Inflation Rearing its Ugly Head

[Logophile]

So other than your pure conjecture, you have zero evidence that US fiscal borrowing is creating worldwide inflation.

At least I make an effort, and I try to be thoughtful. Typical of the left, you have no interest in either. If you wanted support as in links, you should have had the decency to request them. That's called civility, as perhaps you're too lazy to investigate on your own. Regardless, your posts are not worthy of any more response than this. You have demonstrated a haughty myopia and lack of respectful discourse. Find another poster to flaunt your supercilious, discourteous bull. Thanks!!

 

[ALiberalModerate]

At least I make an effort, and I try to be thoughtful. Typical of the left, you have no interest in either. If you wanted support as in links, you should have had the decency to request them. That's called civility, as perhaps you're too lazy to investigate on your own. Regardless, your posts are not worthy of any more response than this. You have demonstrated a haughty myopia and lack of respectful discourse. Find another poster to flaunt your supercilious, discourteous bull. Thanks!!

I think what is driving worldwide inflation is higher demand in developed economies, reduced production capacity due to COVID, and logistics strains. It's a worldwide phenomena, U.S. fiscal policy has nothing to do with it.

 

[Kushinator]

At least I make an effort, and I try to be thoughtful.

Nobody views you as a victim. Imagine the level of unawareness it must take to consistently push a narrative that cannot be derived from knowledge of the topic and data / analysis. Not once have you tried to make amends for being wrong about inflation since you've started these threads months ago. Not once! Instead, you continue to double down with pure partisan bullshit. Regurgitating Faux News isn't the same thing as discussing inflation.

If you wanted support as in links, you should have had the decency to request them.

It's your responsibility to support YOUR claims/arguments! Why on earth would you respond as though you're being inconvenienced by requests for citation?

That's called civility, as perhaps you're too lazy to investigate on your own.

It's called hypocrisy on your part. Nobody forces you to make these posts and threads.

Regardless, your posts are not worthy of any more response than this. You have demonstrated a haughty myopia and lack of respectful discourse. Find another poster to flaunt your supercilious, discourteous bull. Thanks!!

The coward act is the most we can expect.

 

[Khayembii Communique]

Nobody views you as a victim. Imagine the level of unawareness it must take to consistently push a narrative that cannot be derived from knowledge of the topic and data / analysis. Not once have you tried to make amends for being wrong about inflation since you've started these threads months ago. Not once! Instead, you continue to double down with pure partisan bullshit. Regurgitating Faux News isn't the same thing as discussing inflation.

It's your responsibility to support YOUR claims/arguments! Why on earth would you respond as though you're being inconvenienced by requests for citation?

It's called hypocrisy on your part. Nobody forces you to make these posts and threads.

The coward act is the most we can expect.

This is the same poster that said in the beginning of 2020 that COVID isn't a big deal and it'll blow over and we'll have 100,000 deaths and it'll go away

 

[ElChupacabra]

Same with the U.K..

Biden really ****ed up with his disastrous Brexit policy.

China is having issues with generating power for its factories.
Biden had to take charge of Chinese energy policy, didn't he?
Thanks Biden.

 

[Kushinator]

This is the same poster that said in the beginning of 2020 that COVID isn't a big deal and it'll blow over and we'll have 100,000 deaths and it'll go away.

You're thinking of @Paradoxical . @Logophile was calling it the Chinese virus and Wuhan flu. @Mashmont said 10,400 deaths.

I have a DP predictions bookmark with nearly 100 entries, and most of them are from the banned or AWOL.

 

[Kushinator]

China is having issues with generating power for its factories.

That has much to do with the crackdown on crypto mining. Chinese subsidized electricity made the country a prime location for the majority of cryptocurrency mining operations, amongst other things being instant access to necessary hardware.

 

[eohrnberger]

What is the fundamental factor that determines price in America? Supply and demand.

