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IBD Shows Trump's Support At New High

ReubenSherr

ReubenSherr

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Biden Vs. Trump Poll Shows President's Support At New High In Tight Race: IBD/TIPP

Today's Biden vs Trump poll shows a tight race. Support for President Donald Trump hit an IBD/TIPP presidential poll high, just below his 2016 vote share.
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The IBD tracking poll predicted in 2016 that Clinton would win the popular vote by 1 point. She ended up winning by 2.1.

IBD now shows Biden with just a 1.8 point lead over Trump in a two-way race, and a 2.5 point lead in a four-way race.

"Today's Biden vs. Trump poll finds support for President Donald Trump hitting a new high, just a hair below his 2016 vote share. The race against former Vice President Joe Biden appears to have gotten much tighter since the Oct. 12 launch of IBD/TIPP's daily presidential poll. Republican voters have come home, while Democrats have strayed, but Biden retains an edge among independent voters, IBD/TIPP shows.

In a head-to-head Biden vs. Trump poll, the Democratic nominee leads by 1.8 points, 48.7%-46.9%, his smallest lead to date.

Biden's support has slipped 4 points since Oct. 12 in the one-on-one matchup, while Trump's support is up 4.6 points.

The latest Biden vs. Trump poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 2.5 points, 48.5%-46%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters."

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hindsight said:
I thought Trump supporters didn't believe polls. :rolleyes:
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I can't speak for all Trump supporters, but I believe trends in the polls, not necessarily the raw numbers.

In other words, the fact that IBD has Trump's support at a "new high."
 
From your link

"
2016 Voters In 2020 Election

Still, the latest Biden vs. Trump poll continues to highlight what could be a big problem for the president: wayward 2016 Trump voters. Among people who voted for Trump in 2016, 7.5% say they now support Biden while 90% say they'll back him again. Biden does better among Hillary Clinton voters: Just 3% say they support Trump, while 94% back the former vice president.
In addition to faring better among 2016 Trump and Clinton voters, Biden gets more support than Trump among 2016 third-party voters (35%-30%) and nonvoters (59%-31%).
"
 
Thoughts on the new polls from PA, FL and NV?

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BlueTex said:
Thoughts on the new polls from PA, FL and NV?

View attachment 67300613
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CNBC has Pennsylvania at Biden +2. And this is CNBC, which tends to be harsh on Trump.

I wouldn't trust Civiqs, RCP doesn't use them, and I assume there's a reason why. Suffolk is neither here nor there, it's a minor poll of only 500 LV.
 
Are cherries your favorite fruit Reuben?

Both RCP and 538 have Biden with an 8-9% lead in the national polls. IBD has Biden up by 2%. But CNBC, Economist and SurveyUSA have Biden up by 9% and 10%. As I point out in my latest thread, Biden's lead remains relatively the same.
 
ReubenSherr said:
I can't speak for all Trump supporters, but I believe trends in the polls, not necessarily the raw numbers.

In other words, the fact that IBD has Trump's support at a "new high."
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IBD would be an extreme outlier if this is true.

so you don’t believe ‘trends’, you just believe outliers that break the way you like are ‘trends’.

this,grasshopper, is a ‘trend’:

723D7EB1-B2E9-4983-9FB0-07843D56BAA6.png
 
Threegoofs said:
so you don’t believe ‘trends’, you just believe outliers that break the way you like are ‘trends’.
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The USC daily tracker has shown Trump's support ticking up for the past several days as well.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Not in the swing state polling.

FWIW, both the IBD daily tracker and the USC daily tracker have been showing the gap narrowing for the past two days.
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You and I agree there are 12 swing states right?

Nevada
Arizona
Texas
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
Penn
Ohio
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa

Within the last 8 months, Biden has lead in the majority of swing state polls. We have yet to see a strong push toward Trump. It should be concerning to you as a Trump supporter that Iowa and Georgia have gone toward Biden's camp.
 
ReubenSherr said:
The USC daily tracker has shown Trump's support ticking up for the past several days as well.
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That doesn't remotely respond to the posters point. You seem to be focusing on outliner polls and love those cherries.

Does it bother you at all that Trump is losing among independents, senior citizens and suburban women?
 
BrotherFease said:
Within the last 8 months, Biden has lead in the majority of swing state polls. We have yet to see a strong push toward Trump.
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???

Biden's lead in PA has been cut in half in the past week.

Florida, Ohio, and Arizona have been trending slightly towards Trump as well.
 
ReubenSherr said:
???

Biden's lead in PA has been cut in half in the past week.

Florida, Ohio, and Arizona have been trending slightly towards Trump as well.
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The popular vote doesn't matter here. You either win the state or lose the state. Biden continues to lead in 3 out of those 4 states mentioned. The majority of swing states have gone toward Biden, and that's a problem for your camp.

As discussed before, Biden has about 216 votes in the bag, Trump has 125. If Biden continues to lead in most of the swing states, he's well on his way to have more than 300 electors in his court.
 
ReubenSherr said:
The thread title is accurate.

I'm not responding to any more whining about cherry picking.

Deal with it.
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You pick outliner polls to pound your chest with. That's a reality. You get excited over polls showing Biden leading by less than before. As if margin of victory matters here.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Five thirty eight is not an average of polls.

It is Nate Silver's prediction concerning who will win the race, based on his own weighting.
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This isn't true. Silver is both averaging the polls, publishing the averages in each state, and also making predictions based on those averages.
 
W_Heisenberg said:
This isn't true. Silver is both averaging the polls, publishing the averages in each state, and also making predictions based on those averages.
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I'm sure at some point someone will say "But 538 and Nate Silver were wrong in 2016!", and ignore that they actually gave Trump higher probability than most and predicted he had a 1/3 chance to win.
 
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