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It's certainly a lot more likely, seeing as both parties have a lot of supporters already in Congress. Libertarians do not because they don't actually try to get people at the lower rungs elected. There isn't a ready support base in Congress for anything they might want to do.
Which is bascially the rub, they're really angling as blue state republicans and not as libertarians, because if by some stroke of magic they are elected they will not have a ready support base of libertarians to advance libertarian ideology.
And it's doubtful blue state red governor politics is likely to work either because getting elected as a "democrat" in a moderate state legislative district or a "republican" in the same is much different then being elected to congress where districts overwhelmingly favor the more extreme ends of ideology and bigger money is funneled to them.