Supply is messed up. Factories shut or producing less, transportation chains jumbled.

Demand is very high. People have restrained purchases for over a year, and during that year, relief checks have been sent to huge amounts to consumers.

Is there inflation now? Absolutely.
Is much of it transitory? I believe so.

The US supply chain has had problems for some number of years now, and the pandemic pushed it past the tipping point.

Also, of all the world's shipping ports, the US' are pretty low in efficiency, the West coast ports particularly.

LOS ANGELES, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Southern California's Los Angeles and Long Beach ports handle the most ocean cargo of any ports in the United States, but are some of the least efficient in the world, according to a ranking by the World Bank and IHS Markit.

In a review of 351 container ports around the globe, Los Angeles was ranked 328, behind Tanzania's Dar es Salaam and Alaska's Dutch Harbor. The adjacent port of Long Beach came in even lower, at 333, behind Turkey's Nemrut Bay and Kenya's Mombasa, the groups said in their inaugural Container Port Performance Index published in May.


The total number of ships waiting to unload outside the two adjacent ports hit a new all-time record of 100 on Monday. Americans' purchases of imported goods have jumped to levels the U.S. supply chain infrastructure can't handle, causing delivery delays and snarls.

Top port honors went to Japan's Yokohama and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah on the ranking. Finishing out the top five were Chiwan, part of Shenzhen's port in Guangdong Province; South China's Guangzhou port; and Taiwan's Kaoshiung port.

California ports, key to U.S. supply chain, among world's least efficient, ranking shows

Southern California's Los Angeles and Long Beach ports handle the most ocean cargo of any ports in the United States, but are some of the least efficient in the world, according to a ranking by the World Bank and IHS Markit.

www.reuters.com

It'd be reasonable to suspect that this has something to do with this inefficiency problem.

ILWU Los Angeles Protest Against Expansion of Automated Terminals Reinforces Strength of ILA Master Contract That Protects Members Against Automation For Six Years – ILA Union

ilaunion.org

I believe that ILWU is a public sector union and the city of Los Angeles is with whom the union has a contract.

Do you suppose that the first bi-partisan bill has automation funding for this port?

 

[KingLeo]

Inflation is a feature of economic recovery. In the U.S. right now, it’s being driven by a few overlapping factors resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic: low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, several rounds of direct government stimulus to both consumers and businesses, and pent-up consumer demand that is being unleashed as the U.S. reopens.
With that in mind, many economists and other financial experts say that the current rate of inflation is nothing to worry about — it’s temporary and expected, even if it is unclear when it will eventually fade.

 

[mrjurrs]

The US supply chain has had problems for some number of years now, and the pandemic pushed it past the tipping point.

Also, of all the world's shipping ports, the US' are pretty low in efficiency, the West coast ports particularly.

​

LOS ANGELES, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Southern California's Los Angeles and Long Beach ports handle the most ocean cargo of any ports in the United States, but are some of the least efficient in the world, according to a ranking by the World Bank and IHS Markit.​

​

In a review of 351 container ports around the globe, Los Angeles was ranked 328, behind Tanzania's Dar es Salaam and Alaska's Dutch Harbor. The adjacent port of Long Beach came in even lower, at 333, behind Turkey's Nemrut Bay and Kenya's Mombasa, the groups said in their inaugural Container Port Performance Index published in May.​

​

​

The total number of ships waiting to unload outside the two adjacent ports hit a new all-time record of 100 on Monday. Americans' purchases of imported goods have jumped to levels the U.S. supply chain infrastructure can't handle, causing delivery delays and snarls.​

​

Top port honors went to Japan's Yokohama and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah on the ranking. Finishing out the top five were Chiwan, part of Shenzhen's port in Guangdong Province; South China's Guangzhou port; and Taiwan's Kaoshiung port.​

California ports, key to U.S. supply chain, among world's least efficient, ranking shows

Southern California's Los Angeles and Long Beach ports handle the most ocean cargo of any ports in the United States, but are some of the least efficient in the world, according to a ranking by the World Bank and IHS Markit.

www.reuters.com

​

It'd be reasonable to suspect that this has something to do with this inefficiency problem.

