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Inflation 7%

bave

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Real Earnings Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until USDL-22-0019
8:30 a.m. (ET), Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Technical Information: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces
Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov

REAL EARNINGS – DECEMBER 2021

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from November to December,
seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an
increase of 0.6 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.5 percent in the
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings increased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average
hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.

Real average hourly earnings decreased 2.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, from December 2020 to
December 2021. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average
workweek resulted in a 2.3-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.
 

jmotivator

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There was a period of deflation / disinflation early on in the pandemic. Do you really want to deny this fact?

fredgraph.png

The red line depicts 2% CPI growth. How can the CPI (blue line) fall beneath the red line if what i have stated is untrue?

Once again, you attempt to post in a deceptive manner, by using annual data to hide from the deflationary / disinflationary period during the early stages of the pandemic, while simultaneously omitting the veracity of my statement (disinflation).

Notice how you (once again) didn't post any data pertaining to wages and salary of the lower income demographic. Typical....

Let's look at that graph..

1642177159599.png


The blue area shows the period where the CPI average was below the targeted 2% pace, the red line is the start of 2021, and the blue line marks the moment that CPI recovered all of the slow down and hit the expected 2% effective inflation.

The recovery of the CPI 2% pace was predominantly in 2020, and ended in Feb-Mar of 2021. Everything after that point is not recovery, it's just inflation.
 

Kushinator

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Let's look at that graph.
We know there has been inflation. If you're not picking cherries, attacking strawmen, clutching pearls... you'll beat a dead horse. All in an effort to push a partisan narrative.

But no reference to low income real wages. For your next response, maybe some poutrage about how inflation is making it tough for children...or the homeless. Or puppies. Maybe homeless children with puppies.

We know you're not above attempting to weaponize people's hardships in your quest to pwn libs.

So have at it.
 

jmotivator

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We know there has been inflation. If you're not picking cherries, attacking strawmen, clutching pearls... you'll beat a dead horse. All in an effort to push a partisan narrative.

But no reference to low income real wages. For your next response, maybe some poutrage about how inflation is making it tough for children...or the homeless. Or puppies. Maybe homeless children with puppies.

We know you're not above attempting to weaponize people's hardships in your quest to pwn libs.

So have at it.

You attempted to argue that the highest inflation in 40 years was caused by the recovery from the 2020 COVID recession and then you have spent numerous posts proving your own argument is full of shit.
 

Kushinator

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You attempted to argue that the highest inflation in 40 years was caused by the recovery from the 2020 COVID recession
I have not. You are simply trying to define my positions as a means to attack them (weak sauce). The pandemic has surely changed consumer preference, has led to a supply chain disruption, fiscal and monetary stimulus, etc... but that hasn't been part of our discussion.

Will there be any posts showing the data for low income wage earners on an inflation adjusted basis? At least you had the sense to not try to hide behind homeless children with puppies.
and then you have spent numerous posts proving your own argument is full of shit.
Every exchange ends kind of like this, where you claim victory by insisting my responses actually support your positions. It's really weird.
 

jmotivator

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I have not. You are simply trying to define my positions as a means to attack them (weak sauce). The pandemic has surely changed consumer preference, has led to a supply chain disruption, fiscal and monetary stimulus, etc... but that hasn't been part of our discussion.

Will there be any posts showing the data for low income wage earners on an inflation adjusted basis? At least you had the sense to not try to hide behind homeless children with puppies.

Every exchange ends kind of like this, where you claim victory by insisting my responses actually support your positions. It's really weird.

You ran into this argument arguing that the inflation we are seeing is the recovery from the 2020 recession and then went on to prove your own argument is bullshit. There is really no other way to describe what you've done here.
 

Ishm

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People not paying for things is a big problem, about 3 trillion a year. Were up to 30 trillion. Not rhetoric. Fact. Healthcare alone is responsible for the entire deficit.
SS and Medicaid are things people paid for, not free. I would agree if you said they have been terribly mismanaged, but they are in effect a commercial agreement between the govt and the contributors. Medicaid is the result of creating such an overall inefficient healthcare system that it costs twice the average of it's peers. Couple that with policies that have created the developed western worlds worst income inequality and you get too many people that can't afford healthcare.

Healthcare is not "responsible for the entire deficit", but I do agree that it is a major contributor. Not because it is 'free' to many, but because it cost the country $4T per year instead of the equivalent $2T to $3T that other countries achieve similar, or better, health outcomes with. Fix the massively excessive healthcare costs and the country could be running surplusses instead of deficits.

