IT’S OFFICIAL=> Ted Cruz Is Mathematically ELIMINATED from GOP Race – With Chart

[cabse5]

Re: Ted Cruz Is Mathematically ELIMINATED from GOP Race...

Most of them are Trump-tards or rabid libs.

Since Trump has the majority of delegates and the majority of votes in GOP primaries and caucuses, that would be a majority of Republicans.

 

[Casper]

You right but theres more trump supporters than tradtional republicans for cruz and trump fares much better nationally than cruz

Actually Trump does not even have support of 50% of Republican voters in the primaries so even if some of them are willing to support Trump that will still leave out a lot of voters. Thing is in the General Election the Dems start with an edge in Electoral College votes meaning the GOP candidate has to be able to win a large number of the Swing States and neither Trump or Cruz has the Leadership, Respect or Likeability it would take and as such are DOA. I am not happy with this election choices and will skip over the Presidential vote when I do vote, cannot bring myself to support any of those left, oh well another Presidential Election not worth spit, seems to be the norm these days.

 

[cabse5]

Oh I think it will still be close in the end but the GOP will be faced with a no win situation, leave Trump as the Candidate and lose many of the average Repubs or put Cruz in and lose the Trump supporters, either way the Dems will end up with the win handed to them. Another dismal election year.

Hillary also has such high unfavorables. Either Hillary's non-supporters stay non-supporting or side with Hillary in the general against the dreaded right. Either Trump non-supporters stay non-supporting or side with Trump in the general against the dreaded left.

My point being: there are votes to be poached from either candidate. There is coalescing to be done for either candidate. I don't think unfavorable ratings will stay as high in the general for either candidate.

Sidenote: I also think there will be some sort of shakeup in the political party system after this election.

 

[cabse5]

Actually Trump does not even have support of 50% of Republican voters in the primaries so even if some of them are willing to support Trump that will still leave out a lot of voters. Thing is in the General Election the Dems start with an edge in Electoral College votes meaning the GOP candidate has to be able to win a large number of the Swing States and neither Trump or Cruz has the Leadership, Respect or Likeability it would take and as such are DOA. I am not happy with this election choices and will skip over the Presidential vote when I do vote, cannot bring myself to support any of those left, oh well another Presidential Election not worth spit, seems to be the norm these days.

You refer to large electoral vote states that usually vote liberal like, for example, California (55) and New York (29). Trump has, at least, put New York in play for the GOPs. Trump also has, for example, put Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes and Florida's 29 electoral votes in play for the GOP.

Texas has 38 electoral votes. How will Texas go in this election?

 

[lpast]

Actually Trump does not even have support of 50% of Republican voters in the primaries so even if some of them are willing to support Trump that will still leave out a lot of voters. Thing is in the General Election the Dems start with an edge in Electoral College votes meaning the GOP candidate has to be able to win a large number of the Swing States and neither Trump or Cruz has the Leadership, Respect or Likeability it would take and as such are DOA. I am not happy with this election choices and will skip over the Presidential vote when I do vote, cannot bring myself to support any of those left, oh well another Presidential Election not worth spit, seems to be the norm these days.

Poll: Trump Reaches 50 Percent Support Nationally for the First Time

Poll: Trump Reaches 50 Percent Support Nationally for the First Time - NBC News

 

[jonny5]

They wont "give" cruz the nomination thats my humble opinion. He will not be given the nomination by the voters and the voters would rebel if they did that.
Trump has now over 50% popularity nationally. Cruz not only wont win the primary by the voters, he would get destroyed by hillary in the general. So what the GOP can do at convention and what they will do is two different things. If trump wasnt as popular as he is they would very well try and hand it to someone else. They wont do it now unless theyre nuts and have a deathwish

Maybe, but the fact is still, its not over. Trump can not win enough delegates until the very last day of voting.

 

[Cephus]

I just wish the populace had chosen better alternatives.

That would assume that there are better alternatives willing to run. Politics, by its very nature, attracts scumbags.

 

[jonny5]

Actually Trump does not even have support of 50% of Republican voters in the primaries so even if some of them are willing to support Trump that will still leave out a lot of voters. Thing is in the General Election the Dems start with an edge in Electoral College votes meaning the GOP candidate has to be able to win a large number of the Swing States and neither Trump or Cruz has the Leadership, Respect or Likeability it would take and as such are DOA. I am not happy with this election choices and will skip over the Presidential vote when I do vote, cannot bring myself to support any of those left, oh well another Presidential Election not worth spit, seems to be the norm these days.

In the end, turnout will matter. Im certainly not voting for President. How many others wont bother if its Clinton vs Trump? How many liberal Republicans hate Trump more than Clinton?

 

[Casper]

Hillary also has such high unfavorables. Either Hillary's non-supporters stay non-supporting or side with Hillary in the general against the dreaded right. Either Trump non-supporters stay non-supporting or side with Trump in the general against the dreaded left.

My point being: there are votes to be poached from either candidate. There is coalescing to be done for either candidate. I don't think unfavorable ratings will stay as high in the general for either candidate.

Sidenote: I also think there will be some sort of shakeup in the political party system after this election.

I think enough Bernie fans will back Hillary to win the General easily.

I agree. The GOP first, I would guess next year, and in the not too distant future the DNC will go through a similar parting of the ways, the Parties have become too big to represent all of those under one tent. I find the break ups a welcome possibility and believe it will be good for American politics, but who knows.

 

[Casper]

You refer to large electoral vote states that usually vote liberal like, for example, California (55) and New York (29). Trump has, at least, put New York in play for the GOPs. Trump also has, for example, put Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes and Florida's 29 electoral votes in play for the GOP.

Texas has 38 electoral votes. How will Texas go in this election?

I doubt NY will go anywhere near to Trump.

