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Iran Nuclear Deal

drz-400

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Something I'm trying to understand. Iran has been working on a nuclear program for years. They have been willing to withstand sanctions for their nuclear program for a very long time. Over the course of this time they have been able to get closer and closer to gaining the ability to create a nuclear weapon. There were estimates that they were only 2-3 months away from being able to enrich enough uranium when this deal was struck. So why all of a sudden would Iran want to strike a deal with us when they have gotten so close and have sacrificed so much for its nuclear program? Might be a stupid question... but none of this makes sense to me.
 
Something I'm trying to understand. Iran has been working on a nuclear program for years. They have been willing to withstand sanctions for their nuclear program for a very long time. Over the course of this time they have been able to get closer and closer to gaining the ability to create a nuclear weapon. There were estimates that they were only 2-3 months away from being able to enrich enough uranium when this deal was struck. So why all of a sudden would Iran want to strike a deal with us when they have gotten so close and have sacrificed so much for its nuclear program? Might be a stupid question... but none of this makes sense to me.

If I had to venture a guess, I would imagine it was a combination of several factors. First and foremost, the accumulation of the impacts of those sanctions resulted in the second and third point. The second point was the accumulation of sanctions (and the general tone of willingness to engage by the Obama administration) resulted in an election wherein the candidate who promised to be the most wiling to engage with the West was brought into the presidency. And the third point is that there was an evaluation made by the Iranian regime that realized holding a nuclear bomb does not result in very much benefit compared to the cost of increased sanctions and increased isolation that a nuclear bomb would bring.
 
If I had to venture a guess, I would imagine it was a combination of several factors. First and foremost, the accumulation of the impacts of those sanctions resulted in the second and third point. The second point was the accumulation of sanctions (and the general tone of willingness to engage by the Obama administration) resulted in an election wherein the candidate who promised to be the most wiling to engage with the West was brought into the presidency. And the third point is that there was an evaluation made by the Iranian regime that realized holding a nuclear bomb does not result in very much benefit compared to the cost of increased sanctions and increased isolation that a nuclear bomb would bring.

Correct me if I'm wrong though... many people have said that even without the US the P5+1 would have simply resumed trade with Iran rendering any sanctions useless. So I'm not sure it was due to Obama's willingness to deal but because he felt forced to because whatever framework we had in place was going to fall apart. Again... on that backdrop why would Iran have any incentive to strike a deal if they knew regardless the sanctions regime was about to fall apart?
 
Correct me if I'm wrong though... many people have said that even without the US the P5+1 would have simply resumed trade with Iran rendering any sanctions useless. So I'm not sure it was due to Obama's willingness to deal but because he felt forced to because whatever framework we had in place was going to fall apart. Again... on that backdrop why would Iran have any incentive to strike a deal if they knew regardless the sanctions regime was about to fall apart?

It is true that many of our allies (and some who were merely aligned with the U.S. on this particular point) were threatening to end their sanctions against Iran; however, a harsh stance by the United States or the E.U. (a stance that would probably remain harsh if Iran was unwilling to compromise at all) would most likely have quelled these threats out of a fear that these countries would face additional sanctions themselves.

In other words, while it is possible that Iran may have gained additional trading partners and some relief from sanctions, it is unlikely that the sanctions would have fallen apart completely or even to a very significant degree.
 
It is true that many of our allies (and some who were merely aligned with the U.S. on this particular point) were threatening to end their sanctions against Iran; however, a harsh stance by the United States or the E.U. (a stance that would probably remain harsh if Iran was unwilling to compromise at all) would most likely have quelled these threats out of a fear that these countries would face additional sanctions themselves.

In other words, while it is possible that Iran may have gained additional trading partners and some relief from sanctions, it is unlikely that the sanctions would have fallen apart completely or even to a very significant degree.

So then why wouldn't the US take a harsh stance?
 
Correct me if I'm wrong though... many people have said that even without the US the P5+1 would have simply resumed trade with Iran rendering any sanctions useless. So I'm not sure it was due to Obama's willingness to deal but because he felt forced to because whatever framework we had in place was going to fall apart. Again... on that backdrop why would Iran have any incentive to strike a deal if they knew regardless the sanctions regime was about to fall apart?

I doubt that P5+1 would have, though, one or the other might have to destabilize the situation. That is somewhat in an other guise, what Putin, Chirac and Schröder did in the negotiations with Saddam before Iraq 2. That does not mean that the the deal is good or bad. That depends on what good and bad are meant to mean in this case.
 
