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ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back.

TheDemSocialist

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Fallujah, the major Iraqi city that ISIS has held since January 2014, has officially been retaken. Iraqi army troops seized the last ISIS-controlled district in the city on Sunday, with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi appearing on television to give a victory speech. The city that ISIS has held longer than any other in Iraq is, for the moment, out of the militant group's hands.
This is the beginning of the end for ISIS's territorial control in Iraq. After Fallujah, there's only one more urban center in ISIS's possession: Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city. ISIS's defeat in Fallujah, a longtime stronghold, reveals that it's now no longer a question of if but when Mosul falls to the Iraqi government.


But while Iraq is on the verge of ending ISIS's reign of terror, that's no longer enough. Now that the ISIS endgame is approaching, the country needs to get much better at addressing the root causes of ISIS's rise — most notably, deep sectarian tensions. These haven't gotten better over the course of the ISIS fight. In some ways, they've gotten worse.
So while ISIS's looming defeat is a cause for celebration, it's looking more and more like Iraq doesn't have a good plan for preventing it — or something like it — from rising again.


Read more @: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back.

Another major set back for ISIS. ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other city and now it has fallen to the Iraqi army and allied Iraqi army militias. It seems its only a matter of time before Mosul falls. However, sectarian divisions still run deep in Iraq, and if Iraq ever wants to see a stable government again they still have a long way to go.
 
Re: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back

Read more @: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back.

Another major set back for ISIS. ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other city and now it has fallen to the Iraqi army and allied Iraqi army militias. It seems its only a matter of time before Mosul falls. However, sectarian divisions still run deep in Iraq, and if Iraq ever wants to see a stable government again they still have a long way to go. [/FONT][/COLOR]

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I would be a bit jaundiced about words like "control" or "seized" or "held" or "complete".
 
Re: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back

So the biggest threat to ISIS are ...other Muslims.

And yet there are people who still claim we need to intervene because Muslims aren't doing enough to fight against terrorists...
 
Re: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back

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I would be a bit jaundiced about words like "control" or "seized" or "held" or "complete".

In general, I would too, but the fact that Fallujah fell so quickly (when I thought it was going to be a bloodbath) as well as its distance from the main front makes me think that, apart from IEDs and sleepers, Fallujah has been liberated. It's far more likely at this point that all of Anbar Province will be under the Iraqi flag by August than a successful attempt by the Islamic State to retake Fallujah.
 
Re: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back

In general, I would too, but the fact that Fallujah fell so quickly (when I thought it was going to be a bloodbath) as well as its distance from the main front makes me think that, apart from IEDs and sleepers, Fallujah has been liberated. It's far more likely at this point that all of Anbar Province will be under the Iraqi flag by August than a successful attempt by the Islamic State to retake Fallujah.

See, I think we're getting sucked in by the "State" nature of ISIL into forgetting that it's a hybrid organization. ISF lack the ability (at current) to "hold" terrain they seize against an insurgency, and the main way that they seem to be going about it is by letting the PMF engage in a murder & intimidation campaign against Sunni locals.
 
Re: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back

See, I think we're getting sucked in by the "State" nature of ISIL into forgetting that it's a hybrid organization. ISF lack the ability (at current) to "hold" terrain they seize against an insurgency, and the main way that they seem to be going about it is by letting the PMF engage in a murder & intimidation campaign against Sunni locals.
To what extent does the Islamic State really have the ability to do this, though? Petraeus managed to cripple them in 2008, and that was before they had the chance to impose their vicious tyranny on Sunni Iraq. No foreign power supports them in any meaningful way - in my view, the key requirement of any successful insurgency. While there probably will be an insurgency phase after the Islamic State is militarily kicked out of Iraq, I doubt that it will pose an existential threat to Iraq in the way that the Taliban challenges the Afghan state. Unless some unforeseen drama happens with regards to Kurdish independence, I'm hopeful that this war is the last violent hurdle that Iraq will have to face on its path to democracy and prosperity.
 
Re: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back

To what extent does the Islamic State really have the ability to do this, though? Petraeus managed to cripple them in 2008, and that was before they had the chance to impose their vicious tyranny on Sunni Iraq. No foreign power supports them in any meaningful way - in my view, the key requirement of any successful insurgency. While there probably will be an insurgency phase after the Islamic State is militarily kicked out of Iraq, I doubt that it will pose an existential threat to Iraq in the way that the Taliban challenges the Afghan state. Unless some unforeseen drama happens with regards to Kurdish independence, I'm hopeful that this war is the last violent hurdle that Iraq will have to face on its path to democracy and prosperity.

