Re: Iraq War planned since Bush 1 invaded, Clinton admin. wanted it, 9/11 was the exc
Iriemon said:
I agree with that as long as US occupational forces are there to maintain a US approved government.
Otherwise, why would you suppose this is an impossibility? We are arming the Shiites as fast as we can. Are you claiming there are no Shiites in Iraq? No shiite fundamentalists? Or is your point the shiites are a democracy loving people so there is no risk they will take power in Iraq and turn it into a Shiite theocracy?
Study the region. I'll just re-post an earlier commentary. I tire of re-inventing the wheel.....
No matter how well things go in Iraq, count on fresh predictions of catastrophe. First, the war was going to be a bloodbath. Next, the occupation was bound to fail. Then, Iraq's first free elections were going to be a disaster. Held on schedule, the elections were remarkably successful. Iraqis risked their lives to cast ballots. After this, the new Iraqi Constitution was going to be voted down. Knowing what I know of the social politics of the country, this too will prove the voices of doom wrong. Now the voices that have been wrong about everything else insist Iraq will become "another Iran."
That's dead wrong. Part of the problem is ignorance by some in the news media. Columnists write about the topic of the moment, whether they understand the subject or not. News shows fill segments with talking heads, few of whom have firsthand experience. Far more disheartening are American partisans who would rather see Iraq fail miserably than allow the Bush administration a success. But Iraq will not become a second Iran.
Although a coalition backed by the senior Shiite clergy won nearly half the votes, Tehran won't dominate Baghdad. Iraqi Shiites have deep differences with their Iranian counterparts. The ethnic rivalry between Arabs and Persians predates the coming of Islam. Saddam Hussein trusted his Arab Shiite soldiers to fight their Iranian co-religionists. Did Christianity unite Europe's hereditary enemies? Of course not.
Will the new Iraq have ties to Iran? Of course. Iraqis have to live with their restive neighbor. Even the pro-American Kurds will seek a functional cross-border relationship. As governor of Texas, George W. Bush developed useful ties with his Mexican counterparts, but he didn't sell Texas back to Mexico. During Saddam's reign of terror, many Iraqis, both Shiite clerics and common citizens, found asylum in Iran. When Saddam gassed the Kurds, Iran opened its borders to thousands of terrified refugees. And trade, legal and illegal, has continued down the centuries. But Iran's government of mullahs will never be a model for Iraq.
Iraq's key clerics understand that the Iranian model has failed. Far from inaugurating a perfect society, the tyranny of the mullahs alienated the young from religion and generated cynicism toward the clergy. Ayatollah Khomeini's revolution brutalized Islam. Iraq's mullahs likely will press for greater social strictures than we would like to see, but they're not going to bind themselves to an Iranian government that they view as living on borrowed time. There's a greater likelihood that Iraq's free elections will inspire the people of Iran. About 70% of Iran's population is younger than 30, and disenchanted. Iraqi democracy may prove the downfall of Iran's mullahs, not the other way around.