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In new national poll, Clinton gains and Trump drops

danarhea

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Another poll is out showing Hillary Clinton with a widening lead following the conventions.
The Monmouth University Poll released Monday had the former secretary of State with the support of 46% of registered voters nationally, while Donald Trump had the support of 34%, Libertarian Gary Johnson had 7% backing and the Green Party’s Jill Stein had 2%. Among likely voters, Clinton had 50%, Trump 37%, Johnson 7% and Stein 2%.

A 13 point lead for Clinton among likely voters? Want my take on this? Here it is. Don't pay any attention to it. The only reason I posted this is because someone else posted a poll showing Trump even with Hillary. Come on, folks, use a little common sense. If one poll can show Trump kicking ass, and another poll, almost at the same time, show Clinton kicking ass, don't you think there might be something a little off with all these polls? IMHO, polls claim to use scientific methods, but if the polls can be this wide apart from each other, then how scientific are they really? They are nothing more than educated guesses (de-emphasis on educated) based on responses from voters. Out of all these polls, with varying results, which one IS the scientific one? IS there a scientific one at all? If you think there is, now is the time to present your evidence, which I will most likely laugh my ass off at.

At this point in time, based on using my brain, along with a little critical thinking skill, I would say that Hillary Clinton does have a bit of a lead, but 13 points? I doubt it. I believe that this poll is just as inaccurate as one which shows Trump leading the race. Also, this is August. Let's see what the polling numbers look like on election day.

I think the mods need to make a new rule for breaking news........ Polls don't count as breaking news, and those who post polls as news, even if they are news, should get an infraction...... Oh crap, I think I am attempting to get an infraction for myself here. Like I am not satisfied with being the King of violating Breaking News rules already? LOL.

Article is here
.
 
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TheGoverness

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A 13 point lead for Clinton among likely voters? Want my take on this? Here it is. Don't pay any attention to it. The only reason I posted this is because someone else posted a poll showing Trump even with Hillary. Come on, folks, use a little common sense. If one poll can show Trump kicking ass, and another poll, almost at the same time, show Clinton kicking ass, don't you think there might be something a little off with all these polls? IMHO, polls claim to use scientific methods, but if the polls can be this wide apart from each other, then how scientific are they really? They are nothing more than educated guesses (de-emphasis on educated) based on responses from voters. Out of all these polls, with varying results, which one IS the scientific one? IS there a scientific one at all? If you think there is, now is the time to present your evidence, which I will most likely laugh my ass off at.

At this point in time, based on using my brain, along with a little critical thinking skill, I would say that Hillary Clinton does have a bit of a lead, but 13 points? I doubt it. I believe that this poll is just as inaccurate as one which shows Trump leading the race. Also, this is August. Let's see what the polling numbers look like on election day.

Article is here
.

Yep that's why I'm not banking on polls, anything can happen at this point.
 

Napoleon

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They can all be scientific without reaching the same conclusion. Stand-alone polls are fairly meaningless, partly due to small sample size, but the averages produced by analyzing multiple polls can have some value.
 

danarhea

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They can all be scientific without reaching the same conclusion. Stand-alone polls are fairly meaningless, partly due to small sample size, but the averages produced by analyzing multiple polls can have some value.

But that's the problem. A lot of people are only interested in stand-alone polls which support their candidate.
 

Perotista

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A 13 point lead for Clinton among likely voters? Want my take on this? Here it is. Don't pay any attention to it. The only reason I posted this is because someone else posted a poll showing Trump even with Hillary. Come on, folks, use a little common sense. If one poll can show Trump kicking ass, and another poll, almost at the same time, show Clinton kicking ass, don't you think there might be something a little off with all these polls? IMHO, polls claim to use scientific methods, but if the polls can be this wide apart from each other, then how scientific are they really? They are nothing more than educated guesses (de-emphasis on educated) based on responses from voters. Out of all these polls, with varying results, which one IS the scientific one? IS there a scientific one at all? If you think there is, now is the time to present your evidence, which I will most likely laugh my ass off at.

