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Idiotic Environmental Predictions

Jack Hays said:
Indeed.


Recent CO2 Climate Sensitivity Estimates Continue Trending Towards Zero

By Kenneth Richard on 16. October 2017
Updated: The Shrinking CO2 Climate Sensitivity A recently highlighted paper published by atmospheric scientists Scafetta et al., (2017) featured a graph (above) documenting post-2000 trends in the published estimates of the Earth’s climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 concentrations (from 280 parts per million to 560 ppm). The trajectory for the published estimates of transient climate response […]
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Can I ask why Scaffetta published in a journal that has nothing to do with climate? It was published in Int'l Journal of Heat and Technology. While that certainly deals with heat transfer I'm curious why such an obscure journal choice.

Hmmmm.

I'll stick with more standard respected outlets and journals, like Nature.

www.nature.com

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

Climate sensitivity, the long-term warming due to doubled atmospheric CO2 levels, is estimated in the range of 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C. A synthesis of work reveals that whether the value falls at the high or low end, future emissions will have to be strongly limited.
www.nature.com www.nature.com
 
istodolez said:
Can I ask why Scaffetta published in a journal that has nothing to do with climate? It was published in Int'l Journal of Heat and Technology. While that certainly deals with heat transfer I'm curious why such an obscure journal choice.

Hmmmm.

I'll stick with more standard respected outlets and journals, like Nature.

www.nature.com

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

Climate sensitivity, the long-term warming due to doubled atmospheric CO2 levels, is estimated in the range of 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C. A synthesis of work reveals that whether the value falls at the high or low end, future emissions will have to be strongly limited.
www.nature.com www.nature.com
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Sounds like a credentialist deflection. I would think the papers reviewed would be more important than where Scaffetta published.
 
Jack Hays said:
Sounds like a credentialist deflection. I would think the papers reviewed would be more important than where Scaffetta published.
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So you've never published? I am not surprised.

But your point is a fair one. Those of us who have published know that not all of our work is going to make the quality standards of higher level journals. I have a variety of published articles spanning known to less-known journals. The quality necessary to get into some of the more strict journals acts as a pretty solid filter. But you are correct it isn't necessarily a valid critique of the data.

But it is ironic that YOU should raise this point after you spent so much time leveraging argumentum ad hominem in debating against Peterson et al.
 
istodolez said:
So you've never published? I am not surprised.

But your point is a fair one. Those of us who have published know that not all of our work is going to make the quality standards of higher level journals. I have a variety of published articles spanning known to less-known journals. The quality necessary to get into some of the more strict journals acts as a pretty solid filter. But you are correct it isn't necessarily a valid critique of the data.

But it is ironic that YOU should raise this point after you spent so much time leveraging argumentum ad hominem in debating against Peterson et al.
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That's because the authors included a known liar and academic vandal.
 
Jack Hays said:
That's because the authors included a known liar and academic vandal.
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Argumentum ad hominem is still not logically sound. But keep trying! I'm certain one day logic and rhetoric will re-evaluate this. Just sure of it!
 
istodolez said:
Argumentum ad hominem is still not logically sound. But keep trying! I'm certain one day logic and rhetoric will re-evaluate this. Just sure of it!
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Felony convictions preclude certain professions. Same for Connolley.
Commonly prohibited industries are banking, insurance, health care and real estate. Lawyers, teachers, psychologists and other professions that require a license are also off limits if you were convicted of a felony. Convictions on the federal and state level can be pardoned by the president or governor, respectively.

Felony Employment Laws
 
Jack Hays said:
Felony convictions preclude certain professions. Same for Connolley.
Commonly prohibited industries are banking, insurance, health care and real estate. Lawyers, teachers, psychologists and other professions that require a license are also off limits if you were convicted of a felony. Convictions on the federal and state level can be pardoned by the president or governor, respectively.
Felony Employment Laws
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Remind me what felony he was guilty of?

But either way it's still an argumentum ad hominem. Crowing about making a logic fallacy does not make the logic fallacy any less fallacious.
 
istodolez said:
Remind me what felony he was guilty of?

