Iraq Violent Death Rates Dropping

[oldreliable67]

The BBC says:

In September, 884 civilians were killed by violence, less than half the figure for August, the government said.

The BBC's Jon Brain in Baghdad says the figures suggest the so-called surge involving 30,000 extra US troops is having some success.

September also saw the lowest number of US troops killed for more than a year.

There were 62 US military fatalities - the fewest in a single month since July 2006.

 

[Volker]

Another possible explanation is that ethnical cleansing works and the different groups don't meet each other that often anymore.

 

[Hoot]

Another possible explanation is that ethnical cleansing works and the different groups don't meet each other that often anymore.

Exactly, and it doesn't hurt that 2.5 million Iraqi's have left the country and another 2.2 million have been displaced within their own nation.

 

[Volker]

Exactly, and it doesn't hurt that 2.5 million Iraqi's have left the country and another 2.2 million have been displaced within their own nation.

I did not know, that there are so many refugees. These are more than 16%, if you don't count the Kurds, this would be over 20%. I don't know, if there are many Kurdish refugees from Iraq, it does not make much sense for me for them to flee somewhere, if they live in Kurdish territories.

 

[ReverendHellh0und]

I did not know, that there are so many refugees. These are more than 16%, if you don't count the Kurds, this would be over 20%. I don't know, if there are many Kurdish refugees from Iraq, it does not make much sense for me for them to flee somewhere, if they live in Kurdish territories.

The Kurds are doing just fine up north.....

 

[shuamort]

Using the data from IBC, the trending looks still worse from the first couple years. (Feel free to find your own source for figures).

If we can see some consistency instead of just a random month being less, then we'll see progress. Otherwise, the stats aren't worth much in gauging what's going on.

 

[Gladiator]

Brookings Institute numbers look better for September, and trending downward from August.

Except the number of refugees is estimated ate 60,000 per month, from June through September. See Page 14.

Brookings 65 Page Report, PDF
http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf


Page 8 shows that thenumver of Iraqi Police deaths per month are declining, and Page 9 shows that the number of Iraq Police Patrols per Week and Joint Security Stations are increasing.

.

 

[cherokee]

Brookings Institute numbers look better for September, and trending downward from August.

Except the number of refugees is estimated ate 60,000 per month, from June through September. See Page 14.

Brookings 65 Page Report, PDF
http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf


Page 8 shows that thenumver of Iraqi Police deaths per month are declining, and Page 9 shows that the number of Iraq Police Patrols per Week and Joint Security Stations are increasing.

.

Did they take in the consideration the drug use in Iraq?.....:roll:

 

[oldreliable67]

Using the data from IBC, the trending looks still worse from the first couple years.

Looking at the chart you offered, the striking feature (to me, anyway) is the upsurge in deaths that began in the beginning of 2006 and how we are now back very close to levels that prevailed prior to that upsurge. Al-Qaeda-Which- Is-Not-In-Iraq tactics for promoting sectarian violence succeeded. We responded with the surge and changed tactics, which, thus far, appear to be successfully reversing the trend of violence. A long way to go yet, but as further evidence of movement in the right direction, consider the following from the CSM:

U.S. takes Anbar model to Iraqi Shiites

A variation on a successful effort appears to be curbing attacks south of Baghdad.

The violence has dropped dramatically, say US commanders, in the towns surrounding this base in northern Babil Province, south of Baghdad.

In May, four improvised explosive device (IED) attacks targeted the battalion; none in August, says Maj. Craig Whiteside, executive officer of the 1st Battalion of the 501st Infantry Regiment. Fewer undetonated IEDs have been found – five in May and two in August. Indirect fire and small-arms violence have also dropped from about a dozen incidents in May to less than three in August.

The reason, they say, is that the same approach that won success in Anbar Province, where the Marines gained support of Sunni tribesmen against Al Qaeda, is taking hold in mixed-sectarian areas. But here, Americans have enlisted Shiites frustrated with extremists from such groups as the Mahdi Army, run by Moqtada al-Sadr.