At this point in time, based on using my brain, along with a little critical thinking skill, I would say that Hillary Clinton does have a bit of a lead, but 13 points? I doubt it. I believe that this poll is just as inaccurate as one which shows Trump leading the race. Also, this is August. Let's see what the polling numbers look like on election day.

I think the mods need to make a new rule for breaking news........ Polls don't count as breaking news, and those who post polls as news, even if they are news, should get an infraction...... Oh crap, I think I am attempting to get an infraction for myself here. Like I am not satisfied with being the King of violating Breaking News rules already? LOL.

Article is here
.

Here is RCP average which is the average of ten national pollsters including third party candidates Johnson and Stein.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Trump is in deep doo doo. If the election were held today, he could actually lose Georgia.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Georgia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

A Clinton win in Arizona, she only trails by two points, within the MOE.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Things are not looking good for The Donald.
 

danarhea

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Here is RCP average which is the average of ten national pollsters including third party candidates Johnson and Stein.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Trump is in deep doo doo. If the election were held today, he could actually lose Georgia.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Georgia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

A Clinton win in Arizona, she only trails by two points, within the MOE.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Things are not looking good for The Donald.

But those polls are not showing a 13 point lead for her either.
 

Napoleon

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But those polls are not showing a 13 point lead for her either.

I don't think the precise percentage matters much. The averages bear out that Donald Trump will be eating a big fat slice of Humble Pie come November.
 

Fenton

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A 13 point lead for Clinton among likely voters? Want my take on this? Here it is. Don't pay any attention to it. The only reason I posted this is because someone else posted a poll showing Trump even with Hillary. Come on, folks, use a little common sense. If one poll can show Trump kicking ass, and another poll, almost at the same time, show Clinton kicking ass, don't you think there might be something a little off with all these polls? IMHO, polls claim to use scientific methods, but if the polls can be this wide apart from each other, then how scientific are they really? They are nothing more than educated guesses (de-emphasis on educated) based on responses from voters. Out of all these polls, with varying results, which one IS the scientific one? IS there a scientific one at all? If you think there is, now is the time to present your evidence, which I will most likely laugh my ass off at.

At this point in time, based on using my brain, along with a little critical thinking skill, I would say that Hillary Clinton does have a bit of a lead, but 13 points? I doubt it. I believe that this poll is just as inaccurate as one which shows Trump leading the race. Also, this is August. Let's see what the polling numbers look like on election day.

I think the mods need to make a new rule for breaking news........ Polls don't count as breaking news, and those who post polls as news, even if they are news, should get an infraction...... Oh crap, I think I am attempting to get an infraction for myself here. Like I am not satisfied with being the King of violating Breaking News rules already? LOL.

Article is here
.

More leaked DNC emails might be coming - Business Insider
 

Perotista

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But those polls are not showing a 13 point lead for her either.

I go by averaging. Any one poll can be skewed or the pollster just had a bad day. They happen. By averaging I think you get a more realistic view of where thing stands today. There can be no doubt Clinton is well ahead nationally. What averaging does is shrink the MOE. In the Monmouth Poll, it had an MOE of plus or minus 3.8 points. So Clinton may actually be at 46.2% and Trump at 40.8% instead of 50-37. That is applying the maximum MOE to the poll which Monmouth's states exists.

Now I believe RCP's average of 44-37 is more realistic. Still 7 points is nothing to sneeze at. That is a good sizable lead. The question remaining is that lead a result of Hillary's convention bounce, Trump's foot in mouth disease, both and will it correct itself in a couple of weeks to about where things stood prior to the conventions? Only time will tell.

Clinton had a four point lead prior to the conventions 40-36.
 

