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ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6, 2023

Rogue Valley

Lead or get out of the way
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Key Takeaways

-Damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delta. (this is Putin engaging in eco-terrorism)

-The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Ukrainian officials stated that the drop in the water level at the Kakhovka Reservoir should not affect the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
- Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces intentionally destroyed the KHPP dam and suggested that the Russian military did not prepare for subsequent flooding.
- Russian officials accused Ukrainian forces of destroying the KHPP dam and used the allegations to bolster ongoing efforts to portray Ukrainian assaults elsewhere in Ukraine as immediate failures.
- ISW has not yet observed clear evidence of what transpired at the KHPP on June 6 and is therefore unable to offer an independent assessment of responsibility at the time of this publication.
- Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike across Ukraine on the night of June 5-6.
- Russian sources claimed that the pro-Ukrainian all-Russian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russian Legion (LSR) are gone from a border settlement in Belgorod Oblast as of June 6.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to directly threaten the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Russian military command if they do not fulfill his demands.
- Ukrainian officials offered assurances that the damage to the dam and subsequent flooding will not impede Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks north and southwest of Bakhmut, and Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line.
- Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in southwestern Donetsk and in eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the Russian 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is part of the irregular 6th Division. (this unit blew up the Kakhovka dam)
- Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to use infrastructure projects to integrate occupied territories into Russia.




The Ukrainian military eliminated 880 ennemy soldiers in the past 24 hours.



In the spotlight.....





"The only threat [is] that we will have problems with the supply of water to Crimea."


"Russia blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam "to create insurmountable obstacles" for the Ukrainian military."


"Putin tried to commit a new level of aggression."


"We will now suffer serious losses, I am absolutely sure of this. We will certainly lose part of the territories."


"Moscow's troops have lost a total of 3,640 artillery systems since the outbreak of full-scale war in February 2022."


"Russia is reimporting parts for tanks and missiles previously sold to India and Myanmar, potentially to improve older weapons destined for use in Ukraine."





 
The Kakhovka Reservoir is 150 miles long by 14 miles wide. Average depth is 28 feet down to about 85.3 feet. Volume is 4,844,915,375,129.7 gallons. That's one big honking reservoir!
 
The Kakhovka Reservoir is 150 miles long by 14 miles wide. Average depth is 28 feet down to about 85.3 feet. Volume is 4,844,915,375,129.7 gallons. That's one big honking reservoir!
Or was...
 
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