ILWU Los Angeles Protest Against Expansion of Automated Terminals Reinforces Strength of ILA Master Contract That Protects Members Against Automation For Six Years – ILA Union

ilaunion.org

I believe that ILWU is a public sector union and the city of Los Angeles is with whom the union has a contract.

Do you suppose that the first bi-partisan bill has automation funding for this port?

I saw somewhere that prior to the pandemic the US was already short something like 20,000 long-haul truckers. The pandemic exacerbated all of these issues. I'm kind of glad though, by exposing them now when everything is messed up, hopefully we can be ready when the world starts returning to a semblance of normal.

If the bill doesn't include funding it should, although replacement of workers by automation is a subject that we will need to deal with in the near future as well.

 

[eohrnberger]

I saw somewhere that prior to the pandemic the US was already short something like 20,000 long-haul truckers.

True. Being a long haul trucker isn't an easy life, at least from what I've heard. Many a night away from home and family.
Most interestingly, and I've heard this only second hand (so that it for what it's worth, I guess), women seem to be taking to the truck driving role (snide comments of women drivers will not be accepted here).

Driving forces: Women taking on more lucrative trucker jobs​

https://www.trucker.com › drivers › article › driving-fo...​

Mar 11, 2019 — With women underrepresented among professional truck drivers and an industry long facing a shortage, one company finds more females applying ...​

Women in Trucking: How They're Disrupting the Industry​

https://www.indeed.com › lead › women-in-trucking​

Aug 15, 2019 — Some of the challenges for female truck drivers go deeper than bias. Safety concerns are common, encompassing everything from poor vehicle ...​

​

The pandemic exacerbated all of these issues. I'm kind of glad though, by exposing them now when everything is messed up, hopefully we can be ready when the world starts returning to a semblance of normal.

I think that 'normal' will arrive a heck of a lot faster than unsnarling the US supply chain issues.

If the bill doesn't include funding it should, although replacement of workers by automation is a subject that we will need to deal with in the near future as well.

Agreed. But it should be specific for the deployment of shipping port automation, specific to cargo container flow optimization. Next step, is getting the union to support that, given that they've already made banning that as part of their collective bargaining agreement, that's going to be really tough.

Maybe have to build new ports to be able to get a more reasonable union contract? Let the other ones cycle down and have their shipping volume dwindle? I dunno. How does one effectively deal with recalcitrant public sector unions? Prostration to their demands doesn't sound like it'd be it.

 

[ElChupacabra]

True. Being a long haul trucker isn't an easy life, at least from what I've heard. Many a night away from home and family.
Most interestingly, and I've heard this only second hand (so that it for what it's worth, I guess), women seem to be taking to the truck driving role (snide comments of women drivers will not be accepted here).

Driving forces: Women taking on more lucrative trucker jobs​

https://www.trucker.com › drivers › article › driving-fo...​

Mar 11, 2019 — With women underrepresented among professional truck drivers and an industry long facing a shortage, one company finds more females applying ...​

Women in Trucking: How They're Disrupting the Industry​

https://www.indeed.com › lead › women-in-trucking​

Aug 15, 2019 — Some of the challenges for female truck drivers go deeper than bias. Safety concerns are common, encompassing everything from poor vehicle ...​

​

<snip>

I heard about this as well, and it's good to see that some of these jobs are being filled by women who can have a go at this kind of work. For some of the women I read about, it presented a better financial opportunity than some of the service jobs they used to be in. The competitive market for this type of work has made it even more appealing, but the long times away from home don't make it viable for women with young children.

We are still a way off before automation can fill in this gap, so in the meantime people will still need to find this kind of work appealing enough to endure the risks which come with it.

