It Has Been Almost 8 Years Since a Major Hurricane Struck the US Coast

[ttwtt78640]

Cuba's not in the US.

Wasn't it one of the 57 states visited in that 2008 Obama campaign?

 

[Fisher]

Sandy was a cat 3 but came ashore as a cat 2. other things about it: it had the second lowest pressure of any storm measured and was the largest storm in terms of geography. While it was hitting NJ/NY, it had or was also in the process of dumping ungodly amounts of snow in places like Tennessee and West Virginia. That thing was a monster but atypical storm in most respects.

 

[rjay]

Wasn't it one of the 57 states visited in that 2008 Obama campaign?

now that was funny

 

[Middleground]

Sorry, but the conclusion is the same:

View attachment 67152846

When hurricane Sandy made landfall it was a category 2.

Why does your chart start in 1978? Did we not have hurricanes before that?

Here's one that does not try to cherry pick, a tactic that deniers seem to love to use.

 

[tererun]

From Forbes: It has been 7 years 10 months since a hurricane category 3 or higher has struck the US coast. That's an all time record for major hurricane droughts.

We are half way through the 2013 hurricane season and there have been no hurricanes at all in the Atlantic Ocean.

Over all, there have been fewer major hurricanes per decade (5.4) since 1950 than there were in the 50 years before 1950 (8.4).

Considering total strikes on the US coast, strong and mild hurricanes, the highest total was in the 1880s and the lowest so far was in the 1970s.

The idea that hurricanes are increasing in number and strength is wrong.

Just a silly point here, but if you are saying that the recent hurricane drought is change, doesn't that give some support to the idea there is climate change? I know you read an article somewhere that said hurricanes will increase and now you are debunking that particular statement, but according to your own evidence there may very well be change. That change might be in shifting storm tracks which might lead to lesser hurricane intensity on the east coast of america and in the gulf. Not all changes may be negative, but just because there may possibly one positive change does not mean the massive clouds of smog over our cities go away, nor that the entire rest of the world happens to be positively effected like the specific east coast US hurricane path.

Why don't you get on analyzing some global data about change and pollution levels instead of just picking one small area and some very cherry picked data. This is a massive problem with the right wing and how the approach science.

 

[LowDown]

Why does your chart start in 1978? Did we not have hurricanes before that?

Here's one that does not try to cherry pick, a tactic that deniers seem to love to use.

What is the source of that graph? It doesn't seem to have one.

That the graph I provided starts in 1970 should make no difference. Your graph has quite an uptick on it toward the end that does not show up in my data.

View attachment 67152860

In any case, your graph contradicts the one I posted. So provide the source and tell us something about the methods used to produce it and maybe we can decide which is more valid.

Of course, your graph refers to "storms" which many not be the same thing as "hurricanes."

 

[LowDown]

Why does your chart start in 1978? Did we not have hurricanes before that?

Here's one that does not try to cherry pick, a tactic that deniers seem to love to use.

View attachment 67152860

Here's a reconstruction of Atlantic hurricane activity going back to 1856:



AMO refers to "Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation", which refers to the idea that Atlantic hurricane activity is following a cycle long term.

Nyberg, J.; Winter; Malmgren; Winter, A.; Malmgren, B. A. (2005). "Reconstruction of Major Hurricane Activity". Eos Trans. AGU 86 (52, Fall Meet. Suppl.): Abstract PP21C–1597.

Here is the NOAA version of Atlantic storms, which includes all named storms:



The yellow bars are named storms, the green hatched hurricanes, and the red are major hurricanes (category 3 or greater). Note that the data cuts off in 2004. After that the frequency goes back down, as per the Forbes article. In all these graphs there appears to be a maximum at about 1950 and another one about 2004, but it doesn't make for an upward trend. Dr. Maue's graph is apparently of the global total, Pacific cyclones included, and it's even flatter.

In any case, the idea that Atlantic or Global cyclones/hurricanes have increased in frequency in any special way in the last few decades does not hold up. Forbes claims that major Atlantic hurricanes haven't struck the US in almost 8 years, which appears to be correct, according to this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_hurrStrikes_1950-2011.png

 

[LowDown]

Here's a peer reviewed paper published in Geophysical Research Letters that makes the same point about global tropical cyclone activity falling off in recent years.

 

[P. Kersey]

So? Sandy, not hurricane Sandy, hit a little BS resort and cottage town.
Andrew cut a swath completely through our state with winds over 200 miles per hour at some points.
Sandy? Pfffffffft

Andrew?

Katrina.

 

[CRUE CAB]

Andrew?

Katrina.

Never heard of Hurricane Andrew?

 

[P. Kersey]

Never heard of Hurricane Andrew?

Of course I have..It wasn't as bad as Katrina. Andrew wasn't bigger or stronger either...look at satellite images. Look at NWS data.

Still fresh in the memories of American's, especially those from New Orleans, Hurricane Katrina was the costliest hurricane in US history as well as one of the 5 most deadliest ever recorded. Knocking out levies in Louisiana Katrina caused over 80% of New Orleans to flood before moving into the northeastern United States dumping rain all across the area.

By far the largest natural disaster to ever hit the US Hurricane Katrina is $80 billion (2008 USD) in damages and killed 1,836 people with 705 still missing. One thing that stands out about the Katrina disaster is the utter failure of FEMA or any other government agency to provide support and rescue services to the areas. Lawlessness was rampant with police shooting innocent civilians and going door to door confiscating guns from American citizens in dry areas just trying to defend their homes.
Read more at 10 Biggest, Deadliest, Most Destructive Hurricanes EVER!!

EDIT:

How did you make out in Melbourne during/after Andrew?

I have a thread here somewhere about the other day being the 8th anniversary of Katrina.
I live where the eye passed over...got hammered by both sides of the storm. Lived here for 23 days w/out power.

Here's the NWS bulletin the day before it made landfall. I had never before heard a bulletin like this;

WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

 

[CRUE CAB]

Of course I have..It wasn't as bad as Katrina. Andrew wasn't bigger or stronger either...look at satellite images. Look at NWS data.

Still fresh in the memories of American's, especially those from New Orleans, Hurricane Katrina was the costliest hurricane in US history as well as one of the 5 most deadliest ever recorded. Knocking out levies in Louisiana Katrina caused over 80% of New Orleans to flood before moving into the northeastern United States dumping rain all across the area.

By far the largest natural disaster to ever hit the US Hurricane Katrina is $80 billion (2008 USD) in damages and killed 1,836 people with 705 still missing. One thing that stands out about the Katrina disaster is the utter failure of FEMA or any other government agency to provide support and rescue services to the areas. Lawlessness was rampant with police shooting innocent civilians and going door to door confiscating guns from American citizens in dry areas just trying to defend their homes.
Read more at 10 Biggest, Deadliest, Most Destructive Hurricanes EVER!!

Andrew hit with more force and the only reason more died in Katrina is because they chose to live below sea level and the storm surge was higher.
Katrina only has some much more involvement is because it was craftily politicized by the left to bash GW about.