Is Afghanistan a "black hole" country ?

[Tender Branson]

Every major empire there has failed to turn things around in this country.

The British Empire had to leave after massive losses, the Soviets were badly beaten and the US/NATO just left after 20 years and after achieving nothing and investing huge amounts of war material and money into the country.

And now China is lining up to be next to throw their tentacles around Afghanistan.

Yet, despite some isolated pockets of freedom and liberalism in some city parts of Kabul, 99% of the country and its people are stuck in the deepest Middle Age. A vast majority of the population is still illiterate and patriarchy and poverty reigns.

Now the Taliban are on the outskirts of every major city and are likely to take over soon again.

Nothing has really changed there.

 

[TheParser]

And now China is lining up to be next to throw their tentacles around Afghanistan.

Here's hoping that it is hoist by its own petard.

China is aching for a breaking.

It needs to stay in its lane.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Every major empire there has failed to turn things around in this country.

The British Empire had to leave after massive losses, the Soviets were badly beaten and the US/NATO just left after 20 years and after achieving nothing and investing huge amounts of war material and money into the country.

And now China is lining up to be next to throw their tentacles around Afghanistan.

Yet, despite some isolated pockets of freedom and liberalism in some city parts of Kabul, 99% of the country and its people are stuck in the deepest Middle Age. A vast majority of the population is still illiterate and patriarchy and poverty reigns.

Now the Taliban are on the outskirts of every major city and are likely to take over soon again.

Nothing has really changed there.

I think China will do well as long as they don’t try to impose ideology.

the Soviets tried to impose a communist collaborator regime, and we tried to impose globohomo. If China merely wants cooperation with the locals to limited ends they may do well

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

Here's hoping that it is hoist by its own petard.

China is aching for a breaking.

It needs to stay in its lane.

 

[Gatsby]

Yes, it's one of the world's poorest and most perpetually failed states, due to a combination of shitty geography and shitty culture (which is itself a result of shitty geography).

The only way Afghanistan will ever succeed is if Pakistan first succeeds, and then lets Afghanistan use its ports. Success also won't be on the horizon for Afghanistan until the technology improves for desalinating and moving lots of water inland to high altitudes. Right now that's just unaffordably expensive.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Every major empire there has failed to turn things around in this country.

The British Empire had to leave after massive losses, the Soviets were badly beaten and the US/NATO just left after 20 years and after achieving nothing and investing huge amounts of war material and money into the country.

And now China is lining up to be next to throw their tentacles around Afghanistan.

Yet, despite some isolated pockets of freedom and liberalism in some city parts of Kabul, 99% of the country and its people are stuck in the deepest Middle Age. A vast majority of the population is still illiterate and patriarchy and poverty reigns.

Now the Taliban are on the outskirts of every major city and are likely to take over soon again.

Nothing has really changed there.

China mainly wants to gain control of their mineral rights and to establish a larger ‘presence in the region’ - the rest (conditions for the locals) is not going to interest them much.

 

[notquiteright]

Yes, it's one of the world's poorest and most perpetually failed states, due to a combination of shitty geography and shitty culture (which is itself a result of shitty geography).

The only way Afghanistan will ever succeed is if Pakistan first succeeds, and then lets Afghanistan use its ports. Success also won't be on the horizon for Afghanistan until the technology improves for desalinating and moving lots of water inland to high altitudes. Right now that's just unaffordably expensive.

Actually it isn't a failed state. It does doesn't want to be a 'modern' state, but rather a tribal one. We look down on less advanced societies and many times fail to bring them 'out' of their condition. While unintended we cause great harm by destroying their society and allowing predators to loot the land. I wouldn't want to live there and many there wouldn't want to live here.

It is what it is and not any outsiders to fix....

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I think China will do well as long as they don’t try to impose ideology.

the Soviets tried to impose a communist collaborator regime, and we tried to impose globohomo. If China merely wants cooperation with the locals to limited ends they may do well

In short, as long as China goes along with a policy of "Afghanistan for the Afghans" and "An Afghan government of the Afghans, by the Afghans, and for the Afghans (with a little bit of profit on the side for us)" they aren't likely to get badly burned in the relationship.

 

[mrjurrs]

Ask Alexander the Great.