains against him for the time being.

Now, if Biden keeps sweeping these contests and is able to grab some of that anti-Clinton moderate vote that went for Sanders in 2016, then it won't be long before this thing is over from a math stand point, even if Sanders continues until Biden is over the top to show his voters he gave it his all.

One thing that Biden (and Sanders) will have to show is how he performs in a one on one week from today. Biden can't have a bunch of senior moments. I think it's unfair that people are claiming his senile, when really he's having issues controlling his stutter (which makes him slur to similar sounding words to the ones he intended), but this is politics, and people are expecting him to get it under control.

OTOH, Sanders can't just ramble about how the establishment is against him. It's disrespectful to the voters who simply don't agree with his platform. It also makes him look kooky.

 

[GreatNews2night]

I see idiocy from people

Great, keep up with your arrogant idea that voters who are not for Bernie are idiots. You are doing a great job in terms of convincing people to vote for your candidate. :roll:

I see a MAJORITY of Democrats in EVERY SINGLE PRIMARY STATE SO FAR who want single payer.

And still, in most states that have voted so far, Biden won by massive numbers, although he is not the one proposing single payer. When will you guys learn that support for a single issue is not a good predictor of votes for the candidate pushing for that issue?
--------
You guys (and your candidate) talk really tough. Talk is cheap. The numbers that do matter, popular votes and pledged delegates, are showing a different story.

 

[MovingPictures]

This kind of strategy is dangerous. Just vote for the candidate you prefer. This sitting out for sending a message stuff, is in part why Hillary lost in 2016.

I think anywhere from 10-20% of Sanders supporters will either vote Green party, write him in, or just not vote at all, even after he endorses Biden.

But, the trade off is that suburban college educated whites, working class women, and AA's are more likely to turn out in much higher numbers for Biden in the general.

 

[Exquisitor]

If there's one thing we've learned in these past four years, it's that these things can turn around rather quickly. Right now, it doesn't seem like there's any way for Sanders to comeback, but all it will take is a freak upset in Michigan and he's back in the game, even if the math remains against him for the time being.

Now, if Biden keeps sweeping these contests and is able to grab some of that anti-Clinton moderate vote that went for Sanders in 2016, then it won't be long before this thing is over from a math stand point, even if Sanders continues until Biden is over the top to show his voters he gave it his all.

One thing that Biden (and Sanders) will have to show is how he performs in a one on one week from today. Biden can't have a bunch of senior moments. I think it's unfair that people are claiming his senile, when really he's having issues controlling his stutter (which makes him slur to similar sounding words to the ones he intended), but this is politics, and people are expecting him to get it under control.

OTOH, Sanders can't just ramble about how the establishment is against him. It's disrespectful to the voters who simply don't agree with his platform. It also makes him look kooky.

It's still fifty-fifty and greater than that, there are other indicators the party in power may be upset.

 

[3leftsdoo]

Even with some delegates for California, Utah, and Colorado still to be allocated, by now Sanders can no longer catch Biden in terms of total pledged delegates coming out of Super Tuesday.

Delegates are still pending allocation, due to Bloomberg's count being still uncertain in terms of meeting 15% in some congressional districts that haven't finished counting. But Bernie who did make that threshold, has already acquired most of his delegates for those districts, so the pending ones will mostly be between Sanders and Bloomberg, for the most part (if Bloomberg qualifies, Bernie's haul will actually be re-calculated a bit lower, but if Bloomberg doesn't make it, whatever gains Bernie makes will also be made by Biden.

One more victory: Biden wins most Super Tuesday delegates

So much for winning California and off-setting Biden's gains.

This is made worse for Bernie because Bloomberg has dropped out and has endorsed Biden, so Bloomberg's delegates, where allowed by State law, should vote for Biden in the first ballot of the convention, anyway. I think California is not a state that forbids its delegates from doing so, therefore in practical terms all these pending possible Bloomberg delegates will be ultimately going to Biden anyway.

LOL, some Bernie supporters were expecting more than 300 delegates to be the advantage for Sanders after Super Tuesday... and he ended up with a negative tally.

Due to all of this, 538's Nate Silver has dramatically updated his predictions.