 

[eohrnberger]

I heard about this as well, and it's good to see that some of these jobs are being filled by women who can have a go at this kind of work. For some of the women I read about, it presented a better financial opportunity than some of the service jobs they used to be in. The competitive market for this type of work has made it even more appealing, but the long times away from home don't make it viable for women with young children.

Agreed. But to obtain that trucking license has a lead time. Not sure how much it is, and I don't believe that 6 or 8 weeks commercials that you used to see on late night TV.

We are still a way off before automation can fill in this gap, so in the meantime people will still need to find this kind of work appealing enough to endure the risks which come with it.

The automation already exists.

Rotterdam is building the most automated port in the world​

https://www.wired.co.uk › Business › Engineering​

Oct 7, 2019 — Rotterdam is betting big on self-driving ships, smart containers and autonomous cranes. Everyone's happy, apart from dockers.​

​

Container Terminal Altenwerder - Wikipedia​

https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Container_Terminal_A...​

The HHLA Container Terminal Altenwerder (CTA) in Hamburg, Germany currently is one of the most modern container terminals in the ... In the port, the fully automatic handling​

​

From my view it'd be a matter of buying it and implementing it and making it work in a clearly hostile environment, much the same as the UAW's hostility to the automation that came to their plants decades ago.

 

[mrjurrs]

True. Being a long haul trucker isn't an easy life, at least from what I've heard. Many a night away from home and family.
Most interestingly, and I've heard this only second hand (so that it for what it's worth, I guess), women seem to be taking to the truck driving role (snide comments of women drivers will not be accepted here).

Driving forces: Women taking on more lucrative trucker jobs​

https://www.trucker.com › drivers › article › driving-fo...​

Mar 11, 2019 — With women underrepresented among professional truck drivers and an industry long facing a shortage, one company finds more females applying ...​

Women in Trucking: How They're Disrupting the Industry​

https://www.indeed.com › lead › women-in-trucking​

Aug 15, 2019 — Some of the challenges for female truck drivers go deeper than bias. Safety concerns are common, encompassing everything from poor vehicle ...​

​

I think that 'normal' will arrive a heck of a lot faster than unsnarling the US supply chain issues.

Agreed. But it should be specific for the deployment of shipping port automation, specific to cargo container flow optimization. Next step, is getting the union to support that, given that they've already made banning that as part of their collective bargaining agreement, that's going to be really tough.

Maybe have to build new ports to be able to get a more reasonable union contract? Let the other ones cycle down and have their shipping volume dwindle? I dunno. How does one effectively deal with recalcitrant public sector unions? Prostration to their demands doesn't sound like it'd be it.

Women and also...automated trucks. I think you deal with the union the way companies always deal with unions, negotiate.

 

[ElChupacabra]

Agreed. But to obtain that trucking license has a lead time. Not sure how much it is, and I don't believe that 6 or 8 weeks commercials that you used to see on late night TV.

The automation already exists.

Rotterdam is building the most automated port in the world​

https://www.wired.co.uk › Business › Engineering​

Oct 7, 2019 — Rotterdam is betting big on self-driving ships, smart containers and autonomous cranes. Everyone's happy, apart from dockers.​

​

Container Terminal Altenwerder - Wikipedia​

https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Container_Terminal_A...​

The HHLA Container Terminal Altenwerder (CTA) in Hamburg, Germany currently is one of the most modern container terminals in the ... In the port, the fully automatic handling​

​

From my view it'd be a matter of buying it and implementing it and making it work in a clearly hostile environment, much the same as the UAW's hostility to the automation that came to their plants decades ago.

Automation does exist, but I was referring specifically to the automation of trucking, and automation is not there yet to replace human drivers en masse.

 

[eohrnberger]

Automation does exist, but I was referring specifically to the automation of trucking, and automation is not there yet to replace human drivers en masse.