Taylor

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A 13 point lead for Clinton among likely voters? Want my take on this? Here it is. Don't pay any attention to it. The only reason I posted this is because someone else posted a poll showing Trump even with Hillary. Come on, folks, use a little common sense. If one poll can show Trump kicking ass, and another poll, almost at the same time, show Clinton kicking ass, don't you think there might be something a little off with all these polls? IMHO, polls claim to use scientific methods, but if the polls can be this wide apart from each other, then how scientific are they really? They are nothing more than educated guesses (de-emphasis on educated) based on responses from voters. Out of all these polls, with varying results, which one IS the scientific one? IS there a scientific one at all? If you think there is, now is the time to present your evidence, which I will most likely laugh my ass off at.
I'd love to know how you define science if you believe that it always produces the correct answers.

It's extremely common for scientists studying the same thing using different methodologies to gather conflicting data or arrive at different conclusions. This in no way makes them unscientific.
 
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Threegoofs

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But that's the problem. A lot of people are only interested in stand-alone polls which support their candidate.

Right. So it's not the polls that are at fault, or the science and statistics behind them.

It's the biased interpretation.
 

OpportunityCost

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I go by averaging. Any one poll can be skewed or the pollster just had a bad day. They happen. By averaging I think you get a more realistic view of where thing stands today. There can be no doubt Clinton is well ahead nationally. What averaging does is shrink the MOE. In the Monmouth Poll, it had an MOE of plus or minus 3.8 points. So Clinton may actually be at 46.2% and Trump at 40.8% instead of 50-37. That is applying the maximum MOE to the poll which Monmouth's states exists.

Now I believe RCP's average of 44-37 is more realistic. Still 7 points is nothing to sneeze at. That is a good sizable lead. The question remaining is that lead a result of Hillary's convention bounce, Trump's foot in mouth disease, both and will it correct itself in a couple of weeks to about where things stood prior to the conventions? Only time will tell.

Clinton had a four point lead prior to the conventions 40-36.

I don't believe in averaging because the NYT/CBS polls and the NBC polls tend to be heavy liberally biased, not to mention they have used KOS in there before. I do look at all of them for some insights but I am in the its too early to tell crowd.
 

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I don't believe in averaging because the NYT/CBS polls and the NBC polls tend to be heavy liberally biased, not to mention they have used KOS in there before. I do look at all of them for some insights but I am in the its too early to tell crowd.

Polls are useful as a guide to where things stand today. More accurately where they stood a couple of days before the poll was released as usually it takes 3 days to take, another to compile and weigh, before finally releasing it. NBC liberal, joins with the Wall Street Journal conservative on their polls. But the bias in polls is usually a result of trying to get things right for most pollsters, although there are some out there who just want to push their candidate. These are usually taken by the political party themselves and are called internal polls.

But what happens is you have an election which the polls show one they were off in favor of one party, then the pollster compensate for that in the next election and they are usually off in favor of the other party. Once again the compensation takes place and they find out they over compensated again and reversed the bias if one wants to call it that back to the original party and so it goes.

Most pollsters try to get it right, their livelihood depends on it. If a polling firm is constantly wrong, in error fewer folks will be hiring that firm to do their polls. But the methods used to gather the information, the size of those polled, the different models used to correlate and interpret the data obtain will all lead to various different results. Then there is always the MOE. Just go with the polls you're comfortable with knowing that whatever the poll says, even if released today is at least 2-3 days if not more behind or old.
 

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Here is RCP average which is the average of ten national pollsters including third party candidates Johnson and Stein.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Trump is in deep doo doo. If the election were held today, he could actually lose Georgia.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Georgia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

A Clinton win in Arizona, she only trails by two points, within the MOE.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Things are not looking good for The Donald.

This election is starting to feel like Obama versus Romney all over again. During that time the conservatives thought Romney was going to win.
 

tres borrachos

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I go by averaging. Any one poll can be skewed or the pollster just had a bad day. They happen. By averaging I think you get a more realistic view of where thing stands today. There can be no doubt Clinton is well ahead nationally. What averaging does is shrink the MOE. In the Monmouth Poll, it had an MOE of plus or minus 3.8 points. So Clinton may actually be at 46.2% and Trump at 40.8% instead of 50-37. That is applying the maximum MOE to the poll which Monmouth's states exists.

