Interesting commentary on why Russia isn't entirely lying that Eastern Ukraine is their real objective

[Craig234]

He lays out Russia's key objectives, that they're all in the East, and how the rest of Ukraine was more of a 'nice to also get' if he could. Some info you might not have heard like how Ukraine cut off water to Crimea after Russia seized it, and Russia badly wants that water needing them to seize Eastern Ukraine.

 

[DarkWizard12]

He lays out Russia's key objectives, that they're all in the East, and how the rest of Ukraine was more of a 'nice to also get' if he could. Some info you might not have heard like how Ukraine cut off water to Crimea after Russia seized it, and Russia badly wants that water needing them to seize Eastern Ukraine.

I think russia certainly wanted the rest of ukraine, and even expected as much. However, I also think 2 things can be true. I think eastern ukraine was their main objective, while the rest of the fighting, kyiv, etc, was a bonus + further pressure on the ukrainian government to surrender.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

It's going to be really awkward for Russia when they can't even secure the Donbass.

 

[Craig234]

It's going to be really awkward for Russia when they can't even secure the Donbass.

All the commentators (Russian insiders or Russian experts) I'm seeing say that Russia has a cultural thing where 'dictators who lose wars cannot stay in power'. This is being used to predict Putin won't back down and that his losing threatens his being in power.

 

[WillyPete]

He lays out Russia's key objectives, that they're all in the East, and how the rest of Ukraine was more of a 'nice to also get' if he could. Some info you might not have heard like how Ukraine cut off water to Crimea after Russia seized it, and Russia badly wants that water needing them to seize Eastern Ukraine.

That may all be true, but things are also clearly not going to plan and they are spinning.

Knocking out Kyiv was intended to throw Ukraine into chaos shock and awe style, so they could tidy up in the east.

The Russian are punching FAR under their weight class so far, and exposing themselves this way is the real damage they've done to themselves.

Apart from nukes there's nothing there of significant concern, and we shouldn't take anything they say about their capabilities as true.

At least the US is still getting value for our insane military spending (we assume.)

 

[Nomad4Ever]

This is being used to predict Putin won't back down and that his losing threatens his being in power.

I don't believe he will back down. I think they Russian army is going to be completely forced from Ukraine barring Crimea and I do think they will threaten the stability of Putin's regime.

 

[Mycroft]

He lays out Russia's key objectives, that they're all in the East, and how the rest of Ukraine was more of a 'nice to also get' if he could. Some info you might not have heard like how Ukraine cut off water to Crimea after Russia seized it, and Russia badly wants that water needing them to seize Eastern Ukraine.

You won't get any thanks from the warmongers here for presenting THAT point of view.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

You won't get any thanks from the warmongers here for presenting THAT point of view.

What point of view? He just brought up the water access to Crimea is obviously an objective. And like of course it is.

 

[WillyPete]

What point of view? He just brought up the water access to Crimea is obviously an objective. And like of course it is.

I think he's referring to the Ukraine's cutting off the water supply (in response to the invasion of Crimea) as justification to Russia for this invasion.

Clearly they should have just laid down and died back then, because look at this mess now.

 

[Craig234]

That may all be true, but things are also clearly not going to plan and they are spinning.

So, you didn't watch the video because it says that.

 

[Craig234]

I don't believe he will back down. I think they Russian army is going to be completely forced from Ukraine barring Crimea and I do think they will threaten the stability of Putin's regime.

We can hope.

 

[multivita-man]

That may all be true, but things are also clearly not going to plan and they are spinning.

Knocking out Kyiv was intended to throw Ukraine into chaos shock and awe style, so they could tidy up in the east.

The Russian are punching FAR under their weight class so far, and exposing themselves this way is the real damage they've done to themselves.

Apart from nukes there's nothing there of significant concern, and we shouldn't take anything they say about their capabilities as true.

At least the US is still getting value for our insane military spending (we assume.)

We have to be careful about our own biases and viewing this conflict with Western assumptions. During most of the Cold War, a betting man's money might have been put on the Soviets to win a conventional ground war against...pretty much any army on the planet. In fact we developed a tactical nuclear weapons program to defend NATO ground forces against a prolonged Russian ground assault. The ideas was that we had inferior numbers, so we'd use either massive conventional ordnance or tac nukes to break the Russian lines.

Now it's in reverse. Russia probably did massively miscalculate their strength relative to Ukraine's resistance, but they've known for some time that their army would get the piss knocked out of them against US/NATO forces in a 'normal' conflict. And while this is largely seen as an Ukraine/Russia conflict; it's really a global one, so the rules apply in this case. As we did during the Cold War, Russia has develop war plans that include cluster munitions, vacuum bombs, advanced missiles, and tac nukes to break holes in opposing armies - as a means of compensating for a disadvantage on the ground.

This is not to be confused with leveling cities for the purposes of terrorizing civilians - they've already done that and will continue to do so. What's increasingly on the table now is a situation in which Russia's leadership feels backed into a corner and tries to annihilate opposing armed forces with unconventional bombs, with the further aim of intimidating the NATO alliance in doing so.

 

[Cardinal]

I'm really getting a kick out of this guy. He's like the Josh Stone of military tactics and strategy.

