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ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2023

Rogue Valley

Lead or get out of the way
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Key Takeaways

- Russia claimed that Ukraine conducted a series of drone strikes against Moscow on May 30 as Russia again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed drones.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to downplay the drone attack on Moscow to avoid exposing the limited options he has to retaliate against Ukraine.
- The drone attack on Moscow generated varied responses from the Russian information space.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely attempting to conceal the high Russian losses in Ukraine by artificially inflating Ukrainian casualties in the war.
- EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell stated that Russia will not enter negotiations while trying to win the war.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove, and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a ground attack south of Kreminna.
- The tempo of Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction remains low as of May 30.
- Russian forces made marginal advances amid continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the southern axis.
- Russian officials are establishing domestic veteran support programs which likely aim to advertise the perks of military service in Russia.
- Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of providing pediatric healthcare. (these are war crimes)


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Ukraine's defense forces killed about 207,910 Russian invaders between February 24, 2022 and May 31, 2023, including 470 in the past day alone.



In the spotlight.....





"Ukraine had killed 80 Wagner Group fighters and wounded a further 119 as they retreated from Bakhmut."


"We know their names, we know their commanders and their combat potential."


"There's a potential UKR plan for "semi-encirclement" of Bakhmut and even retake the city after the Wagner withdrawal."


"They wanted to play hide and seek, but our gunners play better."


"The Russians tend to "run teeth first into the problem" before they start to work on solutions."


"It comes as the United Kingdom confirmed it would send Ukraine Storm Shadow cruise missiles."




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