I’m a former Moscow correspondent. Don’t let Vladimir Putin fool you: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is only about one thing.

[Rogue Valley]

I’m a former Moscow correspondent. Don’t let Vladimir Putin fool you: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is only about one thing.

2.24.22
If you walk the streets of Moscow, you will eventually smell the faint odor of gasoline. It’s as ever-present in the air around Russia’s capital as it is central to the country’s economy, infrastructure and geopolitical posture. Russian President Vladimir Putin has spelled out a nationalist rationale for his country’s military incursion into Ukraine, but it is primarily about protecting Moscow’s energy interests. To understand the Kremlin’s motivations in regard to its smaller, and relatively impoverished, neighbor, the key fact to know is that Russia supplies 40% of Europe’s heating-fuel supplies — namely, natural gas. To get it there, Russia relies mostly on two aging pipeline networks, one of which runs through Belarus and the other through Ukraine. For this, Russia pays Ukraine around $2 billion a year in transit fees. Russia is a petrostate and relies on oil and natural-gas sales for about 60% of its export revenue and 40% of its total budget expenditures. Any crimp on Russia’s ability to access the European market is a threat to its economic security. In my three years covering Russia, I watched as the country slowly withdrew into itself after Putin returned to office for what was then his third term as president.Gone were prior efforts to intertwine Russia’s economy and the global system and encourage foreign investment.

Domestically, Putin has sold the invasion of Ukraine on purely nationalistic grounds — even going so far this weekend as to dismiss Ukraine’s history as an independent country as a falsehood. While Ukrainians and Russians share religions and ethnicities, they speak different, albeit similar, languages, even as there are pockets of native Russian speakers in some Ukrainian regions, as there are in other former Soviet republics. And while Russians have seen their quality of life improve awash in petro-rubles in the decades under Putin’s rule, Ukrainians have been mired in poverty and bogged down by misrule. While it is no wonder many Ukrainians yearn to be unmoored from their bigger, imperialist neighbor, for Putin and his cohort of oligarchs Ukrainian self-determination is not really on the table. Not when it puts at risk the flow of money that has kept them in power.

I respecfully disagree on energy transit being the main reason Putin is invading Ukraine. Although there is a gas transit deal in place that runs from 2020-2024 and pays Ukraine ~7.2 billion, Russia's Nordstream-2 pipeline is already connected to Germany and only awaited German certification to begin operations (at most another two months). The entire purpose of NS-2 was to loop around Ukraine so it could be avoided altogether after the current gas transit contract expires in 2024. With Putin's invasion of Ukraine however, the German government has now said NS-2 will not come online. Perhaps never. If I was in Ukraine, I might make a it a point to destroy as much of the gas transit infrastructure as possible, severely putting a crimp in Russia's future gas profits.

Th greater truth is that Russia is a petro-state ruled by something akin to a mafia family (the oligarchs and the siloviki). Only a decade earlier Ukrainians had looked across the border at neighboring Poland and were amazed at the progress they saw since their neighbor had joined the European Union and NATO aliance. Ukrainians from the far west of the country could actually cross the border in the morning, work in Poland, and then return at night to their homes in Ukraine. The pay was much better. Poland was much better. Free and well-off comparatively speaking. In 2013 when former president Viktor Yanukovych broke a campaign promise to apply for European Union membership, that was the final straw and it birthed the Euromaidan revolution. Putin is terrified that the Russian people will begin looking across the border and see a neighbor with free and fair elections, a neighbor combatting corruption, and a neighbor with increasing ties to the EU and NATO. In the minds of Putin and his criminal cabal, such a Ukraine would be an existential threat, not to Russia per se, but to the criminal mafia that rules Russia. A Euromaidan revolution across Russia would be the undoing of the Putin dictatorship. This is the main reason why Putin ordered the Russian military over the Ukraine border ... self-preservation. The Russian people must not even get a whiff of true democracy and freedom.

 

[Jkca1]

I’m a former Moscow correspondent. Don’t let Vladimir Putin fool you: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is only about one thing.




I respecfully disagree on energy transit being the main reason Putin is invading Ukraine. Although there is a gas transit deal in place that runs from 2020-2024 and pays Ukraine ~7.2 billion, Russia's Nordstream-2 pipeline is already connected to Germany and only awaited German certification to begin operations (at most another two months). The entire purpose of NS-2 was to loop around Ukraine so it could be avoided altogether after the current gas transit contract expires in 2024. With Putin's invasion of Ukraine however, the German government has now said NS-2 will not come online. Perhaps never. If I was in Ukraine, I might make a it a point to destroy as much of the gas transit infrastructure as possible, severely putting a crimp in Russia's future gas profits.