Something I'm trying to understand. Iran has been working on a nuclear program for years. They have been willing to withstand sanctions for their nuclear program for a very long time. Over the course of this time they have been able to get closer and closer to gaining the ability to create a nuclear weapon. There were estimates that they were only 2-3 months away from being able to enrich enough uranium when this deal was struck. So why all of a sudden would Iran want to strike a deal with us when they have gotten so close and have sacrificed so much for its nuclear program? Might be a stupid question... but none of this makes sense to me.


Great question.

Iran is in a weird position. They have the mechanism to produce a nuclear weapon but sane heads and those with any sense of self preservation never want to actually obtain one.

I have zero personal knowledge but speaking with former mates in the IDF, Israel is prepared to wipe out Iran's capability and the regime by whatever means necessary within hours of the order being given. The Iranians are fully aware of this and there is nothing they can do to prevent it. Israeli military will escalate to use whatever level of force is necessary if not 100% sure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon.

The Iranian regime is happy to have a way out without losing face by behing spanked by Israel. The Americans are happy not to have to support Israel once the order on an attack was was given. Israel, for the most part is also happy despite outward PR to the contrary.

I personally do not think the Iranian regime is so stupid as to 'just about' get a nuclear weapon but ...?
 
Great question.

Iran is in a weird position. They have the mechanism to produce a nuclear weapon but sane heads and those with any sense of self preservation never want to actually obtain one.

I have zero personal knowledge but speaking with former mates in the IDF, Israel is prepared to wipe out Iran's capability and the regime by whatever means necessary within hours of the order being given. The Iranians are fully aware of this and there is nothing they can do to prevent it. Israeli military will escalate to use whatever level of force is necessary if not 100% sure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon.

The Iranian regime is happy to have a way out without losing face by behing spanked by Israel. The Americans are happy not to have to support Israel once the order on an attack was was given. Israel, for the most part is also happy despite outward PR to the contrary.

I personally do not think the Iranian regime is so stupid as to 'just about' get a nuclear weapon but ...?

I agree with you that Israel will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from getting a bomb. However with that being said they would rather face a weaker Iran than a stronger one, which is why they probably oppose releasing sanctions.

There are saner heads in Iran but they don't control the military, the supreme leader does. If hardliners in Iran didn't want a nuke it seems like they would have shut this stuff down a long time ago and it certainly wouldn't require electing a more moderate leader. They are pissed about having to "abandon" its nuclear program even though a lot of the people in the country are happy about the deal. I could be wrong, but I dont think the hardline Iranians that really have the power in the country have changed their positions but they are very happy to strengthen their countries economy and therefore their military. Seems to me that no one should be happy (especially Israel) with a deal until the supreme leader of Iran has to step down and I don't think anything but a military attack will make that happen.
 
I agree with you that Israel will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from getting a bomb. However with that being said they would rather face a weaker Iran than a stronger one, which is why they probably oppose releasing sanctions.

There are saner heads in Iran but they don't control the military, the supreme leader does. If hardliners in Iran didn't want a nuke it seems like they would have shut this stuff down a long time ago and it certainly wouldn't require electing a more moderate leader. They are pissed about having to "abandon" its nuclear program even though a lot of the people in the country are happy about the deal. I could be wrong, but I dont think the hardline Iranians that really have the power in the country have changed their positions but they are very happy to strengthen their countries economy and therefore their military. Seems to me that no one should be happy (especially Israel) with a deal until the supreme leader of Iran has to step down and I don't think anything but a military attack will make that happen.

Israel will not tolerate a Nuclear Iran...period. ( nor will the USA). It's possible for the Americans to eventually change that position but not Israel. The Israelis aren't all that keen on a regime change in Iran...just as they were happy with keeping Assad in Syria, Hussein in Iraq, Kadafi, etc. It's much easier to garner support against an obvious 'bad guy' than a squishy leader. As long as the Iranian regime is in control then it is easier for Israel to concentrate just on the regime. They don't want another Iraq or Syria. Who do you threaten to wipe out if they sanction violence against Israel? Assad, Hussein, the Ayatollahs know (knew) just how far to go without actually ever doing anything that kills Israeli citizens. Assad would be dead in 24 hours if he personally ordered an attack against an Israel settlement. As for Iran? Tehran would cease to exist.

We see this in conflicts on the West Bank, Lebanon, etc. Who is giving orders? The civilian leaders are trying to rein in the militants because hey know that the authority is murky...who controls what? If Israel thought hat the Lebanese regime was responsible, they would be quickly destroyed.
 
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