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Power shifts take some time. Think about how Britain's power changed over the 20th century, for example. The Nazis took several years leading to WWII, as fascist militarism took hold both there and in Japan over years finally exploding.
There are a lot of changes and tensions going on in the world today. In many ways we've had a golden period of relative peace despite some hot spots, so much that we've largely taken 'world peace' for granted. It just worked.
But under the surface, we've had power shifts in numerous areas. The rise of authoritarianism in many places is some of it. China's growth and power flexing just as it becomes hardline totalitarian more than before is another. There's a real analogy between Putin's smoldering fury over the end of the Soviet Union, and Hitler's over the abusive peace terms that ended WWI, both out for revenge to 'make their country great again'. And there's more.
As I recently said, I think China is closely watching Ukraine, planning their takeover of Taiwan. Various countries the US has tensions with are exploring allying, and pursuing things like economic relationships including building financial systems to cut the US and the dollar out and give them more immunity to any sanctions.
After WWII we created the UN to advocate for democracy and to ban aggressive wars; but it's becoming clear that can be challenged. Exploding the danger is the issue of how some of these conflicts are between nuclear powers.
China has been using money to try to gain 'soft power' globally, creating leverage with countries to push them to side with China instead of the west - something that will presumably only increase.
As a result of these changes, we can see more and more challenges to 'the west' - the US and Europe, more and more plots to weaken the west and build alliances against the west globally.
And so we already have Russia claiming it can reclaim its huge empire from before the USSR, and China claiming various lands and the right to do as it likes with them from Taiwan to Hong Kong to the South China Sea - for now.
Post-WWII created a global political culture, with democracy powerful in the world despite adversaries, but those times when economic and military power were distributed one way, seem likely to change as the economics have changed. Who has manufacturing, who has $30 trillion in debt, and so on.
Britain's power shifted, and was challenged and they were diminished. The USSR's power shifted, and was challenged, and they were diminished. Things are quite possibly shifting for the US, tempting challenges by our adversaries, that can lead to changes for the west.
Ukraine might just be the start in numerous shifts and crises globally that could see a lot of change, including the biggest threats to democracy in a long time.
At the height of our global power, JFK pointed out its limitations, saying we do not have the power to be the world's police. Soon after his point was made in Vietnam. We made it again in Iraq and Afghanistan.
We've taken for granted the UN culture of wealthy democracies setting the politics for the world.
As JFK also said:
There are a lot of changes and tensions going on in the world today. In many ways we've had a golden period of relative peace despite some hot spots, so much that we've largely taken 'world peace' for granted. It just worked.
But under the surface, we've had power shifts in numerous areas. The rise of authoritarianism in many places is some of it. China's growth and power flexing just as it becomes hardline totalitarian more than before is another. There's a real analogy between Putin's smoldering fury over the end of the Soviet Union, and Hitler's over the abusive peace terms that ended WWI, both out for revenge to 'make their country great again'. And there's more.
As I recently said, I think China is closely watching Ukraine, planning their takeover of Taiwan. Various countries the US has tensions with are exploring allying, and pursuing things like economic relationships including building financial systems to cut the US and the dollar out and give them more immunity to any sanctions.
After WWII we created the UN to advocate for democracy and to ban aggressive wars; but it's becoming clear that can be challenged. Exploding the danger is the issue of how some of these conflicts are between nuclear powers.
China has been using money to try to gain 'soft power' globally, creating leverage with countries to push them to side with China instead of the west - something that will presumably only increase.
As a result of these changes, we can see more and more challenges to 'the west' - the US and Europe, more and more plots to weaken the west and build alliances against the west globally.
And so we already have Russia claiming it can reclaim its huge empire from before the USSR, and China claiming various lands and the right to do as it likes with them from Taiwan to Hong Kong to the South China Sea - for now.
Post-WWII created a global political culture, with democracy powerful in the world despite adversaries, but those times when economic and military power were distributed one way, seem likely to change as the economics have changed. Who has manufacturing, who has $30 trillion in debt, and so on.
Britain's power shifted, and was challenged and they were diminished. The USSR's power shifted, and was challenged, and they were diminished. Things are quite possibly shifting for the US, tempting challenges by our adversaries, that can lead to changes for the west.
Ukraine might just be the start in numerous shifts and crises globally that could see a lot of change, including the biggest threats to democracy in a long time.
At the height of our global power, JFK pointed out its limitations, saying we do not have the power to be the world's police. Soon after his point was made in Vietnam. We made it again in Iraq and Afghanistan.
We've taken for granted the UN culture of wealthy democracies setting the politics for the world.
As JFK also said:
And our liberty, too, is endangered if we pause for the passing moment, if we rest on our achievements, if we resist the pace of progress. For time and the world do not stand still. Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future.
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