• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Hundreds of millions more getting cars

S

Simpletruther

DP Veteran
Joined
May 18, 2019
Messages
16,302
Reaction score
3,201
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
China and othe places have people with rising incomes and getting close to the ability to own cars.

www.statista.com

China: number of privately-owned vehicles 2022 | Statista

In 2022, there were almost 278 million privately-owned motor vehicles registered in China, representing an increase of more than 16 million from the previous year.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

I just do not see how we avoid continued oil Consumption at full throttle.

EV will offset this some, but it will mean more coal fired electricity in the short run.


It seems pretty much inevitable.

How many more decades do fellow sceptics think the doomsayers will stay at it, till the cult fades away?

Let's say. 30 years from now, it's been been business as usual, the world has gotten even little warmer as predicted, and the world is just going on as normal.

Will the cult still by preaching doomsday?

What about say 60 years? Or a hundred?
 
Why do you assume that rising income will lead to more internal combustion vehicles?
 
Yep, having more people with more money will increase consumption.
 
BirdinHand said:
They also have a mandate that by 2030, car manufacturers must have 40% of their sales be EV.
Click to expand...

Settiing a goal isn’t the same as having a mandate.

China has set a goal of having 40 percent of the vehicles sold in the country be EVs by 2030, which means a lot more vehicles will need to be charged. By 2025, the government aims to have in place charging infrastructure to meet the needs of more than 20 million cars.
Click to expand...

www.wired.com

China Is Racing to Electrify Its Future

The country wants electric vehicles to make up 40 percent of new cars sold by 2030—but first it has to figure out how to keep them charged.
www.wired.com www.wired.com
 
 
Simpletruther said:
China and othe places have people with rising incomes and getting close to the ability to own cars.

www.statista.com

China: number of privately-owned vehicles 2022 | Statista

In 2022, there were almost 278 million privately-owned motor vehicles registered in China, representing an increase of more than 16 million from the previous year.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

I just do not see how we avoid continued oil Consumption at full throttle.

EV will offset this some, but it will mean more coal fired electricity in the short run.


It seems pretty much inevitable.

How many more decades do fellow sceptics think the doomsayers will stay at it, till the cult fades away?

Let's say. 30 years from now, it's been been business as usual, the world has gotten even little warmer as predicted, and the world is just going on as normal.

Will the cult still by preaching doomsday?

What about say 60 years? Or a hundred?
Click to expand...
Note

China sells more personal vehicles per year than the US, EVs make up a large and growing portipn of those sales
 
Not good ... at all.

And Africa is seeing a population explosion until 2100 with their young population base.

So, China and India's middle class will be responsible for the 2020-2100 increase in car use and carbon emissions, while Africa and its middle class will increase pollution even further in the 2100s with a vastly expanded consumer base.

But by then, the world is already a Marsian-style deserted dusty wasteland ...
 
Simpletruther said:
China and othe places have people with rising incomes and getting close to the ability to own cars.

www.statista.com

China: number of privately-owned vehicles 2022 | Statista

In 2022, there were almost 278 million privately-owned motor vehicles registered in China, representing an increase of more than 16 million from the previous year.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

I just do not see how we avoid continued oil Consumption at full throttle.

EV will offset this some, but it will mean more coal fired electricity in the short run.


It seems pretty much inevitable.

How many more decades do fellow sceptics think the doomsayers will stay at it, till the cult fades away?

Let's say. 30 years from now, it's been been business as usual, the world has gotten even little warmer as predicted, and the world is just going on as normal.

Will the cult still by preaching doomsday?

What about say 60 years? Or a hundred?
Click to expand...
China leads the world in ev tech and infrastructure.
 
And? (What are we really talking about here, or are climate warriors gunning up to throw soup on Chinese paintings?)
 
Simpletruther said:
. . . Let's say. 30 years from now, it's been been business as usual, the world has gotten even little warmer as predicted, and the world is just going on as normal.

Will the cult still by preaching doomsday?

What about say 60 years? Or a hundred?
Click to expand...
The world won't stop consuming oil for a very long time. Ships need fuel oil to power massive turbines. Freight trains need oil to power massive diesel engines, Jets need jet fuel, turbo-prop and rotary-wing (helicopter) aircraft need oil. Long-distance trucking relies on oil.

Battery technology has not progressed to the point where Ships, trains, planes and long-haul trucking can switch to electric power.

So, until some breakthrough technology comes along, we must rely mostly on oil for Transportation, so that could take a while - my guess is over 30 years . . . so we should expect warmer temperatures.
 
