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IBD Shows Trump's Support At New High

I watched an interview with the man that is behind the Trafalgar polling. He says he sees a win again for Trump. He did not go into much about how they do their polling except to say their method produces more accurate results. However he said there is a large number of Trump supporters who will not reveal their support for him because of fear of repercussion whether it would be in their place of employment or in their communities. They don't wear any Trump clothing, no signs in their yard, or bumper stickers on their cars. Yesterday there was a report of people in one community who had Trump signs in their yard receiving nasty letters threatening them. Tonight there is another story of a NBC reporter Darren Beatie using all tools in her possession to dox anonymous Trump supporters on Twitter.
He also stated that increase in support for Trump among Black and Hispanics is real. He said Biden does not have the 80% of blacks he needs to win and that the Hispanic communities is way up especially in Arizona and Florida.

In thirteen days or shortly there after, the poll that counts will be the final one.
There isn't much evidence for stealth Trump supporters. Even in my blue state, they have these Trump pickup truck parades and don't seem to be worried about repercussions.
 
Considering ibd has been rated as one of if not the most accurate pollster for the last 2 decades, it might be like 2016 where the outlier is right and the herd is wrong.
Maybe.

But math and common sense says it’s likely not.
 
There isn't much evidence for stealth Trump supporters. Even in my blue state, they have these Trump pickup truck parades and don't seem to be worried about repercussions.
You must not have paid attention in 2016, I knew people who were threatened with divorce solely for admitting they voted for trump, in parts of the northeast and northwest, admitting you support trump can get you hurt or vandalized.

You must stop and think how many people are worried they will be fired or end up in a divorce over their choice to vote trump, now think how many are in the same position with biden. The strongarm tactics in certain regions of the country likely just forced trump supporters to be less open, rather than force them to vote someone else.
 
You must not have paid attention in 2016, I knew people who were threatened with divorce solely for admitting they voted for trump, in parts of the northeast and northwest, admitting you support trump can get you hurt or vandalized.

You must stop and think how many people are worried they will be fired or end up in a divorce over their choice to vote trump, now think how many are in the same position with biden. The strongarm tactics in certain regions of the country likely just forced trump supporters to be less open, rather than force them to vote someone else.
So, you think that pollsters share their data with employers. Interesting.

Your narrative is also contradictory to your previous post, below. According to you, people are afraid to show their support for Trump to pollsters but not afraid to put Trump signs out in front of their homes.

If you go by just yard signs and bumper stickers where I live, which is mostly austinites now since the fort hood suburbs became austin and waco suburbs, you would think jesus was going to win the election, with trump in second place and biden an extremely distant third.

I remember so many hillary kaine stickers and yard signs in 2016, there is one biden harris yard sign I have seen, plenty of trump signs, and a crapload lately of jesus 2020 yard signs.
 
You must not have paid attention in 2016, I knew people who were threatened with divorce solely for admitting they voted for trump, in parts of the northeast and northwest, admitting you support trump can get you hurt or vandalized.

You must stop and think how many people are worried they will be fired or end up in a divorce over their choice to vote trump, now think how many are in the same position with biden. The strongarm tactics in certain regions of the country likely just forced trump supporters to be less open, rather than force them to vote someone else.

Understandable.

how embarassing to be voting for Trump. It’s like walking around with an ‘I’m Stupid’ sign on your forehead.
 
So, you think that pollsters share their data with employers. Interesting.
No but answering polls over the phone can be public, people can hear them, friends can hear them, coworkers can hear them, family can hear them. Some pollsters do a small portion of their interviews online, but still focus on phone calls.

This was figured out in 2016, where trump did much better with internet polls than he did with phone polls, IE sitting in your room with the door locked answering the poll while your wife thinks you are jacking it to internet porn rather than showing pollsters you support trump.
 
Understandable.

how embarassing to be voting for Trump. It’s like walking around with an ‘I’m Stupid’ sign on your forehead.
You just proved my point, insulting someone for their choice, calling them stupid, whats next decide to fire them because their political choice must be stupid? Your own mentality literally backs up the entire idea, trying to insult or intimidate support against trump will only lead trump supporters to stay silent or pretend they do not support him to maintain a public image.
 
You just proved my point, insulting someone for their choice, calling them stupid, whats next decide to fire them because their political choice must be stupid? Your own mentality literally backs up the entire idea, trying to insult or intimidate support against trump will only lead trump supporters to stay silent or pretend they do not support him to maintain a public image.
I haven’t told any trump supporters in person that they’re stupid.

But clearly they know that it’s true- why else would they be ashamed?
 
538 counts polls conducted by British polling firms. And Survey Monkey.

And what 538 "shows" isn't an average. It's Silver's weighted prediction, based almost entirely on Congressional midterm predictions.
Not so.

The ratings used to weight polls include performance on polls conducted in the final 21 days before every presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial general election (including special elections), as well as every presidential primary, since 1998.