But either way it's still an argumentum ad hominem. Crowing about making a logic fallacy does not make the logic fallacy any less fallacious.
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He committed the intellectual equivalent of a felony, suppressing research and papers, and creating a false narrative. And I'm surprised you don't see that.
 
Jack Hays said:
He committed the intellectual equivalent of a felony, suppressing research and papers, and creating a false narrative. And I'm surprised you don't see that.
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It’s like an actual felony, but only recognized by blithering idiots.
 
Came across this list some years ago and have been updating it from time to time ever since:

  • "Global Warming Tipping Point Close?"--headline, ClimateArk.com, Jan. 27, 2004
  • "Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' "--headline, Guardian, Aug. 11, 2005
  • "Earth at the Tipping Point: Global Warming Heats Up"--headline, Time, March 26, 2006
  • "Global Warming 'Tipping Points' Reached, Scientist Says"--headline, NationalGeographic.com, Dec. 14, 2007
  • "Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near on Global Warming"--headline, Puffington Host, June 23, 2008
  • "Global Warming: Those Tipping Points Are Closer Than You Think"--headline, WSJ.com, April 29, 2009
  • "Have We Reached the Tipping Point for Planet Earth?"--video title, StudioTalk.tv, May 11, 2010
  • "Must-Read Hansen and Sato Paper: We Are at a Climate Tipping Point That, Once Crossed, Enables Multi-Meter Sea Level Rise This Century"--headline, ThinkProgress.org, Jan. 20, 2011
  • "Earth: Have We Reached an Environmental Tipping Point?"--headline, BBC website, June 15, 2012
  • "In spite of the continued released [sic] of 90 million tons of global warming pollution every day into the atmosphere, as if it's an open sewer, we are now seeing the approach of a global political tipping point."--Al Gore, interview with Washington Post, Aug. 21, 2013
  • "World close to tipping point on global warming, UN body warns" Irish Times-Mar 31, 2014
  • "Tipping Point Nears for 'Emerging Flooding Crisis'" - Climate Central-Dec 18, 2014
  • "Boreal forest being driven to tipping point by climate change, study ..." - CBC.ca-Aug 21, 2015
  • "Glacier melt shows a climate change tipping point. We must pay ..." - The Guardian-Sep 28, 2015
  • "Goodbye World: We've Passed the Carbon Tipping Point For Good" - Motherboard-Sep 28, 2016
  • "Arctic scientists have warned that the increasingly rapid melting of the ice cap risks triggering 19 “tipping points” in the region that could have catastrophic consequences around the globe." - The Guardian-Nov 25, 2016
  • "Earth warming to climate tipping point, warns study" - BBC News-Nov 30, 2016
  • "Earth will likely warm way beyond the crucial tipping point that the ..." - Markets Insider-Dec 15, 2017
  • "But still, Derocher says there will come a point when the number of ice-free days reaches a tipping point and the [polar bear] populations will start to tank." - Natural Resources Defense Council-Dec 22, 2017
  • "Final countdown to climate chaos underway ... will soon pass a tipping point if people around the world remain indifferent to it." - News24, May 24, 2018
  • "Europe's Largest Asset Manager Sees `Tipping Point' on Climate" - Bloomberg, May 31 2018
  • "'Tipping points' could exacerbate climate crisis, scientists fear" - The Guardian, Oct 9, 2018
  • "2018: A Tipping Point for Climate Change" -- Forbes-Dec 30, 2018
  • "Greenland's Melting Ice Nears a 'Tipping Point,' Scientists Say" -- New York Times-Jan 21, 2019
  • "Climate change tipping point could be coming sooner than we think. -- Science Daily-Jan 23, 2019
  • "Are We Watching the Arctic Pass a Tipping Point This Summer?" - Gizmodo, July 30, 2019
  • "4 climate tipping points the planet is facing" - World Economic Forum, August 2, 2019
  • "The climate change ‘tipping point’ has already arrived for these 70 U.S. counties - grist,com, August 14, 2019
  • "Prince Charles Sets Yet Another Climate-change -Tipping Point'" - New American, July 18, 2019
  • "Earth’s Oceans At A Tipping Point, Landmark UN Climate Change Report Warns" - Forbes, September 25, 2019
  • "Global Climate Tipping Points Could Arrive In a Matter of Years" - Bloomberg, March 10, 2020
  • "Climate tipping point ecosystem collapses may come faster than thought: Studies" - Mongabay, May 11, 2020
  • "Nine climate tipping points now 'active,' warn scientists" - ScienceDaily, November 27, 2019
  • "Tipping point for the climate can already be a reality in East Asia" - EurekAlert!, November 30, 2020
  • "HUMANITY HAS REACHED A NEW, TERRIFYING TIPPING POINT, STUDY FINDS" - Inverse, December 9, 2020
​
FWIW.
 