Now, a contested convention is no longer the most likely outcome. Its odds got dropped to 1 in 12.

Biden now has 8 in 9 odds of making the 1991 threshold to win the convention in first ballot.

You know where Sanders odds went? 1 in 50!!!

Sanders is toast.

Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary? | FiveThirtyEight

Biden is now expected to breach the 1991 delegates threshold by early May.

Biden is expected to finish with 2,299 delegates.

People made such a fuss about superdelegates and how they would steal the nomination from Bernie...

Superdelegates are not even likely to vote, since they can only vote in second ballot if the first one doesn't produce a winner. It looks like first ballot *will* produce a winner, Joseph A. Biden.

You seem MUCH more excited about this than you ever were about Bernie...

But anyway, Biden will lose to Trump by a greater margin than Bernie would have.

Oh well - the Democrats cheat themselves to a loss yet again.

:thumbs:

 

[GreatNews2night]

If there's one thing we've learned in these past four years, it's that these things can turn around rather quickly. Right now, it doesn't seem like there's any way for Sanders to comeback, but all it will take is a freak upset in Michigan and he's back in the game, even if the math remains against him for the time being.

Now, if Biden keeps sweeping these contests and is able to grab some of that anti-Clinton moderate vote that went for Sanders in 2016, then it won't be long before this thing is over from a math stand point, even if Sanders continues until Biden is over the top to show his voters he gave it his all.

One thing that Biden (and Sanders) will have to show is how he performs in a one on one week from today. Biden can't have a bunch of senior moments. I think it's unfair that people are claiming his senile, when really he's having issues controlling his stutter (which makes him slur to similar sounding words to the ones he intended), but this is politics, and people are expecting him to get it under control.

OTOH, Sanders can't just ramble about how the establishment is against him. It's disrespectful to the voters who simply don't agree with his platform. It also makes him look kooky.

From March 4, Michigan is showing Biden ahead by 6 percentage points. This has not captured Bloomberg dropping out and endorsing Biden, as he scored 11% in that poll.
From March 5, Florida is showing an astounding +47% for Biden. The latest Florida poll has Biden at 61 and Sanders at 12%. Bloomberg also still there with 14%.

Source: RealClearPolitics. Just check it out.

Given his HUGE advantage in Florida which has 219 delegates, I think Biden is safe even if he loses Michigan, which has 125 delegates.

That praise for Fidel Castro will continue to destroy Bernie's numbers in Florida.

You are right, the race can still switch and Michigan is one week before Florida so Bernie could catch some momentum if he wins Michigan, but I think Biden will still reverse it when Florida comes along.

Other upcoming contests that have had polls done after March 3:

Washington, Biden +3
Missouri, Biden +22
Maryland Sanders +4, but then, Bloomberg got 15% there; again, most of those will migrate to Biden.

I think Biden is in very good shape.

But yes, who knows, some sort of damaging senior moment in a debate, some scandal, sure, it could still change.

 

[Surrealistik]

One thing that Biden (and Sanders) will have to show is how he performs in a one on one week from today. Biden can't have a bunch of senior moments. I think it's unfair that people are claiming his senile, when really he's having issues controlling his stutter (which makes him slur to similar sounding words to the ones he intended), but this is politics, and people are expecting him to get it under control.

OTOH, Sanders can't just ramble about how the establishment is against him. It's disrespectful to the voters who simply don't agree with his platform. It also makes him look kooky.

There is no earthly way Biden's problems are limited to being a stuttering issue.

Again, the man routinely forgets things he shouldn't (like Obama's name most worryingly, which he has done multiple times), uses completely improper words (including words that aren't phonetically similar) and keeps saying utterly bizarre things (dog faced pony soldier, challenging someone a town hall to an IQ test and push ups, talking about he likes kids bouncing on his lap and that's how he learned about roaches, saying parents need to be sure they have the record player on at night for their kids, and so on); that has nothing to do with stuttering nor could it, and these issues weren't nearly as prominent even 4 years ago as they are today. You are in denial; the man is suffering from serious and obvious cognitive decline.

I don't know if it's dementia for sure, but it seems damn well probable.

 

[GreatNews2night]

You seem MUCH more excited about this than you ever were about Bernie...

