It angers me when coaches completely lose their balls on 4th down

[StillBallin75]

I'm not even a Packers fan, although I tend to root for Aaron Rodgers because he's my favorite quarterback to watch. With that said, Green Bay's performance - specifically the decision-making by Mike McCarthy - had me pulling my hair out. McCarthy did everything in the book that advanced statistics tells you NOT to do during the game. Generally speaking, I'm referring to his overly conservative playcalling. A couple major decisions that bugged the hell out of me:

1) McCarthy twice deciding not to go for it on 4th down when his offense is on the goal line. Even if you don't convert in these situations, you have the added value of putting the opponents' offense in horrendous field position in their own endzone.

2) The 3rd and 19 conversion by Seattle that eventually led to the fake field goal for a TD. Capers' decides to rush only 3 linemen (actually more like rushing two, the nose tackle was playing contain/spy on Wilson), giving Wilson all day to throw down the field to Baldwin for a first down.

3) The decision in the 4th quarter to continually run the ball, especially via draw plays in 1st and 2nd down. Statistically speaking, unless the game is well out of hand, even if you have the lead, you're not supposed to become overly conservative even when you're up. Keep doing what got you the lead in the first place, especially since you have possibly the greatest passer in the game ever, and Richard Sherman is playing without a left arm.

4) Morgan Burnett's decision to go to the ground after intercepting Wilson - fear of fumbling led him to sacrifice field position.

You get the gist. Conservative playcalling bugs the hell out of me because statistical analysis shows that coaches are generally too timid. Green Bay absolutely deserved to lose this game due to their complete lack of balls. All in all, the coaching staff wasted a great performance by Rodgers (considering his health and condition), by the defense, and horrendous play from Russell Wilson on the other side.

For those who aren't familiar with football analytics, especially with regard to 4th down decision-making and overall playcalling, here is a primer:

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/11/19/nfl-tv-broadcasts-advanced-stats/

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Are NFL Coaches Too Timid?

Baseball, and to a lesser extent, basketball, have already had their "Moneyball" moments. When will NFL front office personnel and coaches understand the hidden advantage of embracing advanced stats?

 

[Peter King]

I'm not even a Packers fan, although I tend to root for Aaron Rodgers because he's my favorite quarterback to watch. With that said, Green Bay's performance - specifically the decision-making by Mike McCarthy - had me pulling my hair out. McCarthy did everything in the book that advanced statistics tells you NOT to do during the game. Generally speaking, I'm referring to his overly conservative playcalling. A couple major decisions that bugged the hell out of me:

1) McCarthy twice deciding not to go for it on 4th down when his offense is on the goal line. Even if you don't convert in these situations, you have the added value of putting the opponents' offense in horrendous field position in their own endzone.

2) The 3rd and 19 conversion by Seattle that eventually led to the fake field goal for a TD. Capers' decides to rush only 3 linemen (actually more like rushing two, the nose tackle was playing contain/spy on Wilson), giving Wilson all day to throw down the field to Baldwin for a first down.

3) The decision in the 4th quarter to continually run the ball, especially via draw plays in 1st and 2nd down. Statistically speaking, unless the game is well out of hand, even if you have the lead, you're not supposed to become overly conservative even when you're up. Keep doing what got you the lead in the first place, especially since you have possibly the greatest passer in the game ever, and Richard Sherman is playing without a left arm.

4) Morgan Burnett's decision to go to the ground after intercepting Wilson - fear of fumbling led him to sacrifice field position.

You get the gist. Conservative playcalling bugs the hell out of me because statistical analysis shows that coaches are generally too timid. Green Bay absolutely deserved to lose this game due to their complete lack of balls. All in all, the coaching staff wasted a great performance by Rodgers (considering his health and condition), by the defense, and horrendous play from Russell Wilson on the other side.

For those who aren't familiar with football analytics, especially with regard to 4th down decision-making and overall playcalling, here is a primer:

Will NFL Broadcasts Ever Embrace Advanced Stats? | The MMQB with Peter King

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Are NFL Coaches Too Timid?

Baseball, and to a lesser extent, basketball, have already had their "Moneyball" moments. When will NFL front office personnel and coaches understand the hidden advantage of embracing advanced stats?

You mean like the 2 B's from the Patriots (Belichick and Brady) just did on 4th and 4 on the Ind 35 yard line and going for it, and making it of course. Which now is at the 15 yards like with the next few plays that came after that big 4 and 4

 

[Peter King]

You mean like the 2 B's from the Patriots (Belichick and Brady) just did on 4th and 4 on the Ind 35 yard line and going for it, and making it of course. Which now is at the 15 yards like with the next few plays that came after that big 4 and 4

And now that gutsy decision to go on it on fourth and four has lead to yet another Blount touch down. It is sad and a bit disgusting that a coach, with a great QB like Rodgers and 2 great WR's and a couple of good RB's, to not go for it on 4th and goal.