Th greater truth is that Russia is a petro-state ruled by something akin to a mafia family (the oligarchs and the siloviki). Only a decade earlier Ukrainians had looked across the border at neighboring Poland and were amazed at the progress they saw since their neighbor had joined the European Union and NATO aliance. Ukrainians from the far west of the country could actually cross the border in the morning, work in Poland, and then return at night to their homes in Ukraine. The pay was much better. Poland was much better. Free and well-off comparatively speaking. In 2013 when former president Viktor Yanukovych broke a campaign promise to apply for European Union membership, that was the final straw and it birthed the Euromaidan revolution. Putin is terrified that the Russian people will begin looking across the border and see a neighbor with free and fair elections, a neighbor combatting corruption, and a neighbor with increasing ties to the EU and NATO. In the minds of Putin and his criminal cabal, such a Ukraine would be an existential threat, not to Russia per se, but to the criminal mafia that rules Russia. A Euromaidan revolution across Russia would be the undoing of the Putin dictatorship. This is the main reason why Putin ordered the Russian military over the Ukraine border ... self-preservation. The Russian people must not even get a whiff of true democracy and freedom.

I enjoyed you analysis. I want to add that even before Putin grabbed power "Russia has long expressed warnings that NATO’s expansionism could trigger war;

"Since the beginning of NATO expansion in the mid-'90s, when Russia had a very different government under Boris Yeltsin, the Russian government, and Russian commentators and officials, opposed NATO enlargement but also warned that if this went as far as taking in Georgia and Ukraine, then there would be confrontation and strong likelihood of war. They said that explicitly over and over again. So this is not about Putin." https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc...ing-ukraine-why-putin-pulled-trigger-n1288828

 

[bluesmoke]

Invading Ukraine is not good business. The oligarchs that support Putin are all about business. They don't care about Russian domination of prior Russian territory unless it benefits them. Putin is nailing his own coffin. Nothing personal, political or societal. It's only business.

 

[Exquisitor]

I’m a former Moscow correspondent. Don’t let Vladimir Putin fool you: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is only about one thing.

I respecfully disagree on energy transit being the main reason Putin is invading Ukraine. Although there is a gas transit deal in place that runs from 2020-2024 and pays Ukraine ~7.2 billion, Russia's Nordstream-2 pipeline is already connected to Germany and only awaited German certification to begin operations (at most another two months). The entire purpose of NS-2 was to loop around Ukraine so it could be avoided altogether after the current gas transit contract expires in 2024. With Putin's invasion of Ukraine however, the German government has now said NS-2 will not come online. Perhaps never. If I was in Ukraine, I might make a it a point to destroy as much of the gas transit infrastructure as possible, severely putting a crimp in Russia's future gas profits.

Th greater truth is that Russia is a petro-state ruled by something akin to a mafia family (the oligarchs and the siloviki). Only a decade earlier Ukrainians had looked across the border at neighboring Poland and were amazed at the progress they saw since their neighbor had joined the European Union and NATO aliance. Ukrainians from the far west of the country could actually cross the border in the morning, work in Poland, and then return at night to their homes in Ukraine. The pay was much better. Poland was much better. Free and well-off comparatively speaking. In 2013 when former president Viktor Yanukovych broke a campaign promise to apply for European Union membership, that was the final straw and it birthed the Euromaidan revolution. Putin is terrified that the Russian people will begin looking across the border and see a neighbor with free and fair elections, a neighbor combatting corruption, and a neighbor with increasing ties to the EU and NATO. In the minds of Putin and his criminal cabal, such a Ukraine would be an existential threat, not to Russia per se, but to the criminal mafia that rules Russia. A Euromaidan revolution across Russia would be the undoing of the Putin dictatorship. This is the main reason why Putin ordered the Russian military over the Ukraine border ... self-preservation. The Russian people must not even get a whiff of true democracy and freedom.

We must not listen to Putin when he says genocide.

Putin and his thugs can't have Democracy and Freedom next door?

Sanction the ****er belly up.

 

[Manc Skipper]

Speaking of the 1990's, NATO was built to counter Soviet power. The USSR collapsed back then. Why is NATO still a thing? Apropos of nothing in particular.

 

[Monica33]

OP QUOTE.
Putin is terrified that the Russian people will begin looking across the border and see a neighbor with free and fair elections, a neighbor combatting corruption, and a neighbor with increasing ties to the EU and NATO. In the minds of Putin and his criminal cabal, such a Ukraine would be an existential threat, not to Russia per se, but to the criminal mafia that rules Russia. A Euromaidan revolution across Russia would be the undoing of the Putin dictatorship. This is the main reason why Putin ordered the Russian military over the Ukraine border ... self-preservation. The Russian people must not even get a whiff of true democracy and freedom.


That is propaganda that is so quaint and dated that it is embarrassing to read .
Include it as a Fake News tactic if that is your mission in life , but I hope you do not believe garbage like that .
That would actually be sad .