Sandokan said:
Global warming is the oldest of all superstitions. Ancient superstitions involve human sacrifices to the gods to avoid crop failure due to adverse weather.
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It's great that science came to the rescue to incredibly boost productivity in agriculture over the last 2 centuries. It's too bad that science ALSO says something you don't like to hear.

That's how we know when one is operating from a position of "confirmation bias". They can take science and agree with things that make them happy but call it "superstition" when it fails to make them happy.
 
istodolez said:
It's great that science came to the rescue to incredibly boost productivity in agriculture over the last 2 centuries. It's too bad that science ALSO says something you don't like to hear.

That's how we know when one is operating from a position of "confirmation bias". They can take science and agree with things that make them happy but call it "superstition" when it fails to make them happy.
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On August of 2003 a heat wave killed over 14,000 people in France. Most of the victims were elderly people who died alone in their apartments due to the lack of air conditioning. Socialist economic policies by the government keeps the price of electricity very high, making air conditioning a luxury affordable only to the rich. The heat wave killed many people in the other European countries, but their governments, which have control over their citizens, did not released the number of death. Certainly in their case, since they did not had air conditioning, it did not was the cause their death, the cause of their deaths was the lack of air conditioning due to their government policies.
 
Sandokan said:
On August of 2003 a heat wave killed over 14,000 people in France. Most of the victims were elderly people who died alone in their apartments due to the lack of air conditioning. Socialist economic policies by the government keeps the price of electricity very high, making air conditioning a luxury affordable only to the rich. The heat wave killed many people in the other European countries, but their governments, which have control over their citizens, did not released the number of death. Certainly in their case, since they did not had air conditioning, it did not was the cause their death, the cause of their deaths was the lack of air conditioning due to their government policies.
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Yeah that's pretty awful. It has nothing to do with the topic of climate change and the need to address this issue. It is a very sad thing that societies don't care enough for their people. I live in the US where every year many die because we REFUSE to make healthcare affordable. We literally could not care less about our fellow citizens.

So let's not divert this conversation from the topic of climate change. This is something that NEEDS to be addressed, just as social equity NEEDS to be addressed. Both important topics but not necessarily one or the other.
 
istodolez said:
Yeah that's pretty awful. It has nothing to do with the topic of climate change and the need to address this issue. It is a very sad thing that societies don't care enough for their people. I live in the US where every year many die because we REFUSE to make healthcare affordable. We literally could not care less about our fellow citizens.

So let's not divert this conversation from the topic of climate change. This is something that NEEDS to be addressed, just as social equity NEEDS to be addressed. Both important topics but not necessarily one or the other.
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Keep in mind, there are several pros and cons both if we were to make healthcare more affordable. On of the cons, would be the need to substantially raise taxes. European countries get quite a bit of their tax revenues on energy and what they call luxuries. When I lived in Germany, the people there paid an annual tax on items like TVs and radios. Many of the middle class there didn't live any better than the lower class here.

They also protect their jobs to geep near full employment and have higher paying jobs than we do here. The tax rates on imports keeps their industrial complex well oiled, while ours is rusting away.

Don't get me wrong. I love Germany. I just don't like the amount of government they have.
 
istodolez said:
Yeah that's pretty awful. It has nothing to do with the topic of climate change and the need to address this issue. It is a very sad thing that societies don't care enough for their people. I live in the US where every year many die because we REFUSE to make healthcare affordable. We literally could not care less about our fellow citizens.

So let's not divert this conversation from the topic of climate change. This is something that NEEDS to be addressed, just as social equity NEEDS to be addressed. Both important topics but not necessarily one or the other.
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Your response, “I live in the US where every year many die because we REFUSE to make healthcare affordable”, is the one that “It has nothing to do with the topic of climate change.” You are the one diverting the topic from climate change.

