Hurricane season, 2020.

[Torus34]

For the first time that I can remember, the National Hurricane Center map* of the North Atlantic shows 7 storms. The band from 5 to 15 degrees north latitude continues to spawn storm after storm near the western African coast. These then move westward, sometimes intensifying into hurricanes that impact the US coast.

As we, h. sapiens, continue to add energy to the atmosphere and, consequently, warm the surface of the earth, such storms can be expected to increase in number and intensity.

Thus far in the political brouhaha surrounding the upcoming presidential election, global warming -- climate change -- has not been a topic of much interest. It's been overshadowed by such earthshaking concerns as who used a teleprompter.

Curiously, hurricanes have a positive effect on the index abbreviated as GDP -- gross domestic product . The rebuilding of structures damaged by hurricanes adds to the GDP. To the extent that it measures replacement, it doesn't represent much gain in real goods.

And so it goes.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

* National Hurricane Center

 

[Jack Hays]

Global Tropical Cyclone Activity | Ryan Maue

climatlas.com › tropical

by SS File - ‎Related articles
In contrast to record quiet North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2010, the North Atlantic basin remained very active by contributing almost one-third of the overall calendar year global ACE. ... The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+).

Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL.

 

[Jack Hays]

The Number Of Typhoons Formed Has Been Trending Down Modestly Since 1951
Posted on September 23, 2020 by Kirye
Hi, everyone.
Today, I’d like to show you the data for typhoons.
Japanese climate alarmists said that the number of typhoons has increased as the years rolled on.
However, in fact, the number of typhoons formed has been trending down modestly since 1951, and this July was the first July to have seen no typhoons formed at all.
During August seven typhoons formed, which was not particularly unusual.

▲ Data Source

 

[longview]

It was a busy year, for Tropical weather events, In Houston, it looks like the rain for Beta has passed.
I ended up with about 11 inches of rain for the 48 hour event, but again Houston has a really good flood control system.
The only real issue was that people insist on driving in the emergency flood control channels,(Roads).
The news people say "Turn Around, don't drown!" quite a bit, Here it can be life saving advice!

 

[Jack Hays]

It was a busy year, for Tropical weather events, In Houston, it looks like the rain for Beta has passed.
I ended up with about 11 inches of rain for the 48 hour event, but again Houston has a really good flood control system.
The only real issue was that people insist on driving in the emergency flood control channels,(Roads).
The news people say "Turn Around, don't drown!" quite a bit, Here it can be life saving advice!

Busy but not generally severe, so far.

 

[Jack Hays]

The "record season" is not really a thing.

No, 2020 Was Likely Not a Record Hurricane Season
HURRICANES NOVEMBER 13, 2020

". . . In a recent From the Stacks podcast, Dr. Neil Frank, who served as director of the United States National Hurricane Center longer than anyone before or since, said the criteria for declaring a weather front a name tropical storm has loosened in recent years. Frank says under the old system, many of the named storms in 2020, particularly tropical storms of short duration, would not have been given names.

In fact, the way storms were discovered, monitored, tracked, and whether they were named, has changed a great deal over the past 50 years, with records from the first half of the 20th century and before being understandably incomplete. Research indicates many storms that would now be counted as “tropical storms” and thus named, were not even known to have existed because they were of short duration at sea, with no ships having encountered them. Before the advent of weather radar, satellites, and storm-tracking airplanes, storms at sea were discovered and named only if a ship encountered and reported them. . . . "

 

[longview]

The "record season" is not really a thing.

No, 2020 Was Likely Not a Record Hurricane Season
HURRICANES NOVEMBER 13, 2020

". . . In a recent From the Stacks podcast, Dr. Neil Frank, who served as director of the United States National Hurricane Center longer than anyone before or since, said the criteria for declaring a weather front a name tropical storm has loosened in recent years. Frank says under the old system, many of the named storms in 2020, particularly tropical storms of short duration, would not have been given names.

In fact, the way storms were discovered, monitored, tracked, and whether they were named, has changed a great deal over the past 50 years, with records from the first half of the 20th century and before being understandably incomplete. Research indicates many storms that would now be counted as “tropical storms” and thus named, were not even known to have existed because they were of short duration at sea, with no ships having encountered them. Before the advent of weather radar, satellites, and storm-tracking airplanes, storms at sea were discovered and named only if a ship encountered and reported them. . . . "

Good point! if our criteria to name a storm has changed, the the actual count of named storms is rather meaningless.

 

[Jack Hays]

More shoddy alarmist "science."

Slower decay of landfalling Hurricanes in a warmer world — really?
Posted on November 17, 2020 by curryja | 28 comments
by Frank Bosse
A recent paper published in “Nature” made some excitement in the media, see here or here.
Continue reading →

". . . The SST impact on the decay time is negligible, other influences accounting for almost all variability in the decay time.

The peer review process of “Nature” for L&C 2020 lasted more than 8 months, it makes wonder if there was no reviewer with some fundamental skills in statistics involved.

However, this must be the case unfortunately: In the “methods-statistical significance” section the authors mention a test for autocorrelation and there is written: “(which we test using the Dublin–Watson test)”. This must be a typo, the name of the test is “Durbin– Watson”.

One should hope that the peer review process of “Nature” would be improved soon to avoid overconfident, obviously flawed papers like L&C 2020."

 

[Jack Hays]

More hype than anything else this year.

hurricanes
HURRICANE SEASON 2020 UPDATE (11/29/2020)
The 2020 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin is the most active in history with 30 named storms, breaking the previous record set in 2005 (which had 28). 6 storms were major storms including Iota, setting a record for the latest Major hurricane.

 

[Jack Hays]

How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season?
But the raw data for hurricane history is contaminated by changes in observing tools, in our understanding, and in the philosophy of whether a storm should be named. What explains the increase in named storms? Was it an abnormal meteorological event, or are there other explanations? To answer this requires some discussion of the origin of Atlantic storms.
Continue reading →