There are several feelings I have toward a potential Roe v. Wade overturn. If the leak is as it appears to be, then it has made SCOTUS a player in the gamesmanship in Washington. This means that they can no longer be counted on to provide a neutral ruling on cases. Second, if SCOTUS wanted to rule on the matter, they could have found a neutral ground on which they abolished third trimester (aka, “Late-term") abortions at the federal level. Finally, they are violating the spirit in which John Marshall’s historic Marbury v. Madison case was decided.
(If I actually thought such a case could be won, I would argue that now is the time to appeal the Marbury v. Madison decision. The decision gave the Supreme Court power to decide matters such as these. Go read the Constitution. The modern-day function of SCOTUS is found nowhere in the Constitution. I’ll wait.)
Now that we’ve all read up on the Constitution and how SCOTUS’s main function is arguably and ironically unconstitutional to begin with, let’s discuss the practical implications of a Roe v. Wade overturn.
I ran an analysis on the Senate races that assumes that:
To make these predictions or assumptions, I evaluated Senate races on the basis of eight things:
I can provide sources, etc., that went into this analysis if you would like. Admittedly, some of these sources are imperfect, but I believe them to be better than what we have.
Here is the final "Energy" or "momentum" map for all 50 states:
Here is the final map when those factors above are linked up with current polling data (which also can change):
(If I actually thought such a case could be won, I would argue that now is the time to appeal the Marbury v. Madison decision. The decision gave the Supreme Court power to decide matters such as these. Go read the Constitution. The modern-day function of SCOTUS is found nowhere in the Constitution. I’ll wait.)
Now that we’ve all read up on the Constitution and how SCOTUS’s main function is arguably and ironically unconstitutional to begin with, let’s discuss the practical implications of a Roe v. Wade overturn.
I ran an analysis on the Senate races that assumes that:
- Democrats can make an effective pro-choice
- Republicans can make an effective pro-life argument
To make these predictions or assumptions, I evaluated Senate races on the basis of eight things:
- States where Women outnumber men (or vice-versa)
- States where the most abortions are performed (according to the most recently-available statistics)
- States where those who voted third party can make a difference
- States where there is a large presence of religiously-affiliated voters. Must have over 60%
- States where there is a large presence of none-affiliated voters. Must have over 25%.
- States where there are a large number of pro-life organizations. Must appear on top 10 list by Christian Headlines.
- States where there are a large number of pro-choice organizations. Must appear on bottom 10 of list by Christian Life.
- Opinion on abortion by state, according to YouGov
I can provide sources, etc., that went into this analysis if you would like. Admittedly, some of these sources are imperfect, but I believe them to be better than what we have.
Here is the final "Energy" or "momentum" map for all 50 states:
2022 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin
Who will control the Senate? Review and predict the outcome of the 35 Senate races in the 2022 elections.
www.270towin.com
Here is the final map when those factors above are linked up with current polling data (which also can change):
2022 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin
Who will control the Senate? Review and predict the outcome of the 35 Senate races in the 2022 elections.
www.270towin.com