The SS and Medicare funds have been used as cheap money by the govt for years at the expense of building the real returns that could have left the funds with more money than they could ever spend. Other countries (3 I know about offhand are Canada, Norway, and New Zealand but there will be many more) have run commercially invested SS funds for decades. They all average close to 10% per annum returns vs the US funds where returns barely match inflation. It's been obvious for years that the 'ponzi scheme' design of the US funds was going to fail, but the various govts just continue to push the highly political/emotional problem out onto the next administration so they don't have to deal with it. Criminal really, but it keeps the voters mostly blissfully unaware. Just a little more borrowing and it can be the next guys problem.
 

jonny5

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SS and Medicaid are things people paid for, not free. I would agree if you said they have been terribly mismanaged, but they are in effect a commercial agreement between the govt and the contributors. Medicaid is the result of creating such an overall inefficient healthcare system that it costs twice the average of it's peers. Couple that with policies that have created the developed western worlds worst income inequality and you get too many people that can't afford healthcare.

Healthcare is not "responsible for the entire deficit", but I do agree that it is a major contributor. Not because it is 'free' to many, but because it cost the country $4T per year instead of the equivalent $2T to $3T that other countries achieve similar, or better, health outcomes with. Fix the massively excessive healthcare costs and the country could be running surplusses instead of deficits.

The SS and Medicare funds have been used as cheap money by the govt for years at the expense of building the real returns that could have left the funds with more money than they could ever spend. Other countries (3 I know about offhand are Canada, Norway, and New Zealand but there will be many more) have run commercially invested SS funds for decades. They all average close to 10% per annum returns vs the US funds where returns barely match inflation. It's been obvious for years that the 'ponzi scheme' design of the US funds was going to fail, but the various govts just continue to push the highly political/emotional problem out onto the next administration so they don't have to deal with it. Criminal really, but it keeps the voters mostly blissfully unaware. Just a little more borrowing and it can be the next guys problem.

We spend 1.5 trillion NET on healthcare. The deficit is about 1.5. trillion. The only thing paid for is Medicare Part A. Everything else is "free" to many (medicare B, D, medicaid, schip, etc). And that healthcare deficit becomes never ending debt which we have to pay interest on.

So yes, healthcare is responsible for the entire deficit. Now, if you want to suggest actually paying for it with a tax on EVERYONE, then we could do that. Raise the medicare payroll tax from 2.9% to 15%. Ideally let ME opt out, but I doubt it.

CBO and JCT project that federal subsidies, taxes, and penalties associated with health insurance coverage for people under age 65 will result in a net subsidy from the federal government of $920 billion in 2021 and $1.4 trillion in 2030.

1642192295667.png
 

Kushinator

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You ran into this argument arguing that the inflation we are seeing is the recovery from the 2020 recession and then went on to prove your own argument is bullshit. There is really no other way to describe what you've done here.
I quoted you to point out the fact that you are cherry picking. You then went on do it again in an attempt score cheap points by ignoring the disinflationary part of my statement, and cite annual CPI percentage change to refute the deflationary period early on in the pandemic. It's not only desperate... at this point your posts are rather pathetic.

Inflation is high, output is high, asset valuations have soared, and wages have more than kept up with inflation when we take a longer term view of the situation.

Once again, you didn't post anything to substantiate your earlier claim regarding wage gains for lower income earners... why is that?
 

jmotivator

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I quoted you to point out the fact that you are cherry picking. You then went on do it again in an attempt score cheap points by ignoring the disinflationary part of my statement, and cite annual CPI percentage change to refute the deflationary period early on in the pandemic. It's not only desperate... at this point your posts are rather pathetic.

You keep accusing me of "cherry picking" while presenting charts that prove my point.

Inflation is high, output is high, asset valuations have soared,

LOL. Inflation isn't so bad, we're in a real estate bubble! :rolleyes:

Also, yeah, prices are high when inflation is high. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

and wages have more than kept up with inflation when we take a longer term view of the situation.

Except they haven't, which is the whole point you can't accept. Inflation has outpaced wage gains.

Once again, you didn't post anything to substantiate your earlier claim regarding wage gains for lower income earners... why is that?

I posted everything I needed to and your FRED charts did the rest.
 

yankintx

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Edit, sorry I meant 7%, 12% was a specific area.

White House briefing on this right now, says economy is awesome, we need to spend more, especially by giving people more free money through BBB.

Does anyone think that would increase or decrease inflation? I say increase.
What makes you think BBB will increase inflation, specifics please?
 

GummyVitamins

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You're cherry picking and nothing else.

Hiding behind impoverished people isn't a valid debate strategy. I have to explain the basics to you.

You're such a champion for low wage workers🥱

Nonsense. You're trying to cherry pick in a desperate attempt to own libs.

It is a cherry pick to attack a strawman and nothing else

Only if you cherry pick the time frames. If we take a longer approach (pre-pandemic levels) it's clearly not the case. Wages are up 1.6%.

By all means, do your own work. It's not my responsibility to research your positions. If you believe this is the case, why are you not providing evidence?

I haven't made any reference to low wage workers. You have... and you've also been unable to support your argument. The data is out there. Stop trying to use the poor as a shield for your partisanship. You don't give a ****... this is just a desperate act.
This is where ya should have quit when you were behind. You talk a lot about people being partisan in this thread, but it's pretty obvious that your posts are by far the most partisan. I can't tell if this is an attempt at an honest debate (in which case you've pulled the wool over your own eyes) or you're just being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative because you've backed yourself into a corner. In any event, it's a really bad look.
 

Kushinator

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You keep accusing me of "cherry picking" while presenting charts that prove my point.
So far, here are responses to my posts:

You are trying to argue that the spike in wages in 2020 means everything is great, ignoring that the "gains" (which really weren't) in 2020 have been falling ever since.
You have this bizarre position that we should ignore 40+% increases in essential costs because not all essentials increased that much, and it makes you look detached and clueless.
You are trying to hide the troubles of inflation on a large portion of the population by hiding behind average income charts.... or you can't tell the difference.
You keep arguing average wages and then pretend you are arguing low income wages. But keep going with your delusions.
You ran into this argument arguing that the inflation we are seeing is the recovery from the 2020 recession and then went on to prove your own argument is bullshit. There is really no other way to describe what you've done here.
You attempted to argue that the highest inflation in 40 years was caused by the recovery from the 2020 COVID recession and then you have spent numerous posts proving your own argument is full of shit.
These responses are schizophrenic. Notice how throughout this exchange, you make claims about my arguments and formulate a response to yourself. There hasn't been a single attempt to address my actual arguments other than to lie (which is on par with the cherry-pick / strawman) or to pretend you care about a specific demographic. It's all an act.

For example, when i pointed out your cherry-pick, you claim i am doing the same thing. But what does this term mean?

A cherry-pick in regards to this situation is when someone tries to focus on a short term (yes, a year can be considered short term) change in the data while ignoring the longer term trend. In this case, you chose to 2021 CPI growth. Had this been just another year, a focus on this data wouldn't have been fallacious. However, we are going into year three of a global pandemic! Claiming inflation has eaten up wages ignores a great deal of other important information, e.g. that wages shot up heavily in the beginning of the pandemic and price indices fell / stagnated for all of 2020. Such dishonest behavior is typical in discussions pertaining to things like global warming, where a sudden change in temperature is exploited as something significant while ignoring the overall trend:

not-cooling.png


It's dishonest. It is very petty... and it's a fallacy.

To add insult to injury, you initially try to hide behind lower income individuals. But when i call you out for failing to provide any data to substantiate your argument (if it should even be labeled as such), you completely abandon the narrative and move on to attacking additional strawmen. Desperate doesn't even begin to describe your behavior here.

In the end, you resort to your typical back-against-the-wall bullshit in which you insist my posts are actually suppurative of whatever delusional web you've chosen to weave.

At the end of the day, the U.S. economy is booming and this is a threat to your cult, so you'll try to exploit whatever shorter term data is available. I will end this exchange by noting you are very careful not to make any predictions pertaining to future economic result. It's all about distortion, deceptiveness, ignorance, and fear mongering... so much, that you'll abandon whatever narrative you're on mid-ship and just deny deny deny.

If you cannot provide any citation to lower income real wages in any follow up posts in this thread, then we don't have anything more to discuss. Have the last word....
 

MrWonka

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Edit, sorry I meant 7%, 12% was a specific area.

White House briefing on this right now, says economy is awesome, we need to spend more, especially by giving people more free money through BBB.

Does anyone think that would increase or decrease inflation? I say increase.
Inflation is high because we have way more work than we currently have workers to do. While it sucks in the short term it is an indication that the Economy is incredibly strong and as COVID fades it's going to get even stronger. The only thing standing in the way of our Economy roaring back amazingly is ****ing morons who won't get vaccinated and Republican Governors who are actively trying to kill their own citizens.
 

Kushinator

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That's a compliment based on the quality of the opinions you've expressed in this thread. How embarrassing.
Opinions???

Imagine someone trying to make the case about inflation eating up lower income earners only to totally refuse to post data regarding lower income wage growth.

Perhaps you can pick up this abandoned narrative?
 
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