 

[bluesmoke]

We must not listen to Putin when he says genocide.

Putin and his thugs can't have Democracy and Freedom next door?

Sanction the ****er belly up.

Belly-up sanctioning is something that should have started long ago. Maybe Obama couldn't get enough support from the world back when Russia invaded and took control of Ukraine's Crimea. Or when Putin slapped Georgia around. Or when Hitler did what he did. That these idiots can't understand history repeating itself is beyond the beyond. They let Putin get away with so much, Europe and the US allowed Putin to put everything in motion with no obstruction of any consequence to Putin.

 

[justabubba]

Belly-up sanctioning is something that should have started long ago. Maybe Obama couldn't get enough support from the world back when Russia invaded and took control of Ukraine's Crimea. Or when Putin slapped Georgia around. Or when Hitler did what he did. That these idiots can't understand history repeating itself is beyond the beyond. They let Putin get away with so much, Europe and the US allowed Putin to put everything in motion with no obstruction of any consequence to Putin.

With the benefit of hindsight, tell us exactly what should’ve been done instead

 

[Rogue Valley]

With the benefit of hindsight, tell us exactly what should’ve been done instead

Seeing who Putin really was (one needed only to see how he came to power), Europe/NATO should have taken the Putin regime far more seriously. The troubling signs were all there, Russia modernizing its military, Georgia, Crimea, Russia building up its hard currency reserves, his assassinations on foreign soil, the historical revisionisms of Putin, and his increasingly bellicose statements/demands. The Europeans ignored all of this (and also their increasing energy dependence on Moscow) and four years of Trrump almost destroyed NATO.

And here we are.

 

[Exquisitor]

Belly-up sanctioning is something that should have started long ago. Maybe Obama couldn't get enough support from the world back when Russia invaded and took control of Ukraine's Crimea. Or when Putin slapped Georgia around. Or when Hitler did what he did. That these idiots can't understand history repeating itself is beyond the beyond. They let Putin get away with so much, Europe and the US allowed Putin to put everything in motion with no obstruction of any consequence to Putin.

Well at this point, people know that Russia has been up to nothing but oppression and bloodshed, and that Putin is only trying to preserve his culture of oppression and checkbook.

 

[justabubba]

Seeing who Putin really was (one needed only to see how he came to power), Europe/NATO should have taken the Putin regime far more seriously.

and done what, specifically, in response?

The troubling signs were all there, Russia modernizing its military, Georgia, Crimea, Russia building up its hard currency reserves, his assassinations on foreign soil, the historical revisionisms of Putin, and his increasingly bellicose statements/demands. The Europeans ignored all of this (and also their increasing energy dependence on Moscow) and four years of Trrump almost destroyed NATO.

And here we are.

maybe i am slow, but i have not seen anyone identify the actions the NATO partners should have taken other than the ones that were taken: increasing/defining the contribution of each NATO partner and remaining vigilant to the compact to defend a threat to any other NATO partner
so, let me ask again, what specific actions shoud the NATO members have taken that they did not?

 

[Gladiator]

Fox News reported on 2/28/22, that Putin has recently threatened to retaliate against any country that provides lethal weapons to Ukraine.

//

 

[bluesmoke]

With the benefit of hindsight, tell us exactly what should’ve been done instead

What we should have been done is what we're doing now. It doesn't require hindsight to see that, when it started to happen under Putin, we already had the previous hindsight of Hitler in Europe, and that Putin was repeating it. Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, though it lasted only for some number of days. It gave Putin a template of using separatists, et al, breaking all agreements and lying to justify invasion. Putin did the same thing when invading Ukraine/Crimea in 2014 and is using the same template invading the whole of Ukraine now. One doesn't need great vision to see that.

 

[bluesmoke]

Well at this point, people know that Russia has been up to nothing but oppression and bloodshed, and that Putin is only trying to preserve his culture of oppression and checkbook.

What a surprise from a Russian dictator.

 

[justabubba]

What we should have been done is what we're doing now. It doesn't require hindsight to see that, when it started to happen under Putin, we already had the previous hindsight of Hitler in Europe, and that Putin was repeating it. Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, though it lasted only for some number of days. It gave Putin a template of using separatists, et al, breaking all agreements and lying to justify invasion. Putin did the same thing when invading Ukraine/Crimea in 2014 and is using the same template invading the whole of Ukraine now. One doesn't need great vision to see that.

ok, i'll play along
what is it that we are doing now that we should have known to do before?

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

I respecfully disagree on energy transit being the main reason Putin is invading Ukraine.

All good, well thought out and well said, however I urge you to consider the notion that there isn't just ONE MAIN reason at all, it's a basket of reasons, and all of them hang together.
That's all, it's not an either/or, or a zero sum game, it's just a BUNCH of important reasons and your reasons as you explained them are as important as the reasons set forth by the author Lukas I. Alpert.