Obviously you did not listen and watch to Tony Heller video “Superstition based Policy”, where he specifically address the issue of government calling for cutting the use of warming chemicals common in air-conditioners and refrigerators. Tony make reference to countries reaching an agreement on limiting hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) emissions from air conditioners and refrigerators to combat climate change. He make reference to the heat wave in New York in 1896 without air conditioner killed close to 1,500 people and give others examples of people killed by heat waves in the U.S. and Europe, saying that those people were not kill by global warming, they were kill by the heat wave and lack of air conditioner. As the saying goes, there is no worse blind than the one who does not want to see.
 
Sandokan said:
Obviously you did not listen and watch to Tony Heller video “Superstition based Policy”, where he specifically address the issue of government calling for cutting the use of warming chemicals common in air-conditioners and refrigerators.
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As I recall CFC's were actually controlled by the Montreal Protocol for their effect on the ozone layer. They are greenhouse gases but as I understood it the call for controls was related to their impact on ozone rather than global warming.

It affected the work I was doing at the time since in the early 90's I was working with oceanographic tracer chemicals and the Montreal Protocol was effectively altering the levels of various CFC's which factored into the research I was doing.

Tony make reference to countries reaching an agreement on limiting hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) emissions from air conditioners and refrigerators to combat climate change.
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mainly to combat ozone depletion as I understood it. It may have had added benefits for warming but as I understood the concept (and the title of the Montreal Protocol) it was related to ozone depletion.
 
NatMorton said:
Came across this list some years ago and have been updating it from time to time ever since:

  • "Global Warming Tipping Point Close?"--headline, ClimateArk.com, Jan. 27, 2004
  • "Warming Hits 'Tipping Point' "--headline, Guardian, Aug. 11, 2005
  • "...
  • "Tipping point for the climate can already be a reality in East Asia" - EurekAlert!, November 30, 2020
  • "HUMANITY HAS REACHED A NEW, TERRIFYING TIPPING POINT, STUDY FINDS" - Inverse, December 9, 2020
​
FWIW.
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Here's a question: what if they're right?

Tipping Points don't mean that you will see anything different in your day-to-day activities. We won't notice it at all, likely. It simply means that future actions won't be able to stop the effects.

Let's say you walked into work on Monday and accidentally said something to your boss that he or she found EXTREMELY offensive. It could be a "tipping point" for you. The boss may not say anything and your work day goes along just as planned. In fact you have many weeks of work that is totally fine. But in the background your boss is setting up your eventual exit. You are now on the "short list" for the next round of layoffs, for instance.

Fast forward 6 months to the next round of layoffs and mysteriously, despite your solid work, you are let go. Not fired for cause or anything you can take action on...it's solely because "Well the company had to make some cuts for economic reasons and your position was sadly on the block. Nothing about you, per se...just the economic conditions..."

That's a tipping point. YOU set it off without even knowing it and once it happened the was literally nothing you could do to stop it.

Does that make sense?
 
istodolez said:
Here's a question: what if they're right?

Tipping Points don't mean that you will see anything different in your day-to-day activities. We won't notice it at all, likely. It simply means that future actions won't be able to stop the effects.

Let's say you walked into work on Monday and accidentally said something to your boss that he or she found EXTREMELY offensive. It could be a "tipping point" for you. The boss may not say anything and your work day goes along just as planned. In fact you have many weeks of work that is totally fine. But in the background your boss is setting up your eventual exit. You are now on the "short list" for the next round of layoffs, for instance.

Fast forward 6 months to the next round of layoffs and mysteriously, despite your solid work, you are let go. Not fired for cause or anything you can take action on...it's solely because "Well the company had to make some cuts for economic reasons and your position was sadly on the block. Nothing about you, per se...just the economic conditions..."

That's a tipping point. YOU set it off without even knowing it and once it happened the was literally nothing you could do to stop it.

Does that make sense?
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What if they're just engaging in scare tactics?
 
NatMorton said:
What if they're just engaging in scare tactics?
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That's certainly something you can hypothesize. I'm sure that's it. Because otherwise we'd have to believe the scientists and that might harsh our mellow.
 
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