They also factor the pollster’s methodology into the ratings. For example, the first test asks is a polling firm a member of NCPP, a participant in the AAPOR Transparency Initiative, or does it release its raw data to the Roper Center Archive? And second, does the firm regularly call cellphones in addition to landlines? Each firm gets a methodological score between 0 and 2 based on the answers to these questions. They also adjust for the number of polls conducted.

Another complication is herding. The methodologically inferior pollster may be posting superficially good results by manipulating its polls to match those of the stronger polling firms. If left to its own devices — without stronger polls to guide it — it might not do so well.

There’s more to it, you can read about it here:


Bottom line is the polls are averaged based on a formula that was developed and back tested over time to produce the most accurate results. If a factor improved results it’s included, if it makes results worse, it’s excluded.

I wouldn’t worry too much about Survey Monkey, with a D- rating it doesn’t carry much weight. But again, Nate found that including polls with a low rating improved predictive results when they are weighted appropriately vs excluding them all together. I expect that’s even more true in situations like state polls where there are few polls to begin with. It’s part of the reason he has been able to call every state and every senate seat in past elections.
 
Not so.

The ratings used to weight polls include performance on polls conducted in the final 21 days before every presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial general election (including special elections), as well as every presidential primary, since 1998.

They also factor the pollster’s methodology into the ratings. For example, the first test asks is a polling firm a member of NCPP, a participant in the AAPOR Transparency Initiative, or does it release its raw data to the Roper Center Archive? And second, does the firm regularly call cellphones in addition to landlines? Each firm gets a methodological score between 0 and 2 based on the answers to these questions. They also adjust for the number of polls conducted.

Another complication is herding. The methodologically inferior pollster may be posting superficially good results by manipulating its polls to match those of the stronger polling firms. If left to its own devices — without stronger polls to guide it — it might not do so well.

There’s more to it, you can read about it here:


Bottom line is the polls are averaged based on a formula that was developed and back tested over time to produce the most accurate results. If a factor improved results it’s included, if it makes results worse, it’s excluded.

I wouldn’t worry too much about Survey Monkey, with a D- rating it doesn’t carry much weight. But again, Nate found that including polls with a low rating improved predictive results when they are weighted appropriately vs excluding them all together. I expect that’s even more true in situations like state polls where there are few polls to begin with. It’s part of the reason he has been able to call every state and every senate seat in past elections.
All of this is Silver's own methodology for predicting election results. I'm not questioning his sincerity.

However, 538 "averages" are not averages. As you explained in detail, they are not even close to "averages".

In addition, Silver gives extremely high ratings to some pollsters who were horribly off in predicting the Trump/Clinton race, and low ratings to some pollsters who called it nearly spot on.

Silver rates Monmouth as an "A+", and their last Trump/Clinton poll showed Clinton at +6.
Silver rates CNBC as an "A-", and their last Trump/Clinton poll showed Clinton at +10.

Meanwhile, Silver rates Trafalgar as a "C-", and they called the swing states closer than any other polling firm in 2016.
Silver rates Rasmussen as a "C+", and their last Trump/Clinton poll showed Clinton at +1.7.

Other pollsters, such as Quinnipiac, receive a "B+", even though they have no experience polling swing states in presidential elections. And their "B+" rating affects Silver's calculations of Swing State margins.

In short, I don't think Silver's ratings are necessarily helpful in determining which polling firms will be most accurate in this election. In which Trump is a candidate.
 
@ReubenSherr

What is your thoughts on RCP putting Michigan in the Biden column? According to RCP, it's now Biden 232 to Trump 125.
I'm worried about Michigan. Fox has it at Biden +12. And Whitmer will do everything possible to keep Trump from winning there.

I'm hoping Trump can take Wisconsin, and possibly Minnesota.

I think Trump has Ohio solid. And will win Arizona, Florida, and hopefully Pennsylvania.
 
All of this is Silver's own methodology for predicting election results. I'm not questioning his sincerity.

However, 538 "averages" are not averages. As you explained in detail, they are not even close to "averages".

In addition, Silver gives extremely high ratings to some pollsters who were horribly off in predicting the Trump/Clinton race, and low ratings to some pollsters who called it nearly spot on.

Silver rates Monmouth as an "A+", and their last Trump/Clinton poll showed Clinton at +6.
Silver rates CNBC as an "A-", and their last Trump/Clinton poll showed Clinton at +10.

Meanwhile, Silver rates Trafalgar as a "C-", and they called the swing states closer than any other polling firm in 2016.
Silver rates Rasmussen as a "C+", and their last Trump/Clinton poll showed Clinton at +1.7.

Other pollsters, such as Quinnipiac, receive a "B+", even though they have no experience polling swing states in presidential elections. And their "B+" rating affects Silver's calculations of Swing State margins.

