Independents Favor Democrats Over Republicans (1 Viewer)

[26 X World Champs]

With 15 days to go a very revealing poll adds fuel to fire that the GOP are in the "last throes of their insurgency" :rofl

Independents Favor Democrats Over Republicans

Poll Finds Votes Motivated by War Pessimism, Dissatisfation With GOP

By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, October 23, 2006; 5:46 PM

Two weeks before midterm elections, Republicans are losing the battle for independent voters, who now strongly favor Democrats on the major issues facing the country and overwhelmingly prefer to see them take over the House in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. (snip)

The independent voters surveyed said they plan to support Democratic candidates over Republicans by roughly 2-to-1 (59 percent to 31 percent), the largest margin in any Post-ABC News poll this year. Forty-five percent said it would be good if Democrats recapture the House majority while just 10 percent said it would not be.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/23/AR2006102300766.html

 

[KidRocks]

With 15 days to go a very revealing poll adds fuel to fire that the GOP are in the "last throes of their insurgency" :rofl



Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/23/AR2006102300766.html

So what else is new?

It seems that everybody and their mama are favoring the Democrats at the moment.

 

[KidRocks]

With 15 days to go a very revealing poll adds fuel to fire that the GOP are in the "last throes of their insurgency" :rofl



Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/23/AR2006102300766.html

...that the GOP are in the "last throes of their insurgency"

Missed that, that's good man! I love it!

 

[26 X World Champs]

So what else is new?

It seems that everybody and their mama are favoring the Democrats at the moment.

Navy Pride and Right @ NYU aren't.....

 

[KidRocks]

Navy Pride and Right @ NYU aren't.....

Bet you their mama's are greatly dissappointed tho!

 

[RightinNYC]

Again, generic Dem v. Rep polls are almost useless in predicting Senatorial races and even more useless in predicting Congressional races. People vote for the person, not the party.

Do I need to remind you of what the generic Dem v. Rep polls were showing right before the 1994 elections again?

 

[ALiberalModerate]

Again, generic Dem v. Rep polls are almost useless in predicting Senatorial races and even more useless in predicting Congressional races. People vote for the person, not the party.

Do I need to remind you of what the generic Dem v. Rep polls were showing right before the 1994 elections again?

If I am not mistaken, they were showing that voters wanted a change.

That said I get your point. This is what I think will probably happen. The Republicans will loose the House (probably for 40 to 50 years again ;-)). They have a decent chance of barely holding the Senate, but they will loose the majority of the Governors offices, and will once again probably revert to minority party status. It seems that the bumper sticker / wedge issue / cultural war politics that have been prevalent for about the last 12 years or so, have pretty much played out. Astoundingly, people seem to be actually caring about the issues that actually affect their lives for a change. This is evidenced by the fact that anymore, the term "Religious Right" or "Social Conservative" is as scary to most people as the term "Socialist".

For example, for the past 6 years I have lived in the Kansas City area. A year and a half ago, we moved to a suburb on the Kansas side. One would be hard pressed to find a redder state than Kansas. The last time Kansas voted Democrat in a presidential election was during the Great Depression.

However, right now we have a Democratic Governor, who has about a 20 point lead in the polls over her social conservative Republican Opponent. The man running as a Democrat for Lieutenant Governor was the Chairman of the State Republican Party. He left the party earlier this year because it had moved to far to the extreme right. Our very Conservative Republican Attorney General Phil Kline is an embarrassment, and is set to be defeated by a Democrat, who up until this year was a lifelong Republican. The congressional District that I live in is represented by a centrist Democrat, Congressman Dennis Moore who will win reelection even in this Republican District by a landslide.

The problem Republicans have in Kansas right now is that while Farmers are concerned about water, suburbanites about school funding, and everyone about health care, our conservative Republican Legislators have spent the last few years debating teaching Intelligent Design in schools and ways to integrate Church and State.

If the Red State of Kansas is sick of crap like that, I can't imagine how sick of it the people in the average "swing state” are.

