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IMF warning on Brexit

Infinite Chaos

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The UK's exit from the European Union could cause "severe regional and global damage", the International Monetary Fund has warned in its latest outlook.
A so-called "Brexit" would disrupt established trading relationships and cause "major challenges" for both the UK and the rest of Europe, it said. Link.

Rather a lot harder for the Brexit camp to paint this as a Downing Street smear for "project fear" but how accurate could the IMF warning be?

Vote Leave said:
"the IMF had been "consistently wrong" in past forecasts."

Maybe this will force some facts (from either side) out into the open?
 

OrphanSlug

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The IMF has every reason to be against Brexit, it makes perfect sense for them to suggest "severe regional and global damage."
 

joG

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Rather a lot harder for the Brexit camp to paint this as a Downing Street smear for "project fear" but how accurate could the IMF warning be?



Maybe this will force some facts (from either side) out into the open?

Nope. Not Downing Street, that. That woman is French pro EU to the core.
 

joG

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The IMF has every reason to be against Brexit, it makes perfect sense for them to suggest "severe regional and global damage."

That is about right. What they don't say is that Brexit could have anything from a positive economic impact to a highly negative one. It all depends on how the EU acts.
 

Chagos

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Rather a lot harder for the Brexit camp to paint this as a Downing Street smear for "project fear" but how accurate could the IMF warning be?



Maybe this will force some facts (from either side) out into the open?
Well, I'd certainly not think that it takes a financial wizard to agree with these two points (cited in the article)

If the 23 June referendum in the UK were to produce a vote in favour of leaving the EU, the IMF would expect negotiations on post-exit arrangements to be protracted, which it warned "could weigh heavily on confidence and investment, all the while increasing financial market volatility".
It also believes a UK exit from the EU would "disrupt and reduce mutual trade and financial flows" and restrict benefits from economic co-operation and integration, such as those resulting from economies of scale.
Now to what extent these effects would prevail into the future and indeed what long term influence they'd have on it remains speculation.

Totally absurd however is the pipe dream (whistling in the dark) notion held by many that a Brexit would have everything continuing as before and that practically overnight.

Protracted post exit arrangements will certainly upset the apple cart for everyone and, depending on how protracted they be, for an indefinable time.
 

Chagos

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That is about right. What they don't say is that Brexit could have anything from a positive economic impact to a highly negative one. It all depends on how the EU acts.
What you're not getting is that in the initial disruption it's going to be less a matter of how the EU acts, it's the markets that you have to worry about.

Also that the disruption could be lengthy alone on account of the EU being incapable of deciding speedily on whatever action.

Uncertainty is poison, lengthy uncertainty poisonosser (ouch:eek:).
 

Chagos

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Nope. Not Downing Street, that. That woman is French pro EU to the core.
Non-sequitur.

You don't rise in the IMF for personal and national bias.
 

joG

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What you're not getting is that in the initial disruption it's going to be less a matter of how the EU acts, it's the markets that you have to worry about.

Also that the disruption could be lengthy alone on account of the EU being incapable of deciding speedily on whatever action.

Uncertainty is poison, lengthy uncertainty poisonosser (ouch:eek:).

The markets will act according to expected risk and opportunity. If the EU makes clear that they will act as they usually do, the market will short Europe. If it is believably made clear how they will avoid damage and increase profits? But you are right that the EU acting well is hardly credible.
 

joG

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Non-sequitur.

You don't rise in the IMF for personal and national bias.

True. But the head was chosen on her EU credentials.
 

Chagos

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The markets will act according to expected risk and opportunity. If the EU makes clear that they will act as they usually do, the market will short Europe. If it is believably made clear how they will avoid damage and increase profits? But you are right that the EU acting well is hardly credible.
I didn't say anything of the sort, so quit twisting.

Beyond which your picture of markets shorting the EU in any conceivable scenario seems pretty naive. Maybe you need to get out more and taste reality.:) Ideological broom closets are not the place to find it.
 

Chagos

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True. But the head was chosen on her EU credentials.
She was elected on her experience and professional credentials, her candidacy supported by such non-EU countries as India, China Brazil and Russia. And the US. In the EU Britain supported it as well.
 

joG

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I didn't say anything of the sort, so quit twisting.