Across the Euphrates River Valley, known to the military as the southern belts of Baghdad, about 14,000 Shiite and Sunni "concerned citizens" are being paid to man checkpoints and patrol roads in an effort to prevent attacks from violent extremism of either sect.

Largely untrained and armed with weapons they already own, the citizens wear armbands and monitor traffic along the roads, keeping watch to ensure no outsiders or other extremist elements come through to bury roadside bombs. If they fail to keep violence out, they could lose their monthly paycheck. Ultimately, the idea is that they will become members of the Iraq security forces.

"They are making their community safe," says Army Capt. Charles Levine, one of the company commanders here. His battalion has recruited more than 1,300 participants since mid-September. A little less than half of them are Shiite.

 

[PeteEU]

The Iraqi goverment aint exactly the most reliable source. Lots of deaths dont get reported to the officals, and then there are the officials who's bias can be questioned. Plus as I stated in another thred... September was ramadan month, which usually means less activity.

 

[oldreliable67]

The Iraqi goverment aint exactly the most reliable source. Lots of deaths dont get reported to the officals, and then there are the officials who's bias can be questioned. Plus as I stated in another thred... September was ramadan month, which usually means less activity.

Then lets look at it from AQ's point of view. In his last letter before his demise, doomed senior Al Qaida chief wrote: 'We are so desperate for your help'

The U.S. military is eliminating Al Qaida's chain of command in Iraq.

Officials said several leading aides to Al Qaida network chief Abu Ayoub Al Masri have been killed by the U.S.-led coalition. They said two out of the four foreign aides of Al Masri remain alive.

On Sept. 25, the U.S. military killed an Al Qaida chief deemed responsible for transporting foreign operatives to Iraq. The Al Qaida commander, identified as Abu Osama Al Tunisi, was killed in a U.S. air strike as he met his colleagues in Musayib, about 60 kilometers south of Baghdad.

Shortly before he died, Al Tunisi wrote a letter that warned of a threat to Al Qaida operations in Karkh. The lettter, found by the U.S. military, sought guidance from Al Qaida leaders amid coalition operations that hampered Al Tunisi's network.

"We are so desperate for your help," the letter read.

While the recent decline in violent deaths and the concomitant deaths/capture of senior AQI operatives is certainly good news, one should not count out AQI just yet. Lulls in activity have too often been ended with a demonstration by AQI that they still have martyrs ready and willing to do whatever is necessary to partner with 72 virgins in paradise.

 

[Gladiator]

Dear Cherokee,

Drug use figures in Iraq are apparently not being collected by anyone, that I have found.


Link to a Breaking News thread on the reduction of Death in Iraq in September, 2007:

http://www.debatepolitics.com/breaking-news/23899-iraqi-deaths-fall-50-percent.html


From Old Reliable Post #9

"Largely untrained and armed with weapons they already own, the citizens wear armbands and monitor traffic along the roads, keeping watch to ensure no outsiders or other extremist elements come through to bury roadside bombs"

The involvement of more Iraqi local residents in security issues creates more Social Deterrence, which, in my theory, should reduce violence.


.

 

[oldreliable67]

From Old Reliable Post #9

"Largely untrained and armed with weapons they already own, the citizens wear armbands and monitor traffic along the roads, keeping watch to ensure no outsiders or other extremist elements come through to bury roadside bombs"

The involvement of more Iraqi local residents in security issues creates more Social Deterrence, which, in my theory, should reduce violence.

Indeed. Moreover, this pressure from the "bottom up" that, if it continues to grow, will eventually force the Iraqi national government into making the reforms and reconciliations at the national level that it has seemed to find so difficult thus far. This, IMO, is the very essence of successful counter-insurgency warfare.

 

[Joe Hill]

The BBC says:

Very comforting to fat Brit and Yank Couch potatoes, no doubt!

