The latest with redistricting
FEB. 23, 2022
Thirty-eight states — most recently
Pennsylvania and
North Carolina — have now finished redrawing their congressional maps (not counting the six states with only one congressional district). And every other state has at least begun the redistricting process.
Although Republicans went into the redistricting cycle with
control over drawing more districts, it is actually Democrats who have gained ground from the process at this point. So far, redistricting has created 12 more Democratic-leaning seats nationally, five fewer Republican-leaning seats and seven fewer highly competitive seats. This is due to
aggressive map-drawing by Democrats in states such as
New York as well as
court decisions overturning
Republican gerrymanders in
Ohio and North Carolina.
After accounting for incumbency, however, Democrats’ gains should be smaller: Democrats will likely flip around three seats in 2022 due to redistricting. In addition, Republicans have helped their own cause by
converting light-red districts into safer seats in states like
Texas.
However, there are still a few unknowns that could change these topline takeaways. For instance, Republicans who control the redistricting process in
Florida are divided over how far to press their advantage. A bipartisan map has already passed the state Senate, but Gov. Ron DeSantis has proposed an alternative that would give Republicans more seats. Another big wild card is how the Ohio Redistricting Commission redraws the Buckeye State’s map.
An updating tracker of proposed congressional maps — and whether they might benefit Democrats or Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections and beyond
projects.fivethirtyeight.com