In a cell-phone world, is polling even possible?

Politics aside for a second.

Just how do these polling agencies work these days? Who has a land line, and of those who do (like me), who answers them (I don't)?

Have you been polled? Who gets polled? I don't really know anyone who's been polled?

Not only are the samples small, and the weighting is entirely subjective, but there's really no way to reach people unless you call them on their cell phone, which is not supposed to be allowed, or confront them on the street, which most people will reject.

Are the polls more of a complete "guess" than ever? And if so, what is the future of polling?

Erod said:

what is the future of polling?

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Mind reading, I'm call it.

I have been polled about 5 times on landline and have hung up on them another 10 times. I have no idea which polls are legit and which one are not.

Pollsters do not believe polls will be around in 20 years. They will model off social networks.

Fisher said:

I have been polled about 5 times on landline and have hung up on them another 10 times. I have no idea which polls are legit and which one are not.

Pollsters do not believe polls will be around in 20 years. They will model off social networks.

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What state are you in, Fisher?

I have both a landline and a cell phone. My husband also has a cell phone. We've both been polled to death on the landline, but never been called on our cells.

Most pollsters are polling cell phones now. Rasmussen is an exception. I've probably been polled half a dozen times (Florida) by land line. Haven't been polled by cell. My guess is that they only call cell users who don't have land line listings.

AdamT said:

Most pollsters are polling cell phones now. Rasmussen is an exception. I've probably been polled half a dozen times (Florida) by land line. Haven't been polled by cell. My guess is that they only call cell users who don't have land line listings.

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I thought they weren't supposed to call cell phones. I don't have an issue with it, but I thought it wasn't allowed because of the potential cost to the cell owner.

Erod said:

I thought they weren't supposed to call cell phones. I don't have an issue with it, but I thought it wasn't allowed because of the potential cost to the cell owner.

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I guess they figured some way around it, because they are polling cell users.

Gallup, for example: Does Gallup call cell phones?

Being in Florida, we've been polled. Either we refuse or give false answers. I believe polling should be outlawed.

I have nothing against polling, but if you want to approach accuracy at all, you have to get at sub-populations. Polling organizations rarely attempt to match the poll population sub-populations to those of the US population or the state population as a whole, as sociologists would, and that is why polls can vary so much. I do, however, hate likely voter polls, because their models of the likely voter are skewed toward those who keep voting at the same polling place and have voted regularly in the mid-terms or voted in the last mid-term. This means they have voted before, have not changed residences, and have not voted by absentee ballot. That pretty much eliminates large numbers of younger people and people who have a harder time voting in person because it interferes with a job. ???