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That view. Um. Is not widely shared by the folks I know who are close to the problem set. It would be nice, though.


1. The Surge was effective because A) we were able to offer the Sunni something better worth coming to, along with support and protection, and B) because it was matched with an oversight effective and wide scoped CT effort.

Today, what we have to offer the Sunni is "Iranian backed Shia Islamist militias who might - or might not! - kill you and your family" (that's a tough sales pitch to make)... and our CT effort is limited in by scope and policy to minimum effectiveness necessary, rather than maximum effort possible.

2. The ability and willingness of the PMF to spend blood and treasure pushing north to take "worthless" Sunni land, and then spend more blood and treasure helping to dominate it, especially given IS's strategy of asymmetric attacks on Shia shrines to pull them back is... shall we say, "untested". The ability of the country ISF to successfully conduct large scale conventional maneuvers against ISIL without PMF support is... shall we say, "equally untested" (now comes the part where you say "but Fallujah!", and then I laugh until I cry... and then just keep crying...). Their ability to continue to dominate hostile terrain is the same.

3. The Islamic State functions as a State. Certainly more than AQI ever did. They are the "foreign power supporting them". Furthermore, the more we convince the Saudis and the Emirates that we are secretly either on Iran's side or uninterested in helping to defend then from her.... the greater the aperture opens for some of their money following north.

4. As a Living System, the Islamic State is capable of self sustaining and replicating. They have, internal to themselves, all necessary subsystems for doing so, and is capable of doing so in horrifically inventive ways.

Example: The Islamic State has been training it's boy children to fight and kill. When/If we push into core IS territory where they feel existentially threatened, that's a COA - force us to kill thousands of children in order to advance. How long do you think political will for that will last?

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk
 
Re: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back

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That view. Um. Is not widely shared by the folks I know who are close to the problem set. It would be nice, though.


1. The Surge was effective because A) we were able to offer the Sunni something better worth coming to, along with support and protection, and B) because it was matched with an oversight effective and wide scoped CT effort.

Today, what we have to offer the Sunni is "Iranian backed Shia Islamist militias who might - or might not! - kill you and your family" (that's a tough sales pitch to make)... and our CT effort is limited in by scope and policy to minimum effectiveness necessary, rather than maximum effort possible.

2. The ability and willingness of the PMF to spend blood and treasure pushing north to take "worthless" Sunni land, and then spend more blood and treasure helping to dominate it, especially given IS's strategy of asymmetric attacks on Shia shrines to pull them back is... shall we say, "untested". The ability of the country ISF to successfully conduct large scale conventional maneuvers against ISIL without PMF support is... shall we say, "equally untested" (now comes the part where you say "but Fallujah!", and then I laugh until I cry... and then just keep crying...). Their ability to continue to dominate hostile terrain is the same.

3. The Islamic State functions as a State. Certainly more than AQI ever did. They are the "foreign power supporting them". Furthermore, the more we convince the Saudis and the Emirates that we are secretly either on Iran's side or uninterested in helping to defend then from her.... the greater the aperture opens for some of their money following north.

4. As a Living System, the Islamic State is capable of self sustaining and replicating. They have, internal to themselves, all necessary subsystems for doing so, and is capable of doing so in horrifically inventive ways.

Example: The Islamic State has been training it's boy children to fight and kill. When/If we push into core IS territory where they feel existentially threatened, that's a COA - force us to kill thousands of children in order to advance. How long do you think political will for that will last?

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk
A sobering assessment.

I'm hoping that there are forces at play that you haven't taken into consideration or are unaware of that could alter this, but, it is only a hope.
 
Re: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back

A sobering assessment.

I'm hoping that there are forces at play that you haven't taken into consideration or are unaware of that could alter this, but, it is only a hope.

It's not impossible. ISIL really sucks to live under.

But it would require both Syria and Iraq regaining full control within their borders. I wouldn't bet anything I cared about on that happening soon.

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Re: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back

It's not impossible. ISIL really sucks to live under. But it would require both Syria and Iraq regaining full control within their borders. I wouldn't bet anything I cared about on that happening soon.

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That is probably the only realistic thing I can pin my hopes on.

This thing only gets solved when the radicals no longer have safe harbor within the Muslim community and that is going to take time. Probably generations.
 
Re: ISIS controlled Fallujah longer than any other Iraqi city. Iraq just took it back

Ahhhh, if only the baath party were in charge again.
 
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