 

[RIP U.S. Democracy]

I don't believe he will back down. I think they Russian army is going to be completely forced from Ukraine barring Crimea and I do think they will threaten the stability of Putin's regime.

After seeing how weak the Russian military is, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ukraine eventually try to force Russia out of Crimea. I hope they do it.

 

[multivita-man]

I don't believe he will back down. I think they Russian army is going to be completely forced from Ukraine barring Crimea and I do think they will threaten the stability of Putin's regime.

I think this can happen, but I am increasingly skeptical if our current posture is sufficient to do that. By that I mean, I think NATO needs to be a lot more aggressive with sanctions and with providing military assistance, and we even need to consider ways to get more directly militarily involved.

I admit that I'm changing my mind on this. At the start of the war, I was hopeful that the unprecedented sanctions would be the shock and awe that would get Putin's attention, but the more I read the writings of former Russian officials' (now exiled) writings and posts about Putin's mindset and the culture he both came from and created around him, the more I am persuaded that, as nutty or scary as it is to escalate with the threat of military intervention, that might counterintuitively be what ultimately forces Putin to back down.

Should this happen, I doubt it Putin would back down because of his having second thoughts and sacrificing himself for the good of the country - "the good of the country" doesn't exist in his mind. Putin *is* Russia as far as he's concerned. Should Putin be pushed back, it would probably be a collective realization among key oligarchs, elite Russian political figures, and key members within the FSB and military that this shit has to stop or there may be another Russian revolution on their hands. There could be defections and attention-whoring generals who suddenly find their conscience and their voice and challenge the status quo in full view of the public, potentially setting of a brutal fight for power among factions. I think that's the disaster scenario on their end.

But I'm not sure this happens with just sanctions because sanctions -- particularly these gradually escalating kind -- give Putin and his thugs time to adapt, time to work around their financial and logistical issues. The way to make Putin feel the heat is to speed up what's happening militarily.

 

[multivita-man]

After seeing how weak the Russian military is, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ukraine eventually try to force Russia out of Crimea. I hope they do it.

They wouldn't necessarily stay out though - that's the problem. I hope we (the US and NATO) realize that.

 

[HangLow]

I think this can happen, but I am increasingly skeptical if our current posture is sufficient to do that. By that I mean, I think NATO needs to be a lot more aggressive with sanctions and with providing military assistance, and we even need to consider ways to get more directly militarily involved.

I admit that I'm changing my mind on this. At the start of the war, I was hopeful that the unprecedented sanctions would be the shock and awe that would get Putin's attention, but the more I read the writings of former Russian officials' (now exiled) writings and posts about Putin's mindset and the culture he both came from and created around him, the more I am persuaded that, as nutty or scary as it is to escalate with the threat of military intervention, that might counterintuitively be what ultimately forces Putin to back down.

Should this happen, I doubt it Putin would back down because of his having second thoughts and sacrificing himself for the good of the country - "the good of the country" doesn't exist in his mind. Putin *is* Russia as far as he's concerned. Should Putin be pushed back, it would probably be a collective realization among key oligarchs, elite Russian political figures, and key members within the FSB and military that this shit has to stop or there may be another Russian revolution on their hands. There could be defections and attention-whoring generals who suddenly find their conscience and their voice and challenge the status quo in full view of the public, potentially setting of a brutal fight for power among factions. I think that's the disaster scenario on their end.

But I'm not sure this happens with just sanctions because sanctions -- particularly these gradually escalating kind -- give Putin and his thugs time to adapt, time to work around their financial and logistical issues. The way to make Putin feel the heat is to speed up what's happening militarily.

​

 

[Nomad4Ever]

They wouldn't necessarily stay out though - that's the problem. I hope we (the US and NATO) realize that.

I sincerely doubt the second siege of Kyiv will go any better lol.

 

[multivita-man]

I sincerely doubt the second siege of Kyiv will go any better lol.

My guess is that they've learned their lesson. They won't try to lay waste to Kyiv; rather, I suspect that they will dedicate everything they have to the continued occupation of the Donbas and Crimea. Putin can still save face and claim it was necessary to blast much of Ukraine to protect what he really wanted all along, which is a "buffer" between the Western Ukraine (the fake Ukraine) and the Ukraine that really matters, in the Donbas.

If he does this it might look like an admission of defeat but not necessarily. He can use the Donbas and Crimea as a staging ground for further incursions. Yes most of the Western leadership will insist on continued sanctions, but the brutal reality is we can't go much deeper without risking serious damage to our own economy - at least not right now. There's a really interesting game that's taking place right now and it involves a rapid decoupling of Russia from the 'global economy'. Russia will pivot toward Asia, both South and East Asia, and it will look to strengthen relations with the Middle East.

I think the mistake we're making is in giving Russia time to consider its options. Military pressure would on the one hand increase the odds of a spiralling escalation, but on the other hand, I think a more likely scenario is that it catches Putin off guard and forces his leadership into panic mode. And chances are, if you sample any random autocrat on the planet, most are not wiling to self-immolate, nor are their lackeys. But giving Putin time is giving him time to get around sanctions and further undermine our alliance.