If Trump is reelected, how do you think the economy will fare?

Guyzilla said:

Trump says, that alls we have to do, is open up. That the economy is rearing to go. A VVVVVVV shaped curve. We have more death, more infection and more hospitalization than most if not all others. We have more scofflaws and antimaskers than all others. WE have a gov that doesnt think that gov should be involved in anything other than war, and maybe the economy. We have a gov that insists on putting all responsibility on the states, and particularly on Democrats. WE have chaos in trying to fashion opening strategies that dont kill customers.

And so I ask.

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Cardinal said:

1)The pandemic will continue to be handled badly, so everything about the economy you see now will continue in tandem with the pandemic.

2)The vaccine, when available, will be rolled out in a chaotic and ineffective way, so see point #1.

So the economy will continue in the way you see it now.

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Guyzilla said:

Trump says, that alls we have to do, is open up. That the economy is rearing to go. A VVVVVVV shaped curve. We have more death, more infection and more hospitalization than most if not all others. We have more scofflaws and antimaskers than all others. WE have a gov that doesnt think that gov should be involved in anything other than war, and maybe the economy. We have a gov that insists on putting all responsibility on the states, and particularly on Democrats. WE have chaos in trying to fashion opening strategies that dont kill customers.

And so I ask.

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Mr Person said:

And Trumpists will blame Biden for it.

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Mr Person said:

And Trumpists will blame Biden for it.

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Cardinal said:

1)The pandemic will continue to be handled badly, so everything about the economy you see now will continue in tandem with the pandemic.

2)The vaccine, when available, will be rolled out in a chaotic and ineffective way, so see point #1.

So the economy will continue in the way you see it now.

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Mr Person said:

And Trumpists will blame Biden for it.

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Chomsky said:

Seeing as we are constantly growing by leaps & bounds in the number infected, and that a vaccine along with anti-virals are likely next year, I think we will be well on the road to recovery by the end of the year (2021).

We don't need total heard/vaccination immunity. Some posit 5% (or even 10%) of us have already been infected. If true, we may be 20% (or more) infected by the end of next year. If we can get another 20% vaccinated (kids for school + essential workers is a good start), we will be in a position to greatly retard the spread of the virus (40%).

It may not be perfect. It may not be eradicated. But it will be far more manageable. If R0 gets below unity (1), then we are good. I believe immunity/vaccination levels of 30 or 40%, with minimal sensible societal precautions, should keep us below R0 = 1.

Obviously though, this is predicated with the disease producing individual immunity. We don't know this for sure, but it seems to be occurring at least in the short term. Let's hope!

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Cardinal said:

Sorry, Chomsky, but your projection assumes an orderly vaccine rollout. That ain't happening. And I'm going to be invited into a Playboy Playmate orgy before we get to R0 of 1 (let alone below 1) so long as Trump is President, because, again, that assumes an orderly vaccine rollout.

If everybody wore a mask, we would get to R0 of 1. If everybody wore a mask, socially distanced and abided by controlled lockdowns, we'd get to R0 < 1. In today's climate (and it will be even worse in a second trump term)...that is absolutely not happening.

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Chomsky said:

You don't believe we can get to 15-20% vaccination levels by the end of next year? By mandating kids, first-responders/essential workers, and perhaps federal employees/contractors? If not, why?

Also, do you doubt we will get to some non-trivial level of infected in the next 18 months? Say, maybe 15% or more?

We don't need herd immunity. 30% will greatly impede the spread. In fact, 40% is often thought to be the lower-end of herd immunity.

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Cardinal said:

I'm doubting it because that requires a national coordination (not happening under a first term, let alone a second trump term when he's going to be a hundred times more dysfunctional and sociopathic), and because a vaccine is likely to provide a limited immunity time. Vaccinating enough people to get to herd immunity in the absence of a national coordination will be whack-a-mole from Hell.

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Chomsky said:

Ah, alright. You're still under the thread's premise of a Trump 2nd term. Fair enough. I should have been more specific in my first post to you, which was generic in nature.

Yeah, under Trump it becomes more dicey. Under Biden, it is doable I believe.

Here is the scenario I see in apolitical terms. And yes, it may even work under Trump - key word 'may'.

1st roll-out to health-care workers. They get a battery of vaccinations per their job, already. The hospital infrastructure to do this is already in place. Target group (20M).

2nd, first-responders. Also well positioned with an infrastructure in place. Target group (2M).

3rd, school kids. There's an infrastructure to ensure compliance (schools) and delivery (various current providers). Target group (k-12 = 50M). Add another 20M for college kids (infrastructure in place to verify insurance, can be easily modified to require a vaccination submittal). Total target group (70M).

4th, federal employees. Again, a compliance infrastructure is already in place (HR). Target group = 2M. Add state & municipal employees for another 18-20M. Total target group (20M)

That's 112M targets, where the delivery & compliance infrastructure is already in place to various degrees. To hit 15% of our total populace, we would need to vaccinate just under 50M (44%) of the groups above. Hell, healthcare-workers, first-responders, and government workers alone get us there! Throw-in a smattering of school kids, and we're at 20%.

I think this is doable, Cardinal. Very doable. Mark my words: By the end of next year we will be well on the road to recovery. A combination of vaccination(s), antivirals, and herd immunity, will get us on the right track.

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Cardinal said:

Under a non-kakistocracy, yes, that is a good rollout and quite doable. The only edit I would suggest is replace #3 with the elderly, because that's the group most likely to get sick and die. Unless you're approaching this from the angle that kids are most likely to contract the disease and most likely to spread it, or at the very least vaccinating them sooner would allow parents to finally free themselves of this nightmare. This detail is probably a philosophical sticking point more than anything.

Under a kakistocracy, there's not a chance your proposed rollout would happen.

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Guyzilla said:

Trump says, that alls we have to do, is open up. That the economy is rearing to go. A VVVVVVV shaped curve. We have more death, more infection and more hospitalization than most if not all others. We have more scofflaws and antimaskers than all others. WE have a gov that doesnt think that gov should be involved in anything other than war, and maybe the economy. We have a gov that insists on putting all responsibility on the states, and particularly on Democrats. WE have chaos in trying to fashion opening strategies that dont kill customers.

And so I ask.

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Luther said:

Well, I definitely believe we wont get the Trump 4, 5 and even 6% economy(LOL)

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