 

[X Factor]

I'm not even a Packers fan, although I tend to root for Aaron Rodgers because he's my favorite quarterback to watch. With that said, Green Bay's performance - specifically the decision-making by Mike McCarthy - had me pulling my hair out. McCarthy did everything in the book that advanced statistics tells you NOT to do during the game. Generally speaking, I'm referring to his overly conservative playcalling. A couple major decisions that bugged the hell out of me:

1) McCarthy twice deciding not to go for it on 4th down when his offense is on the goal line. Even if you don't convert in these situations, you have the added value of putting the opponents' offense in horrendous field position in their own endzone.

2) The 3rd and 19 conversion by Seattle that eventually led to the fake field goal for a TD. Capers' decides to rush only 3 linemen (actually more like rushing two, the nose tackle was playing contain/spy on Wilson), giving Wilson all day to throw down the field to Baldwin for a first down.

3) The decision in the 4th quarter to continually run the ball, especially via draw plays in 1st and 2nd down. Statistically speaking, unless the game is well out of hand, even if you have the lead, you're not supposed to become overly conservative even when you're up. Keep doing what got you the lead in the first place, especially since you have possibly the greatest passer in the game ever, and Richard Sherman is playing without a left arm.

4) Morgan Burnett's decision to go to the ground after intercepting Wilson - fear of fumbling led him to sacrifice field position.

You get the gist. Conservative playcalling bugs the hell out of me because statistical analysis shows that coaches are generally too timid. Green Bay absolutely deserved to lose this game due to their complete lack of balls. All in all, the coaching staff wasted a great performance by Rodgers (considering his health and condition), by the defense, and horrendous play from Russell Wilson on the other side.

For those who aren't familiar with football analytics, especially with regard to 4th down decision-making and overall playcalling, here is a primer:

Will NFL Broadcasts Ever Embrace Advanced Stats? | The MMQB with Peter King

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Are NFL Coaches Too Timid?

Baseball, and to a lesser extent, basketball, have already had their "Moneyball" moments. When will NFL front office personnel and coaches understand the hidden advantage of embracing advanced stats?

Well sure. As a liberal, you would object to conservative play calling. :2razz:



I'm joking. I actually agree. It looked to me like they just didn't believe the Seahawks could comeback and played very lackluster in the last 5 minutes or so.

 

[StillBallin75]

Well sure. As a liberal, you would object to conservative play calling. :2razz:



I'm joking. I actually agree. It looked to me like they just didn't believe the Seahawks could comeback and played very lackluster in the last 5 minutes or so.

Yep. On the other hand, once the Seahawks got down, they employed every "high-variance" strategy that was called for, including a fake kick for a TD, onside kicking, and going for two ensure overtime. Even before the last five minutes of the game, however, Green Bay was engaging in some pretty questionable decision-making as well IMHO. I'm sure most Packers fans would like to have the extra 8 points they would probably have had, had McCarthy gone for it on 4th and goal. Last week's game between the Patriots and Ravens was an excellent example of coaches having no qualms about extending drives by being more aggressive on 4th down. I have no idea why McCarthy, who is traditionally on the more aggressive side, suddenly decided that today was the day - playing on the road against a slightly superior team that has a great home-field advantage - was the day to suddenly become timid.

 

[X Factor]

Yep. On the other hand, once the Seahawks got down, they employed every "high-variance" strategy that was called for, including a fake kick for a TD, onside kicking, and going for two ensure overtime. Even before the last five minutes of the game, however, Green Bay was engaging in some pretty questionable decision-making as well IMHO. I'm sure most Packers fans would like to have the extra 8 points they would probably have had, had McCarthy gone for it on 4th and goal. Last week's game between the Patriots and Ravens was an excellent example of coaches having no qualms about extending drives by being more aggressive on 4th down. I have no idea why McCarthy, who is traditionally on the more aggressive side, suddenly decided that today was the day - playing on the road against a slightly superior team that has a great home-field advantage - was the day to suddenly become timid.

It's common when a team is down. They start taking more risks. There's actually a big difference between playing to win and playing not to lose. I see it in MMA as well.

 

[StillBallin75]

It's common when a team is down. They start taking more risks. There's actually a big difference between playing to win and playing not to lose. I see it in MMA as well.

I completely agree - the team that is down should in theory start taking more risks. The problem in this case is that the team that was up took so few risks after getting up, that it ended up costing them the game. They played not to lose and it came back and bit em in the ass.