 

[bluesmoke]

ok, i'll play along
what is it that we are doing now that we should have known to do before?

The major sanctions against Russia, incl against the oligarchs, should have been started after Russia took Crimea. Sending more armament and supplies to Ukraine when it became obvious Putin was going to invade, though we could have started a trickle soon after the Russian annexation of Crimea. Now, we're scrambling like the Keystone Cops because we didn't get them the arms, and supplies, they needed sooner. What I don't know is if there was enough Euro and world backing to make that happen. This isn't "hindsight". This is recognizing the continuance of an established pattern that reflects history repeating itself. You're the one that is "playing along", not me. If you still can't see the obvious or are not interested in a respective debate of the points I've made, you don't have to "play along" any longer.

 

[choiceone]

Seeing who Putin really was (one needed only to see how he came to power), Europe/NATO should have taken the Putin regime far more seriously. The troubling signs were all there, Russia modernizing its military, Georgia, Crimea, Russia building up its hard currency reserves, his assassinations on foreign soil, the historical revisionisms of Putin, and his increasingly bellicose statements/demands. The Europeans ignored all of this (and also their increasing energy dependence on Moscow) and four years of Trrump almost destroyed NATO.

And here we are.

If you're really a former Moscow correspondent, I have a request.

I've been trying to find out when Putin was last seen alive - in an interview, making a statement, anything. I can't find out.

Why do we believe he is alive? Maybe he's not. If he is, he should be asked: Are you alive?

Russian soldiers are shooting Ukrainians, Ukrainians are shooting Russian soldiers. From what I've read, neither group actually likes what they're doing. If they're doing it all on account of Putin, where is he?

You would expect that, in the middle of all this activity, he would bother to make a live statement once or twice a day. Why should they continue if he's not even alive?

If I knew some news people, I'd contact them and say they should be asking this question. Everybody should start asking - on the news stations, in the newspapers, all over the web. Putin, are you alive or not? They should be double-daring him to prove he's alive. Otherwise, maybe everybody should just stop.

 

[Rogue Valley]

If you're really a former Moscow correspondent, I have a request.

I was never a "Moscow correspondant" whatever that is.

I have lived in Ukraine and I visited Russia on three occasions.

The author of the Post #1 article is/was a Moscow correspondant.

 

[Antiwar]

... a whiff of true democracy and freedom.

Interesting.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Interesting.

Elections in Russia are highly rigged.

 

[Antiwar]

Elections in Russia are highly rigged.

Sure, but the USG isn't an example of "true democracy and freedom" and has a horrible 'foreign policy' record along those lines.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Sure, but the USG isn't an example of "true democracy and freedom" and has a horrible 'foreign policy' record along those lines.

This thread is about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, not the USG.

 

[justabubba]

The major sanctions against Russia, incl against the oligarchs, should have been started after Russia took Crimea.

was the claim of self determination a valid one of the people of crimea? let's look at poll results after the annexation by russia:

A comprehensive poll released on 8 May 2014 by the Pew Research Centre surveyed local opinions on the annexation.[294] Despite international criticism of 16 March referendum on Crimean status, 91% of those Crimeans polled thought that the vote was free and fair, and 88% said that the Ukrainian government should recognise the results.[294]

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Sending more armament and supplies to Ukraine when it became obvious Putin was going to invade, though we could have started a trickle soon after the Russian annexation of Crimea.

exactly when was it obvious putin was going to invade?

Now, we're scrambling like the Keystone Cops because we didn't get them the arms, and supplies, they needed sooner. What I don't know is if there was enough Euro and world backing to make that happen. This isn't "hindsight".

it absolutely IS hindsight
but prove me wrong and show me the threads you began, asserting that we were wrong to delay the supply line to ukraine

This is recognizing the continuance of an established pattern that reflects history repeating itself. You're the one that is "playing along", not me. If you still can't see the obvious or are not interested in a respective debate of the points I've made, you don't have to "play along" any longer.

you are so prescient about the failed actions in world affairs, tell us where the next hot spot is going to be and what actions should be undertaken NOW in that location - and why
i so look forward to such a forward looking reply where you are without the facts and cannot engage in monday morning quarterbacking

 

[snakestretcher]

ok, i'll play along
what is it that we are doing now that we should have known to do before?

As far as Europe is concerned? Secured energy supplies which were not dependent on cheap Russian exports. We're facing huge hikes in domestic energy costs; 50% next month with further increases anticipated later in the year. This will leave many elderly, poor and vulnerable people with a stark choice; heat or eat.

Average UK energy bills could hit £3,000 a year, consumers warned

Petrol and diesel also set to rise after Russian invasion of Ukraine sends wholesale gas and oil prices soaring

www.theguardian.com