Number Of Iraqis Slaughtered In America's War on Iraq 1,080,903

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Number of U.S. Military Personnel Sacrificed (Officially acknowledged) In America's War On Iraq 3,808


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cost of U.S. War and Occupation of Iraq

$456,797,303,031

 

[Joe Hill]

Oh, and incidentally, the Occupation Forces have redefined death for us poor ignorant couch potatoes. Bodies found with bullet wounds in the front of the head instead of the back no longer show up as political assasinations but get shunted over to "Iraqi police" :lol: murder statistics. Imperialism triumphs after all! :2razz:

 

[Iriemon]

Looking at that poster is some kind of nightmare.

I wish I could honestly say its just bullshit propoganda; unfortunately, too much of it is based in truth.

What a shameful time to be an American, the country that used to be that shining city on the hill. What have we done to her proud history and the traditions of justice, rule of law, human rights that she used to stand for.

Makes me very sad.

 

[Joe Hill]

The Kurds are doing just fine up north.....

You might have missed the fact that the Turkish Army has been attacking the Kurds and are massed to inflict further damage. The US seems too distracted to notice. They were too distracted during the sanctions period to notice Turkish air attacks on Kurdish villages.

More Bad News

By Conor Foley

Just when you thought things could not get any worse in Iraq, Turkey's prime minister announces that he has authorised a possible cross-border military operation against Kurdish guerrillas there.

More bad news

 

[ReverendHellh0und]

Very comforting to fat Brit and Yank Couch potatoes, no doubt!

Number Of Iraqis Slaughtered In America's War on Iraq 1,080,903

Such a liar..... MY man, do you have any real proof of that absurd number?


Plus

1. Were are the bodies?

2. Who killed them?



You make such sh1t up this ought to be entertaining.... :lol:

 

[Gladiator]

Dear Reverend,

What are your numbers?

The real question is; are air strikes the best path to Habeus Corpus and the ideal democracy under a Rule of LAW?

Excessive use of violence against an insurgency empowers the insurgency. Using strategies other than arrest, makes enemies.

The numbers are not an issue to me. Stupidity is the issue.

1 Iraqi civilian death is too many.

If there is gunfire, back off, call in reinforcements and surrond the area. With good Armor, there is no reason to shoot back. The West should learn how to make friends of those we seek to convert to Democracy. The US Military should be trained in how to win the peace.


.

 

[DivineComedy]

Another possible explanation is that ethnical cleansing works and the different groups don't meet each other that often anymore.

Like when they run out of villages to burn in the Sudan, we do not blame the United Nations (of tyrants too) for the lack of troops, it must be our leaders and not their leader’s attitude and analysis that is responsible for the mess.

“On the basis of what we said about Iraq while confronting aggressions, the world now needs to abort the US aggressive schemes, including its aggression on the Afghan people, which must stop.
Again we say that when someone feels that he is unjustly treated, and no one is repulsing or stopping the injustice inflicted on him, he personally seeks ways and means for lifting that justice. Of course, not everyone is capable of finding the best way for lifting the injustice inflicted on him. People resort to what they think is the best way according to their own ideas, and they are not all capable of reaching out for what is beyond what is available to arrive to the best idea or means.
To find the best way, after having found their way to God and His rights, those who are inflicted by injustice need not to be isolated from their natural milieu, or be ignored deliberately, or as a result of mis-appreciation, by the officials in this milieu. They should, rather, be reassured and helped to save themselves, and their surroundings.” (Saddam Hussein Shabban 13, 1422 H. October 29, 2001.)

“The Arab League has rejected any sanctions or international military intervention as a response to the crisis in Sudan's Darfur region…On 30 July, a UN resolution gave Sudan 30 days to bring Arab militia under control or face international action.” (Monday, 9 August, 2004, 03:23 GMT 04:23 UK) BBC NEWS | World | Africa | Arab League backs Sudan on Darfur

“Some voices have risen on the part of some peoples, journalists, writers, and, in a very restricted way, the voices of those who are preparing themselves, in the shadow, to replace the rulers there. Nevertheless, the latter are still hesitant voices that deal with the situation in the light of the balance of interests of the posts they expect to occupy, and of the influence of the centers of power.” (Saddam Hussein Shabban 13, 1422 H. October 29, 2001.)