I'm just a verbose guy. During my Bernie phase I was also posting long posts defending him.

Maybe I'm being more vociferous about this because all this talk of "rigging" and things "stolen from Bernie" (when the reality is that Biden is about 900,000 popular votes ahead of Bernie) and all these arrogant talks that Biden voters are stupid, got me really irritated.

 

[GreatNews2night]

I don't know if it's dementia for sure, but it seems damn well probable.

What I will say is absolutely a rumor, I know. But if we are to talk about unconfirmed diagnoses for both candidates and not just for Biden like you just did, then we need to pay attention to this, too: a friend of mine is a professor of Cardiology at a very prestigious medical school (top 10). He was here in my home yesterday, over for dinner. He said that he heard from other nationally recognized cardiologists he is constantly in touch with in his numerous academic pursuits, that the reason why Bernie is now refusing to show his health assessments, is that he has a very low ejection fraction after his myocardial infarction. Supposedly one of these prominent American cardiologists participated in Bernie's care and unethically leaked the information to colleagues. Ejection fraction is the percentage of blood that the left ventricle pumps out. A very low ejection fraction points to a very limited life expectancy. If this rumor is true (and of cours I don't know if it is, but it is curious to see that Bernie has refused to disclose his tests; one assumes that indeed there is something damaging there), then Bernie's health problems are actually much more worrisome than Biden's.

 

[MovingPictures]

What I will say is absolutely a rumor, I know. But if we are to talk about unconfirmed diagnoses for both candidates and not just for Biden like you just did, then we need to pay attention to this, too: a friend of mine is a professor of Cardiology at a very prestigious medical school (top 10). He was here in my home yesterday, over for dinner. He said that he heard from other nationally recognized cardiologists he is constantly in touch with in his numerous academic pursuits, that the reason why Bernie is now refusing to show his health assessments, is that he has a very low ejection fraction after his myocardial infarction. Supposedly one of these prominent American cardiologists participated in Bernie's care and unethically leaked the information to colleagues. Ejection fraction is the percentage of blood that the left ventricle pumps out. A very low ejection fraction points to a very limited life expectancy. If this rumor is true (and of cours I don't know if it is, but it is curious to see that Bernie has refused to disclose his tests; one assumes that indeed there is something damaging there), then Bernie's health problems are actually much more worrisome than Biden's.

The fact that Sanders refuses to release his records only after he suffered a heart attack, is itself very telling that there's something going on with him.

His fanatics have the balls to join the right in questioning the fitness of other Democratic candidates (like they did to Clinton), while refusing to even be the least bit curious as to his own health problems.

 

[Surrealistik]

What I will say is absolutely a rumor, I know. But if we are to talk about unconfirmed diagnoses for both candidates and not just for Biden like you just did, then we need to pay attention to this, too: a friend of mine is a professor of Cardiology at a very prestigious medical school (top 10). He was here in my home yesterday, over for dinner. He said that he heard from other nationally recognized cardiologists he is constantly in touch with in his numerous academic pursuits, that the reason why Bernie is now refusing to show his health assessments, is that he has a very low ejection fraction after his myocardial infarction. Supposedly one of these prominent American cardiologists participated in Bernie's care and unethically leaked the information to colleagues. Ejection fraction is the percentage of blood that the left ventricle pumps out. A very low ejection fraction points to a very limited life expectancy. If this rumor is true (and of cours I don't know if it is, but it is curious to see that Bernie has refused to disclose his tests; one assumes that indeed there is something damaging there), then Bernie's health problems are actually much more worrisome than Biden's.

Are we really comparing unsubstantiated rumours next to demonstrable and obvious mental decline? You ought to know better.

Whether it's dementia or not, Biden's mind isn't right; there is something seriously wrong with him.

 

[Surrealistik]

The fact that Sanders refuses to release his records only after he suffered a heart attack, is itself very telling that there's something going on with him.

His fanatics have the balls to join the right in questioning the fitness of other Democratic candidates (like they did to Clinton), while refusing to even be the least bit curious as to his own health problems.

Sure I'd like to see Sanders' health records, but it should be as clear as day that Biden has issues, and they are not remotely limited to stuttering (also I didn't question or state anything concerning Clinton's mental or physical health).