Simpletruther said:
China and othe places have people with rising incomes and getting close to the ability to own cars.

www.statista.com

China: number of privately-owned vehicles 2022 | Statista

In 2022, there were almost 278 million privately-owned motor vehicles registered in China, representing an increase of more than 16 million from the previous year.
www.statista.com www.statista.com

I just do not see how we avoid continued oil Consumption at full throttle.

EV will offset this some, but it will mean more coal fired electricity in the short run.


It seems pretty much inevitable.

How many more decades do fellow sceptics think the doomsayers will stay at it, till the cult fades away?

Let's say. 30 years from now, it's been been business as usual, the world has gotten even little warmer as predicted, and the world is just going on as normal.

Will the cult still by preaching doomsday?

What about say 60 years? Or a hundred?
Click to expand...
As the population increases so does the need for more energy. While conserving energy is a nice idea, you can never conserve enough energy for a growing population. Only if the population is declining or stagnate will conservation work. Otherwise conservation only leads to a lowering of the standard of living. If the standard of living improves, then so does the demand for more energy. Each successive generation wants their standard of living improved, and that requires more and more energy.

It is why the US and EU members are paying Africa huge subsidies (a.k.a. bribes) not to improve the standard of living for their populations. Only they are using the pretext of calling it "climate change." The real purpose is to keep African nations as third world nations that do not consume nearly as much energy compared to the first world nations.

China's population is finally moving into the 20th century, with India not too far behind. They still have a solid 50+ years before they reach what we would consider first world status today, even though both are nuclear powers, but they are certainly making an effort to get their as quickly as possible. I don't blame them either. Who doesn't want to improve their standard of living?
 
BirdinHand said:
They also have a mandate that by 2030, car manufacturers must have 40% of their sales be EV.
Click to expand...
How many of these mandates get put off? Its pretty common.

And again. It will just mean more diety coal is burned I stead of oil for those.

The chinese are building coal power plants at amazing speed.
 
Gateman_Wen said:
China leads the world in ev tech and infrastructure.
Click to expand...
That will just mean more dirty coal, which they by far lead the world in.

And they are building new coal power plants at amazing speed.
 
Global oil production per capita peaked in 1979:

cassandralegacy.blogspot.com

Peak oil? What peak oil?

A blog about collapse as caused by depletion of mineral resources and climate change
cassandralegacy.blogspot.com cassandralegacy.blogspot.com

Meanwhile, energy returns from various sources are low:

The Oil Drum | Why EROI Matters (Part 1 of 6)

theoildrum.com theoildrum.com

But the world needs high returns, and in a global economy where most people don't have and want cars, as well as houses, appliances, etc., and those who do are counting on them to do so because their own income and ROIs are dependent on increasing sales of goods and services:

www.bbc.com

The rise of the global middle class

Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty but can the middle class continue to grow?
www.bbc.com

will need even higher returns:

Will Fossil Fuels Be Able to Maintain Economic Growth? A Q&A with Charles Hall

The inventor of the energy return on investment (EROI) metric argues that economic growth could soon stop—and that we need to get smart about incorporating the true cost of fuel in energy policies
www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
 
Lord Tammerlain said:
And wind, solar along with nuclear
Click to expand...
Sure. But realistically, we do not have a chance in hell of slowing down fossil fuel usage very much for many many many years because of these issues.

The doomsday aims of 12 years is all we have, if they ar right, too bad. It's coming.
 
Simpletruther said:
Sure. But realistically, we do not have a chance in hell of slowing down fossil fuel usage very much for many many many years because of these issues.

The doomsday aims of 12 years is all we have, if they ar right, too bad. It's coming.
Click to expand...
Fossil fuels with the exception of coal, are not really a problem, the supply and our own capability will
cause fossil fuels to price themselves out of the market.
OIl will likely be the first to go, as man made hydrocarbon fuels become the necessary energy storage
for the massive duck curve from wind and Solar. It has already started with jet fuel, but other transport
fuel projects are in the works. Like synthetic oil, synthetic fuel is better than the stuff made from oil.
For one it can be carbon neutral, but more important, anyone with an energy supply can make their own fuel.
To get an idea of how much fuel could be produced, it takes ~ 55kWh to create a gallon of gasoline.
The Bhadla Solar Park in India, would produce about 6.6 MWh of electricity per day, or 120,000 gallons of gasoline per day.
Anywhere with solar or wind, or geothermal, or nuclear power, could make as much fuel as they needed.
As a side effect, the carbon neutral fuel would not increase the atmospheric CO2 level when burned.
 
BirdinHand said:
Why do you assume that rising income will lead to more internal combustion vehicles?
Click to expand...
Consider taking a billion people out of the horse and buggy age to cars.

It isn't dissimilar to that.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom