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ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023

Rogue Valley

Lead or get out of the way
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Key Takeaways
  • Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive effort in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW’s standing assessment.
  • The Wagner Group’s outsized reliance on recruitment from penal colonies appears to be having increasing ramifications on Wagner’s combat capability.
  • Russia continues to deepen military and economic relations with Iran in an effort to engage in mutually beneficial sanctions evasion.
  • Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Ukrainian forces struck Russian concentration areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces likely conducted a failed offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast in the last 72 hours.
  • Russian forces have not made any confirmed territorial gains in Zaporizhia Oblast despite one Russian occupation official’s continued claims.
  • The occupation official may be pushing a narrative of Russian tactical successes in Zaporizhia Oblast to generate positive narratives to distract Russians from the lack of promised progress in Bakhmut.
  • The Kremlin’s efforts to professionalize the Russian Armed Forces are continuing to generate criticism among supporters of new Russian parallel military structures.
  • Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to integrate occupied territories into Russian social, administrative, and political systems and crack down on partisan dissent in occupied areas.





From February 24, 2022 to January 24, 2023, Ukraine’s Defense Forces of Ukraine eliminated nearly 122,170 Russian aggressors, including 690 in the past day alone.



In the spotlight.....





"These photos depict scenes of everyday life amid the fighting."


"Putin would rather have his people starve than stop producing weapons."


More and more, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is reminding me of Viktor Orban.


"Twelve countries have agreed to supply Ukraine with around 100 Leopard 2 tanks if the German government gives its consent."


"We have already spent over eight years negotiating with Russia."


"It was not immediately clear from his comments whether Ukraine itself or the West had made the alleged offer."



 
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