 

[26 X World Champs]

Again, generic Dem v. Rep polls are almost useless in predicting Senatorial races and even more useless in predicting Congressional races. People vote for the person, not the party.

Do I need to remind you of what the generic Dem v. Rep polls were showing right before the 1994 elections again?

Sure do post polls from the last two weeks of 1994...I recall their stating that there was an immense amount of unhappiness with Congress and the Dems.

One wild card that Republicans are disregarding is the effect of the Iraq War on the election. Nothing in the past 34 years will affect voters like Iraq will and that motivator is something you cannot compare to 1994 or any year since the GOP took over....

Cheney himself said it all when talking about the expected results of this election:

"We are in the final throes of this GOP Insurgency." :lol:

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2006/10/24/GR2006102400071.html

 

[FallingPianos]

I can't wait for the democrats to be elected. getting sick of them would be such a relief.

 

[RightinNYC]

In 1994, the NYT conducted a nearly identical poll gauging the impression of the general public. The poll was conducted from September 8-11, less that two months before the election. The poll results?

IF THE 1994 ELECTION FOR U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES WERE BEING HELD TODAY, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IN YOUR DISTRICT?

9/8-11/94

Republican - 37
Democrat - 39

:shock:

So. A generic poll just 2 months before the election appeared to indicate that the Democrats had the advantage in the midterm elections. The result?

The GOP picked up 54 seats.

So, despite the fact that most of the reliable generic polls show the Reps behind the dems by a margin of 8 - 12 points, forgive me if I'm not quivering in my boots.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, generic D v. R polls mean absolutely nothing in Congressional elections.

 

[ALiberalModerate]

In 1994, the NYT conducted a nearly identical poll gauging the impression of the general public. The poll was conducted from September 8-11, less that two months before the election. The poll results?




:shock:

So. A generic poll just 2 months before the election appeared to indicate that the Democrats had the advantage in the midterm elections. The result?

The GOP picked up 54 seats.

So, despite the fact that most of the reliable generic polls show the Reps behind the dems by a margin of 8 - 12 points, forgive me if I'm not quivering in my boots.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, generic D v. R polls mean absolutely nothing in Congressional elections.

While I agree that Generic Polls mean nothing in Congressional Elections, as usually, people might not like Congress, but they love their Congressman, polling from individual districts right now shows a clear advantage for Democrats. Right now, polling shows that Democrats will pick up more than enough seats to take over the House.

According to the polling compilations at www.electoral-vote.com:

"Projected New House*: 229 Democrats 205 Republicans 1 Tie * Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-01 AZ-08 CT-04 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 MN-06 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups: 0"

Source: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 

[Adrian]

I'd just like to go on record at this point and say that I'm not calling the election one way or the other.

Am I just covering my butt so I don't look like a total idiot later? Damn straight.

 

[Deegan]

I'd just like to go on record at this point and say that I'm not calling the election one way or the other.

Am I just covering my butt so I don't look like a total idiot later? Damn straight.

LOl, good idea, but I will, and have gone out on a limb, Dem's take the House, and The Rep. keep the Senate. I also think that Rick will keep his seat in Penn. that's my long shot pick, lol.:lol:

 

[ALiberalModerate]

LOl, good idea, but I will, and have gone out on a limb, Dem's take the House, and The Rep. keep the Senate. I also think that Rick will keep his seat in Penn. that's my long shot pick, lol.:lol:

I don't think Rick has a chance at keeping his seat. I would be willing to bet he looses by as much as 10%, maybe even more. Right now polling has Rick about 10 points behind, and I doubt there are any undecided in that race.

The Reps will probably keep the Senate, by a slim margin though. And that is only if they win in Tennessee.

On a side note. Because less populated states get the same amount of Senators as more populated states, currently, even though Republicans have the majority, they represent a minority of the people. Conversely, even though Democrats are the minority party in the Senate, they represent the majority of Americans because of the population of the states they do represent.