 

[ReverendHellh0und]

Dear Reverend,

What are your numbers?

The real question is; are air strikes the best path to Habeus Corpus and the ideal democracy under a Rule of LAW?

Excessive use of violence against an insurgency empowers the insurgency. Using strategies other than arrest, makes enemies.

The numbers are not an issue to me. Stupidity is the issue.

1 Iraqi civilian death is too many.

If there is gunfire, back off, call in reinforcements and surrond the area. With good Armor, there is no reason to shoot back. The West should learn how to make friends of those we seek to convert to Democracy. The US Military should be trained in how to win the peace.


.

Wait, so out of the over a million claimed (even though iraq body count has it around 75k....) how many were the direct result of US munitions and how many has been iraqi on iraqi?


Careful now....

 

[Joe Hill]

UN Delayed Grim Iraq Report at U.S. Request

A new UN report says Iraq is immersed in an “ever-deepening humanitarian crisis.” Thousands of Iraqis are fleeing their homes by the month, indiscriminant killings continue apace, and prison torture is routine. The UN Assistance Mission for Iraq found that at least one hundred civilians were killed in U.S.-led bombings or raids over a three-month period ending in July. The toll is believed to be higher because the Iraqi government still refuses to release casualty figures. The report also warns of an increase in violence against women. In the northern Kurdish region, more than two hundred fifty women were killed in so-called ‘honor’ killings in the first half of this year. Most of the victims were burnt alive. The grim report marks a sharp contrast to last month’s Congressional testimony from top U.S. officials in Iraq. The Washington Post reports the UN completed the report in August but delayed its release at the request of U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker. Crocker was among those to testify.Democracy Now! | Headlines for October 12, 2007

We get clips of Gen. Petraus and huge armed contingent gladhanding cowed Iraqis in who-knows-where, Baghdad and chirping corporate news media reporting less deaths. Why would anyone believe all these paid liars after their complicity in beginning this disaster in the first place?

 

[Jaguar b. p.]

Wait, so out of the over a million claimed how many were the direct result of US munitions and how many has been iraqi on iraqi?

Bush's valet Nuri al-Maliki has put the number of Iraqis killed by the insurrection at 150,000 so the rest would be Iraqis killed by the Coalition (850,000).

Incidentally I don't even believe the 150k number, so the Coalition's share could be even larger

Of course it would be cool if it really was 150k, because as you know the object of the game on the domestic front is to eliminate Iraqi Shia animals

 

[TheHonestTruth]

Even if we are falsifying these new numbers as I suspect we may be, lets just declare victory and leave.

We should just fake the numbers, and get out. We're accomplishing nothing by standing in their streets except to act as a recruiting tool for radical elements. Time to leave this failed experiment.

 

[Joe Hill]

The Iraqi goverment aint exactly the most reliable source. Lots of deaths dont get reported to the officals, and then there are the officials who's bias can be questioned. Plus as I stated in another thred... September was ramadan month, which usually means less activity.

No source of info on Iraqi casualties is as consistently unreliable as the US military Occupation. We have this from Democracy Now!: radio and TV news

Displaced Iraqis Quadruple Since U.S. Surge
In Iraq, new figures show the number of displaced Iraqis has quadrupled under the so-called U.S. troop surge that began earlier this year. According to the Iraqi Red Crescent, two-point three million people have been forced to flee their homes. Eight in ten were residents of Baghdad.

"Liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the people, who have a right. .. and a desire to know; but besides this, they have a right, an indisputable, unalienable, indefeasible, divine right to that most dreaded and envied kind of knowledge, I mean of the characters and conduct of their rulers." - John Adams