GOP, as usual.

 

[Casper]

Poll: Trump Reaches 50 Percent Support Nationally for the First Time

Poll: Trump Reaches 50 Percent Support Nationally for the First Time - NBC News

In the GOP, that leaves waaaay more than 50% of Americans that oppose him.

 

[fmw]

In the GOP, that leaves waaaay more than 50% of Americans that oppose him.

So there is more than 100%?

 

[yankintx]

In the GOP, that leaves waaaay more than 50% of Americans that oppose him.

I like how the OP left out one tiny bit of info in his post, that 50% is among Republicans.

 

[cpwill]

Hillary also has such high unfavorables.

She has high unfavorables. They are, however, not nearly as bad as Trump's.

RCP Average for Clinton Favorable/Unfavorable is -14%. For Donald Trump it is -35.1%.

Either Hillary's non-supporters stay non-supporting or side with Hillary in the general against the dreaded right. Either Trump non-supporters stay non-supporting or side with Trump in the general against the dreaded left.

My point being: there are votes to be poached from either candidate. There is coalescing to be done for either candidate. I don't think unfavorable ratings will stay as high in the general for either candidate.

Hm. The point I would make about non-supporting and poaching is that Trump creates fear in the Democrat base more than Hillary does in the GOP base.

Sidenote: I also think there will be some sort of shakeup in the political party system after this election.

I would concur with that. We had the best chance to get conservative reforms put into policy in a generation, and a chunk of our party decided to throw it away by throwing a tantrum. In that, they were enabled by a cowardly party leadership and a multiplicity of cravenly self-interested candidates. There will be a reckoning.

 

[Casper]

So there is more than 100%?

Close to 100% of Dem, the majority of real Independents and more than 25% of Repubs would oppose Trump. Do the math.

 

[Casper]

I like how the OP left out one tiny bit of info in his post, that 50% is among Republicans.

The Devil is always in the Details.

 

[cpwill]

I like how the OP left out one tiny bit of info in his post, that 50% is among Republicans.

I am not positive that a lot of the Trump base really gets that difference, or feels the need to highlight it. There seems to be an assumption that the General Electorate will just be a bigger version of the GOP primary one.

 

[jamesrage]

Re: Ted Cruz Is Mathematically ELIMINATED from GOP Race...

Since Trump has the majority of delegates and the majority of votes in GOP primaries and caucuses, that would be a majority of Republicans.

1.A good chunk of those Trump voters are democrats who voted for him in open primary states or democrats who converted to republicans for the explicit purpose of voting for Trump.

OVER 100,000 DEMOCRAT VOTERS SWITCH PARTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA -- To Vote Trump
Why are voters changing their party affiliation this election cycle? - CBS News

20,000 Massachusetts Democrats switch parties before Super Tuesday | Washington Examiner

'Ditch and switch': Trump may be behind mass Democratic party exodus in Pa., experts say | PennLive.com

Out of fear or love, Trump driving Democrats, independents to Ohio?s GOP primary | The Columbus Dispatch

Will Trump Democrats play a role in the 2016 presidential race? - LA Times



2.Primaries generally have less voters than general elections.

 

[cabse5]

She has high unfavorables. They are, however, not nearly as bad as Trump's.

RCP Average for Clinton Favorable/Unfavorable is -14%. For Donald Trump it is -35.1%.



Hm. The point I would make about non-supporting and poaching is that Trump creates fear in the Democrat base more than Hillary does in the GOP base.



I would concur with that. We had the best chance to get conservative reforms put into policy in a generation, and a chunk of our party decided to throw it away by throwing a tantrum. In that, they were enabled by a cowardly party leadership and a multiplicity of cravenly self-interested candidates. There will be a reckoning.

cpwill, you don't mean conservative (an adjective) you mean Conservative (a noun)..tea party, neocon politics. An ideology with strong ties to christian religion and forceful military in all parts of the world, for example. Forceful US military in all parts of the world is not conservative politics it is Conservative politics.

 

[yankintx]

I am not positive that a lot of the Trump base really gets that difference, or feels the need to highlight it. There seems to be an assumption that the General Electorate will just be a bigger version of the GOP primary one.

I agree, one poster actually believes Trump will win in a landslide, delusional at best, or maybe just stoned lol Though I believe even pot heads can see the writing on the wall come Nov.

 

[joG]

That would assume that there are better alternatives willing to run. Politics, by its very nature, attracts scumbags.

Well, we have quite a crop this time and not all are horrible because they are scumbags. It is really a sad, sad show. The last two elections were bad, but this is the baddest I have seen.

 

[lpast]

In the GOP, that leaves waaaay more than 50% of Americans that oppose him.

Yeah I misread it, I just read it again

 

[lpast]

Maybe, but the fact is still, its not over. Trump can not win enough delegates until the very last day of voting.

I think you need to consider believing cruz is not getting the nod

 

[cpwill]

cpwill, you don't mean conservative (an adjective) you mean Conservative (a noun)..tea party, neocon politics. An ideology with strong ties to christian religion and forceful military in all parts of the world, for example. Forceful US military in all parts of the world is not conservative politics it is Conservative politics.

Considering our current laydown, it inhabits both - though there is a strong libertarian streak in Conservatism that would have us reduce that presence.

But no, "A Conservative" is a noun - it's a conservative person. Conservative, however, remains an adjective - an ideological descriptor. Conservatism is a noun - it's the ideology itself.

 

[cpwill]

I agree, one poster actually believes Trump will win in a landslide, delusional at best, or maybe just stoned lol Though I believe even pot heads can see the writing on the wall come Nov.

:shrug: there are relatively lower probability scenarios in which he wins (major exogenous events such as an economic collapse, major terror attack, Clinton gets arrested). A landslide, however, yeah, that's fairly delusional.