Kelzie said:
Is this supposed to make me not trust polls? The first sentence is "Polls provide the best direct source of information about public opinion."
What's the deal? Don't like what the poll says? That's life.
If it were only that simple! First of all, you didnt read more than the first paragraph, if you would have read the next it said:
The only polls that should be reported are "scientific" polls. A number of the questions here will help you decide whether or not a poll is a "scientific" one worthy of coverage – or an unscientific survey without value.
Unscientific pseudo-polls are widespread and sometimes entertaining, but they never provide the kind of information that belongs in a serious report. Examples include 900-number call-in polls, man-on-the-street surveys, many Internet polls, shopping mall polls, and even the classic toilet tissue poll featuring pictures of the candidates on each roll.
One major distinguishing difference between scientific and unscientific polls is who picks the respondents for the survey. In a scientific poll, the pollster identifies and seeks out the people to be interviewed. In an unscientific poll, the respondents usually "volunteer" their opinions, selecting themselves for the poll.
What gal sited as a source was a political spin website.
Headline from source:
HOW IRAQ FEELS ABOUT THE OCCUPATION
The Second National Opinion Poll in Iraq
JNV Anti-War Briefing 56
(19 March 2004) Gal's Source
An obvious Anti-war website, that is using the poll results to spin a political view. (Also take the date down you will need it later.)
NCCP states:
In recent years, some political campaigns and special-interest groups have used a technique called "push polls" to spread rumors and even outright lies about opponents. These efforts are not polls, but political manipulation trying to hide behind the smokescreen of a public opinion survey.
"Push polls" are unethical and have been condemned by professional polling organizations.
#16 from NCCP
This poll was being used as a "Push poll" from the source in which gal cited.
Next to debate how was this poll taken? Gal cited it from
BBC -> which sourced their source to "Oxford Research International", which on the Oxford Research stated:
All interviews will be face‑to‑face in respondents’ homes.
Read Interviews and Quality and Control
NCCP States:
There are four main possibilities:
in person, by telephone, online or by mail. Most surveys are conducted by telephone, with the calls made by interviewers from a central location.
However, some surveys are still conducted by sending interviewers into people's homes to conduct the interviews.
Some surveys are conducted by mail.
In scientific polls, the pollster picks the people to receive the mail questionnaires. The respondent fills out the questionnaire and returns it.
NCCP
With a mail poll, you have more time to think about the question, and your answer.
Next I would like to criticize both polls that are used on this thread. Both Channel 4's and Oxfords. Oxfords poll was taken
Feburary 2004 (must have pdf reader) with a sample size of 2500 as used in article. Channel 4's poll that was cited from ->YouGov polls, was taken back in "8th - 10th July 2003" and sample size 798 {Refer to gal for poll results sheet}(keep this you will need it), which is also out of date. Rember the date in which gal cited this poll, was one year out of date the article was published online, and 2 years out of date being in the year. 2005. But thats a mouthful, lets talk about YouGov. First of all YouGov does internet polls, which if you read the top of this page, are proven unscientific (about internet polls)
#10 NCCP. YouGove stated:
YouGov is a research company using online panels to provide research for public policy, market research, and stakeholder consultation.
YouGov
. Also another interesting feature was how they conduct polls. Read this statement off the same page:
Because of the efficiencies of automated fieldwork (panel respondents - incentivised by cash payments - complete surveys online on receipt of an email), significant cost-savings are passed on to the client.
Enough said. Next to criticize sample size of the polls. Oxfords sample size which was the most accurate of the 2 polls. Their sample size was 2500 people interviewed, 2700 needed for it to be proportionate to the population, to be considered as a scientific poll.
Read Sampling Now the YouGov poll had 798 people who had taken it online. Now you can see the obvious difference between the two polls. 798 is no where near proportionate to the 24,683,313 (July 2003 )
Iraqi Population during YouGov Poll Iraqies that live there, thus this is NOT a scientific poll.
So we have some polls that pay people to take them, both were found in some way unscientific, both were out-of-date, and both were used by the source cited by gal for political spin, which in turn is called a "Push Poll". So my argument isn't about the knowledge you thought you gained off of it, but not to trust them period. Polls only support the views in which they are used and not what they are originally meant for, much less can be used as credible as evidence as a source.
DONT TRUST POLLS, AND I MEAN ANY OF THEM!