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Hurricane watch for Mexico, US as Alex strengthens

danarhea

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VILLAHERMOSA, Mexico — Hurricane watches were in effect Monday for a stretch of Gulf coast in southern Texas and northern Mexico as Tropical Storm Alex gained strength and appeared on track to become a Category 3 hurricane before it makes landfall later this week.


Forecasters said the storm's path could push oil from the massive Gulf oil spill farther inland.
I am now watching this storm very closely. 4 of the models take it up to the Houston-Galveston area, although the more reliable models have it hitting Brownsville directly. The huge question mark, which is the determining factor on which way the storm goes, it a low pressure area that is tracking across Texas at the moment, drawing the storm north towards us. If it moves fast enough, it gets out of the way, and the storm strikes well south of us. If it doesn't, I may end up enjoying my third hurricane party, after Alicia (in 1983) and Ike (just a couple of years ago).

Anyways, the National Weather Service is now saying that, if the storm hits Brownsville, it will most likely go in as a Cat 1 or 2. However, if it comes our way, it will most likely be a 3. Ike was only a 2, but it was very large. Alex isn't so big, so the damage here would most likely be a lot less than from Ike.

One additional problem - The further north from Brownsville Alex goes, the greater likelihood that all that oil in the Gulf will get stirred up, which is both good and bad. Oil will be dissipated better, but also would be pushed further inland, creating a possible nightmare scenario for the Gulf Coast. And Alex is only the first storm of a predicted busy hurricane season. My prayers are that all the storms this year stay out of the Gulf. I hope that is not too much to ask for.

At any rate, I will keep posting on this storm until it has passed. My prediction? I'll go with the majority of the models and call the hit on Brownsville, and I hope that people there, and in the Rio Grande Valley, will be OK.

Article is here.
 
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liblady

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I am now watching this storm very closely. 4 of the models take it up to the Houston-Galveston area, although the more reliable models have it hitting Brownsville directly. The huge question mark, which is the determining factor on which way the storm goes, it a low pressure area that is tracking across Texas at the moment, drawing the storm north towards us. If it moves fast enough, it gets out of the way, and the storm strikes well south of us. If it doesn't, I may end up enjoying my third hurricane party, after Alicia (in 1983) and Ike (just a couple of years ago).

Anyways, the National Weather Service is now saying that, if the storm hits Brownsville, it will most likely go in as a Cat 1 or 2. However, if it comes our way, it will most likely be a 3. Ike was only a 2, but it was very large. Alex isn't so big, so the damage here would most likely be a lot less than from Ike.

One additional problem - The further north from Brownsville Alex goes, the greater likelihood that all that oil in the Gulf will get stirred up, which is both good and bad. Oil will be dissipated better, but also would be pushed further inland, creating a possible nightmare scenario for the Gulf Coast. And Alex is only the first storm of a predicted busy hurricane season. My prayers are that all the storms this year stay out of the Gulf. I hope that is not too much to ask for.

At any rate, I will keep posting on this storm until it has passed. My prediction? I'll go with the majority of the models and call the hit on Brownsville, and I hope that people there, and in the Rio Grande Valley, will be OK.

Tropical Storm ALEX


looks like noaa has it set.
 

danarhea

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Actually, they don't. Yesterday, they had it coming ashore in Tampico, Mexico, but have been tracking it further north with every report. The prediction cone is only valid at the time it is set. If the track moves to the right, within that cone, then the cone is set further to the right when the next report is made. Next report is at 4PM CDT today.

By 10PM tonight is when we will have the best idea on which track the storm is going to take. By then, the NWS will have a better handle on the low pressure system that is moving across Texas, and acting like a magnet to pull Alex north. This low pressure system is the major determining factor on where Alex will eventually come ashore. If it moves fast enough, then Brownsville will be the target. If not, then the target will be somewhere north of there (Hopefully not too far north - LOL).
 
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danarhea

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The 4PM report is now out (about 15 minutes early). Good news for Houston-Galveston. They moved the track and the cone slightly south. Bad news for Brownsville. They are most likely going to get the dirty side. Right now, waiting for 10 PM. That report will pretty much cement the cone and tracking data at the point of predicted landfall. Houston-Galveston, at any rate, will get nothing more than some rain, which rice farmers will love. LOL.

If the present positioning holds up, looks like Brownsville will be spared the worst of the storm surge, although they are not quite out of the woods yet. Will find out at 10PM.
 
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I'm looking forward to a week of rain, which is supposed to start any minute now and last through Saturday.
I do feel sorry for y'all down on the coast, though.
You guys have taken a lot of hits, the past few years.
 

danarhea

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Looks like its official now. Brownsville gets the storm. Houston and Galveston get some nice rain out of it.
 

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Looks like its official now. Brownsville gets the storm. Houston and Galveston get some nice rain out of it.
We had thunder yesterday in the late afternoon, but still no rain. Hmmph! :?
We were even under a flash flood watch last night, but the rain never came.
Just this awful, overcast humidity.
 

danarhea

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We had thunder yesterday in the late afternoon, but still no rain. Hmmph! :?
We were even under a flash flood watch last night, but the rain never came.
Just this awful, overcast humidity.
Looking at my weather service feed at work right now. No rain near you right now, but that is going to change shortly. Got a rain band coming into Houston right now, which means it should be in Austin later today. I think your drought is about to be over. Enjoy. :2wave:
 
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danarhea

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They moved the cone south yet again. The cone is now entirely south of the border, which means Brownsville will get no worse than tropical storm winds. Depending on where you are in Southeast and Central Texas, though, you are going to get between 5 and 15 inches of rain. Sucks to be in Northeastern Mexico, but it's great to be in Texas. The drought is officially over for the area west of Houston that has been hit pretty hard by it.
 

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We got massive rain today; now it's just drizzlin'.
 
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