I imagine on the other hand you probably felt like it was karma for the Dez Bryant play last week :2razz:

 

[X Factor]

I completely agree - the team that is down should in theory start taking more risks. The problem in this case is that the team that was up took so few risks after getting up, that it ended up costing them the game. They played not to lose and it came back and bit em in the ass.

I imagine on the other hand you probably felt like it was karma for the Dez Bryant play last week :2razz:

Not really. The game was so good and entertaining (and the officials did a good job) I couldn't begrudge either team and the Seahawks sure earned their win.

 

[beefheart]

Not really. The game was so good and entertaining (and the officials did a good job) I couldn't begrudge either team and the Seahawks sure earned their win.

Good teams win when the officials do a good job. Unlike Dallas v. Detroit.

 

[Top Cat]

The refs did a decent job, but they missed a few for sure.

 

[X Factor]

Good teams win when the officials do a good job. Unlike Dallas v. Detroit.

You're bordering on obsessive stalker status. :2razz:

Saying the Cowboys was not any kind of a decent team this year just illustrates how seriously to take you.

 

[StillBallin75]

Delusional fan thinks people hate on his team because they're jealous, rather than because they're hateworthy :2razz:

 

[X Factor]

Delusional fan thinks people hate on his team because they're jealous, rather than because they're hateworthy :2razz:

Hmmmm, at least I obsess about my own team instead of over my hate for another team. Haters are far worse and sad than fans.

 

[whysoserious]

Agreed. I was having a discussion with some people the other day who pointed out that almost every coach has at least played some college football. Clearly there is a stigma that you have had to have played the game to coach it, rather than to understand the game and the situations. Football seems to be the last American sport to realize that the old methods aren't necessarily the right methods.

In baseball, they are employing major shifts, intentionally walking more guys, not bunting with power hitters, etc. They understand the ideas of risk/reward.
In basketball, patchwork teams being put together that can compete with teams built around allstars

Football still suffers from the "oh that'll never work in this league" syndrome. It happened in basketball. It happened in baseball. Football just needs to catch up. Guys don't necessarily need to waste away 3 years in college first. Linemen can catch passes. Quarterbacks can run. The patriots constantly run the numbers and come out ahead.

They ran the ball 0 times in the 2nd half against baltimore (am I right about that or did I make that stat up? I think I'm right). They have different players catching passes. In an AFC title game, an offensive lineman caught his first ever pass to for a TD. Are you ****ing kidding me?

But Ron Rivera will never get that. Neither will McCarthy. It's going to take the Chip Kellys and Belichicks of the game to push the NFL into advanced stats and analytics.

 

[beefheart]

You're bordering on obsessive stalker status. :2razz:

Saying the Cowboys was not any kind of a decent team this year just illustrates how seriously to take you.

You create entire threads about your team, and have a player as an avatar.

Yeah, that isn't creepy....

LOL

 

[whysoserious]

You create entire threads about your team, and have a player as an avatar.

Yeah, that isn't creepy....

LOL

Whoa whoa whoa. I named my dog after a basketball player. Let's not hate.

 

[Fiddytree]

The God damned shoes....

God damn I hate bling.

 

[beefheart]

Whoa whoa whoa. I named my dog after a basketball player. Let's not hate.

LOL

I named my dog after a Willie Wonka character.

 

[whysoserious]

LOL

I named my dog after a Willie Wonka character.

Mike TV is a weird name for a dog, but I like it!!

 

[X Factor]

You create entire threads about your team, and have a player as an avatar.

Yeah, that isn't creepy....

LOL

And you follow me around like a puppy because of it. Who brought the Cowboys up in this thread, I wonder.

 

[X Factor]

Whoa whoa whoa. I named my dog after a basketball player. Let's not hate.

And let's not overlook the "creepy" nature of Stillballin's avatar.

 

[beefheart]

Mike TV is a weird name for a dog, but I like it!!

LOL...no.

Mike TV sucked. Why would you take a few hundred pounds of chocolate and shrink it to a few ounces? Can't make money doing that.

 

[Peter King]

Saying the Cowboys was not any kind of a decent team this year just illustrates how seriously to take you.

They were more than decent this year, they escaped the big drop they had last season in the latter part of the regular season. But they just do not have enough power to go toe to toe with the likes of the Packers, Patriots or Eagles, at least not this season.

But with great players like Dez and Demarco, they could go a whole lot further. The thing that might be holding them back a bit is, well, there is no way to sugarcoat it, the rest of the teams. Sorry, but that is how I feel it is at the moment. They whole team is decent but decent does not win superbowl rings, not even with 2 exceptional players on the team.

Romo scored worse than the lesser of the 2 Manning brothers. He is 11th in fantasy points scored, 13th in yards thrown, his big saving grace is that he threw 34 TD's this year (making him 4th in that category). He did OK this season but that is just not going to cut it IMHO against the Brady's, Peyton Mannings, Luck, Wilson's and Rodgers of the NFL.

The things that made the team wonderful this season were mostly Demarco, he made 13 TD's and made 1845 yards rushing and 416 yards catching (but no catch TD) and Dez Bryant with his 16 TD's.

Terrence Williams did OK with his 8 TD's, Witten was not that good this year with just 5 touch downs and 703 yards. Dan Bailey was OK this season. The defense did not even come up to decent level, they were sub-par this season, coming in 19th in the season in fantasy points scored does not set the world on fire. There were only 4 teams who made less sacks than the Cowboys did this season (Chargers, Falcons, Raiders and Bengals). On interceptions and fumble rec the Cowboys did OK. In scoring TD's the team was not great but not poor, again, just decent. But the 338 points allowed this season in combination with the lack of sacks just let the Cowboys go no further than where they got to this season.

If they want to go further they need to have Romo throw beyond this years performance (hopefully he will not have niggling injury issues), Demarco will have to learn to both run and catch his TD's, making him even more dangerous, Dez has to be how he has been this season, Terrence Williams just has to improve a tiny bit, but the big things next season to be a whole lot better is Witten and the defense. And Witten has done that in the past. And if Witten is no longer able to do what he has done in the past, maybe a new young upstart or a good TE during the off season to help the Cowboys go even further next year.

And of course, replacing Romo is going to have to happen because he is not going to be there forever. And protect the guy a bit better offensive line, in his last 10 games they guy got sacked 27 times. And you lucked out by having played Washington away, Chicago away, Jacksonville, Giants and a terrible colts defense on the 21st of December because there were games he got sacked 4, 5 or 6 times and that is a bit much.

 

[StillBallin75]

Agreed. I was having a discussion with some people the other day who pointed out that almost every coach has at least played some college football. Clearly there is a stigma that you have had to have played the game to coach it, rather than to understand the game and the situations. Football seems to be the last American sport to realize that the old methods aren't necessarily the right methods.

In baseball, they are employing major shifts, intentionally walking more guys, not bunting with power hitters, etc. They understand the ideas of risk/reward.
In basketball, patchwork teams being put together that can compete with teams built around allstars

Football still suffers from the "oh that'll never work in this league" syndrome. It happened in basketball. It happened in baseball. Football just needs to catch up. Guys don't necessarily need to waste away 3 years in college first. Linemen can catch passes. Quarterbacks can run. The patriots constantly run the numbers and come out ahead.

They ran the ball 0 times in the 2nd half against baltimore (am I right about that or did I make that stat up? I think I'm right). They have different players catching passes. In an AFC title game, an offensive lineman caught his first ever pass to for a TD. Are you ****ing kidding me?

But Ron Rivera will never get that. Neither will McCarthy. It's going to take the Chip Kellys and Belichicks of the game to push the NFL into advanced stats and analytics.

Actually think that Ron is starting to get it

Carolina Panthers' 'Riverboat Ron' Rivera backing decisions with big data | CharlotteObserver.com

 

[StillBallin75]

Agreed. I was having a discussion with some people the other day who pointed out that almost every coach has at least played some college football. Clearly there is a stigma that you have had to have played the game to coach it, rather than to understand the game and the situations. Football seems to be the last American sport to realize that the old methods aren't necessarily the right methods.

In baseball, they are employing major shifts, intentionally walking more guys, not bunting with power hitters, etc. They understand the ideas of risk/reward.
In basketball, patchwork teams being put together that can compete with teams built around allstars

Football still suffers from the "oh that'll never work in this league" syndrome. It happened in basketball. It happened in baseball. Football just needs to catch up. Guys don't necessarily need to waste away 3 years in college first. Linemen can catch passes. Quarterbacks can run. The patriots constantly run the numbers and come out ahead.

They ran the ball 0 times in the 2nd half against baltimore (am I right about that or did I make that stat up? I think I'm right). They have different players catching passes. In an AFC title game, an offensive lineman caught his first ever pass to for a TD. Are you ****ing kidding me?

But Ron Rivera will never get that. Neither will McCarthy. It's going to take the Chip Kellys and Belichicks of the game to push the NFL into advanced stats and analytics.

Last week I think the Patriots only runs were a Brady sneak and 3 kneeldowns in the 2nd half. Forever disproving the adage that "you have to have balance" or "you have to run" to win the game. No, you don't have to do anything. You attack the opponent where he is weakest. Belichick realized pretty quickly that trying to run against one of the league's best run defenses was futile.