Now I believe RCP's average of 44-37 is more realistic. Still 7 points is nothing to sneeze at. That is a good sizable lead. The question remaining is that lead a result of Hillary's convention bounce, Trump's foot in mouth disease, both and will it correct itself in a couple of weeks to about where things stood prior to the conventions? Only time will tell.

Clinton had a four point lead prior to the conventions 40-36.

I saw something this morning, I think it was the Monmouth polls, breaking down the white votes for Trump. He's either barely tied with or slightly behind Romney, except "white women with college degrees", where he's a full 30 points behind Romney's support by white women with college degrees. If that continues, there is no conceivable way that Trump can win.
 

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This election is starting to feel like Obama versus Romney all over again. During that time the conservatives thought Romney was going to win.

The polling average for Obama vs. Romney after the first week of August was Obama 47, Romney 45. Within the MOE. Romney actually took the lead in October after the first debate 49-46, but lost it after the second debate. There is quite a difference in my opinion between a two point deficit Romney trailed in 2012 at this juncture to the eight point lead Clinton has today. Since polling began in 1936 there has been only one candidate who trailed by eight points or more and came back to win, that was Truman in 1948. He was also an incumbent president who caught fire campaigning against the Republican do nothing congress.
 

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I saw something this morning, I think it was the Monmouth polls, breaking down the white votes for Trump. He's either barely tied with or slightly behind Romney, except "white women with college degrees", where he's a full 30 points behind Romney's support by white women with college degrees. If that continues, there is no conceivable way that Trump can win.

At this time, I don't think so either. He has made way too many enemies within the Republican party and way too many mistakes with his mouth and his penchant for vendettas against anyone who says something unkind about him. Trump is defeating himself.
 

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I saw something this morning, I think it was the Monmouth polls, breaking down the white votes for Trump. He's either barely tied with or slightly behind Romney, except "white women with college degrees", where he's a full 30 points behind Romney's support by white women with college degrees. If that continues, there is no conceivable way that Trump can win.
Worth remembering: Romney won 59% of whites, a higher percentage than Reagan.

And lost.

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Worth remembering: Romney won 59% of whites, a higher percentage than Reagan.

And lost.

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That's because since 1980 the Caucasian demographics are on a descending slope, in terms of proportion.

59% of a smaller slice of the pie, means a smaller portion of the total vote.

There's just not enough non-college educated whites to carry Trump over the finish-line, without some help from the other demographics. And despite Trump's claims of "Hispanics love me", I don't see him pulling much support from Hispanics *or* African-Americans.
 

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That's because since 1980 the Caucasian demographics are on a descending slope, in terms of proportion.

59% of a smaller slice of the pie, means a smaller portion of the total vote.

There's just not enough non-college educated whites to carry Trump over the finish-line, without some help from the other demographics. And despite Trump's claims of "Hispanics love me", I don't see him pulling much support from Hispanics *or* African-Americans.

Maybe it's because they don't actually love him.

Just a theory. :shrug:
 

cpwill

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That's because since 1980 the Caucasian demographics are on a descending slope, in terms of proportion.

59% of a smaller slice of the pie, means a smaller portion of the total vote.

There's just not enough non-college educated whites to carry Trump over the finish-line, without some help from the other demographics. And despite Trump's claims of "Hispanics love me", I don't see him pulling much support from Hispanics *or* African-Americans.
But.... but... but his rallies are so big!


:roll:

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The current prediction of how the electoral college would vote if the election where being held to day is:

Clinton 353
ties 6
Trump 179

At the same date in the election in 2012 it was

Obama 323
ties 9
Romney 206

Real election result was 332 for Obama and 206 Romney

At the same date in 2008 it was:

Obama 289
ties 13
McCain 236

Real election result was 365 Obama and 173 McCain

ElectoralVote

It may not say much but the Trump campaign seems to have a Herculean task ahead of itself if it wants to come close to 270
 

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I do tend to think that Trump is going to get crushed in the EVs. But there's a lot of time between now and November, so we'll see how it comes out.
 
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