Correct. There is not. I was thinking you were including container port automation, but you weren't. All good here.

 

[eohrnberger]

Automation does exist, but I was referring specifically to the automation of trucking, and automation is not there yet to replace human drivers en masse.

In the UAW automation example that'd be correct. The longshoreman's union is engaged with the local government, so that'd be a public sector union then, so not so much. The union pretty much dictates to the local government what they want, and then go and elect to city government whom will give it to them.

 

[Visbek]

At least I make an effort, and I try to be thoughtful.

Making unsupported assertions and ad hominem attacks is neither an effort, nor thoughtful.

This is not about "links," it is about your inability to provide an actual explanation for how something like federal deficit spending would cause inflation in specific products all over the world. You then have to explain why this didn't cause inflation in the decades preceding the pandemic; or why it actually causes deflation, no inflation, in Japan -- which indulges in even more deficit spending than the US.

In fact, Japan has done all sorts of things that you proclaim cause inflation, but it typically hovers around 0%. They have huge deficits and debts; they have an expansionist monetary policy; they did multiple rounds of quantitative easing; they've experimented with negative interest rates; they import most of their energy. How do you explain that?

 

[Kushinator]

What i wouldn't give for 5% inflation for the next 4 years!

 

[highroller]

Funny that worldwide issues are cause by one man in the Oval Office. The software of the global economy is in dire need to be rewritten.

 

[Logophile]

Making unsupported assertions and ad hominem attacks is neither an effort, nor thoughtful.

This is not about "links," it is about your inability to provide an actual explanation for how something like federal deficit spending would cause inflation in specific products all over the world. You then have to explain why this didn't cause inflation in the decades preceding the pandemic; or why it actually causes deflation, no inflation, in Japan -- which indulges in even more deficit spending than the US.

In fact, Japan has done all sorts of things that you proclaim cause inflation, but it typically hovers around 0%. They have huge deficits and debts; they have an expansionist monetary policy; they did multiple rounds of quantitative easing; they've experimented with negative interest rates; they import most of their energy. How do you explain that?

Look at who holds Japan's debt load. You want a Japanese economy?? Thanks!!

 

[Kushinator]

Look at who holds Japan's debt load. You want a Japanese economy?? Thanks!!

A meaningless reply. Why bother?

 

[MTAtech]

Yeah my parents were saying that this is just like Jimmy Carter’s inflation. I told them that they were obviously weak people. This is nothing.

Jimmy Carter’s inflation was created by the oil crisis. Back then, more items were directly dependent upon oil and vehicles were far less energy efficient.

The big problem Carter had was the Fed response, which was to raise interest rates dramatically to hold down inflation, which worked but created a recession and massive unemployment.

 

[bave]

Jimmy Carter’s inflation was created by the oil crisis. Back then, more items were directly dependent upon oil and vehicles were far less energy efficient.

The big problem Carter had was the Fed response, which was to raise interest rates dramatically to hold down inflation, which worked but created a recession and massive unemployment.

Sure, this is mostly accurate, but you are discounting the current situation as well. If the FRB is forced to raise rates and/or the market starts moving USTs then you could very easily see a rapid decline in real estate values far worse than we saw in 2008. Does anyone actually believe real estate prices in 3-4 years will be even close to current prices?

 

[Logophile]

Sure, this is mostly accurate, but you are discounting the current situation as well. If the FRB is forced to raise rates and/or the market starts moving USTs then you could very easily see a rapid decline in real estate values far worse than we saw in 2008. Does anyone actually believe real estate prices in 3-4 years will be even close to current prices?

I agree with you. But I also think that the price of fuel is going to be in play. The Biden Administration is as usual, applying itself to making a mess. Spending trillions we don't have and emptying the oil reserves doesn't sound smart to me. And with the current declared inflation rate of 5.4 percent, I can't even imagine what it's going to be if the Fed keeps dragging its feet on an interest rate hike. Thanks!!