In short, I don't think Silver's ratings are necessarily helpful in determining which polling firms will be most accurate in this election. In which Trump is a candidate.
They are weighted averages. The 2016 election is factored into the ratings as well as the 2018 midterms. Nate doesn’t rate on just one election like you seem to want to because using his method that looks at long term pollster performance all the way back to 1998 gives more accurate results over time. There’s really no evidence that Trump being in an election somehow invalidates polls and statistical methods. I guess it’s possible, but unlikely.
 
They are weighted averages. The 2016 election is factored into the ratings as well as the 2018 midterms. Nate doesn’t rate on just one election like you seem to want to because using his method that looks at long term pollster performance all the way back to 1998 gives more accurate results over time. There’s really no evidence that Trump being in an election somehow invalidates polls and statistical methods. I guess it’s possible, but unlikely.
Silver is 100% entitled to his methodology, no doubt. We'll see in two weeks how accurate it is, regarding this presidential election.

But posters stating that Biden is leading by any amount, citing 538, is completely false.

Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar's opinion carries just as much weight as Nate Silver's opinion. Especially given that Cahaly was spot on in calling the Trump/Clinton race, and Silver was not.

 
I'm worried about Michigan. Fox has it at Biden +12. And Whitmer will do everything possible to keep Trump from winning there.

I'm hoping Trump can take Wisconsin, and possibly Minnesota.

I think Trump has Ohio solid. And will win Arizona, Florida, and hopefully Pennsylvania.
You should be worried about Michigan. 538 only gives Trump an 8% chance of winning there. The more Trump attacks Whitmer, the lower his chances get. They have Biden up by 8% there now.

Maybe Michigan doesn’t like the fact that Trump keeps attacking the Governor they elected. Women particularly don’t like it because many think he is more prone to attacking women than men. Obviously, Whitmer had nothing to do with the Fox poll. If it’s correct she doesn’t have to do anything to help Biden.

Are you also worried about all the Republican Governors and legislators that are actually doing everything possible to suppress the vote in their states?
 
You should be worried about Michigan. 538 only gives Trump an 8% chance of winning there. The more Trump attacks Whitmer, the lower his chances get. They have Biden up by 8% there now.

Maybe Michigan doesn’t like the fact that Trump keeps attacking the Governor they elected. Women particularly don’t like it because many think he is more prone to attacking women than men. Obviously, Whitmer had nothing to do with the Fox poll. If it’s correct she doesn’t have to do anything to help Biden.

Are you also worried about all the Republican Governors and legislators that are actually doing everything possible to suppress the vote in their states?
I am very worried about Michigan, I have been for months. Whitmer wants Trump's head on a plate, and I don't get the feeling that she is incapable of shenanigans. And Fox has Biden up 12 there.

I don't know enough about local Michigan politics to evaluate how people there feel about Whitmer. I do know that Democrats purposely like to have female politicians go after Trump, so that, when Trump counters, Democrats can dismiss the criticism as misogyny.

As of right now, I think Trump is on track to win Ohio, Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania by a hair, Wisconsin by a hair, and hopefully Minnesota.
 
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The only thing that can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is if Biden and the Dems decide to let the Republicans off the hook once they steamroll them.
 
Silver is 100% entitled to his methodology, no doubt. We'll see in two weeks how accurate it is, regarding this presidential election.

But posters stating that Biden is leading by any amount, citing 538, is completely false.

Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar's opinion carries just as much weight as Nate Silver's opinion. Especially given that Cahaly was spot on in calling the Trump/Clinton race, and Silver was not.

Nate’s predictions have nothing to do with opinion. They are based on backtested statistical models and Trafalgar’s opinion is factored in.

Posters citing 538 polling averages are citing results of a predictive model that has been proven more accurate over time than any other.

I’ll go with science and math over opinion every time. That’s my opinion.
 
Nate’s predictions have nothing to do with opinion. They are based on backtested statistical models and Trafalgar’s opinion is factored in.

Posters citing 538 polling averages are citing results of a predictive model that has been proven more accurate over time than any other.

I’ll go with science and math over opinion every time. That’s my opinion.
George, Nate Silver doesn't dictate science and math.

These are his personal formulas for predicting election outcomes. He is not Isaac Newton.

We'll see how accurate he is in two weeks.
 
Nate’s predictions have nothing to do with opinion. They are based on backtested statistical models and Trafalgar’s opinion is factored in.

Posters citing 538 polling averages are citing results of a predictive model that has been proven more accurate over time than any other.

I’ll go with science and math over opinion every time. That’s my opinion.
Reuben has nothing left. He has spent weeks here pushing disinfo and BS for so long that anything that doesn't fit into his little bubble he has to try to impugn and create a conspiracy theory around.

Its quite hilarious.
 
I certainly don’t.

I deal with statistics and practical interpretation of stats daily.

When a race has Has been fairly rock steady for months, polls at either extreme are outliers.
???

I think you're using the wrong terminology.

A poll with Biden +2 is not an outlier, if there is another poll showing Biden +3, and another showing Biden +4.

Not that it matters, I see what you're getting at. It's an extreme.
 
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