Beyond which your picture of markets shorting the EU in any conceivable scenario seems pretty naive. Maybe you need to get out more and taste reality.:) Ideological broom closets are not the place to find it.

I just used the sloppy language we used in international markets. Sorry you are si stiff and cannot follow. But honestly. What you indicated was exactly what you say you didn't.
 

joG

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She was elected on her experience and professional credentials, her candidacy supported by such non-EU countries as India, China Brazil and Russia. And the US. In the EU Britain supported it as well.

Yawn. You might want to revisit the way the head of the IMF is elected and review her predecessors. Nobody said her credentials weren't good. And one was her belonging to the EU people. She isn't as bad as some, but that doesn't change that much.
 

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Rather a lot harder for the Brexit camp to paint this as a Downing Street smear for "project fear" but how accurate could the IMF warning be?

Well like all forcasts they are like farting in the wind. However the fact that it is the IMF, then their worries could easily pass around the world.

Maybe this will force some facts (from either side) out into the open?

Well the fact that the Brexit folks say that the IMF are usually wrong about the British economy is kinda funny considering the sitting government, both for and against the EU people are horrible in predicting the UK economy :) Hell Osbournes last forecast went tits up days after he presented it..
 

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I just used the sloppy language we used in international markets. Sorry you are si stiff and cannot follow. But honestly. What you indicated was exactly what you say you didn't.
Hmmm.........dark and obscure appears thine speeches meaning :2razz:
 

Chagos

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Take a nap, mate
Nobody said her credentials weren't good. And one was..........
Ah thanks. That's certainly more precise than the statement that she was elected only on that.

But enough of this, your yawn is infectious.
 

Hawkeye10

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The credibility of the IMF has been is rapid decline for well over a decade. THis is a post WW2 institution that needs to be replaced when we finally get around to trying to save the global economic system by way of reform (we will fail, the current system is in a death spiral). After the IMF violated its own rules in Greece and went along with all of the sham rescues there I would expect the Brits to not pay much attention to what the IMF wants.
 

joG

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Take a nap, mate Ah thanks. That's certainly more precise than the statement that she was elected only on that.

But enough of this, your yawn is infectious.

True. That alone would certainly not been enough. There are too many of that kind loitering in the hallways og Brussels' and members' seats of government that fit that criterium. But it would have excluded her from the job, had she not been a merciless EU adherent.
 

PeteEU

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True. But the head was chosen on her EU credentials.

No.. she was chosen on her European and financial credentials as there is a tradition that the head of the IMF is from Europe and the head of the World Bank is from the US.
 

joG

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No.. she was chosen on her European and financial credentials as there is a tradition that the head of the IMF is from Europe and the head of the World Bank is from the US.

Is from Europe. In this case a once time french minister like that fellow that preceded her also a dedicated follower of a perpetually deepening EU. One of those populist believers of your faith. ;)
 

Infinite Chaos

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And? Kölner wasn't a strong acolyte of deeper Union? Or Strauß-Kahn and Camdessus or Rato? You don't think they were heavily biased?

Were all the previous directors pro EU or just some of them? Also, as Chagos pointed out - Directors of the IMF are elected by a range of countries including major non-EU countries so I'm not sure what you're arguing here.
It just appears you think the IMF is some kind of branch of the EU.
 

joG

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Were all the previous directors pro EU or just some of them? Also, as Chagos pointed out - Directors of the IMF are elected by a range of countries including major non-EU countries so I'm not sure what you're arguing here.
It just appears you think the IMF is some kind of branch of the EU.

All true. Whether every one of the Directors was strongly pro deeper Union or not, I would have to look into. The ones mentioned above were, however. The reason is, that the governments of all EU countries have been pro deeper Union and there is an informal agreement that the US will go with the European candidate, while the Europeans go with the US on the World Bank nomination. As the US and EU members together hold the majority of votes, the participating non-EU countries cannot influence the outcome of the election.
 

Infinite Chaos

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~ that the governments of all EU countries have been pro deeper Union ~

Yeah, that's the bit that concerns most Brits but I don't think many would extend that worry to suggesting the IMF is a pro deeper union body. Pro stability, yes - deeper union, I'd say ambivalent.
 
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