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How will the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe vs Wade affect voting patterns?

How will the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe vs Wade affect voting patterns?


  • Total voters
    79
Sure, but that's the point. You care about a lot of things, and therefore any one of them individually is unlikely to swing your vote much. I imagine many voters feel the same way.
You don't know that. And you refer to "swing." Imagine the number of people who may have been apathetic about voting BEFORE today?
 
I'm wasting zero time on "both sides do it" false equivalencies today. The Republican party has gone batshit and needs to be voted out. Then we can talk about how lacking the Democratic option is and how that can be improved.
If it is unacceptable or uncomfortable to you to hear or accept that the feelings on the right are as strong and passionate (in opposition to the left) as your feelings are about the right - I can't help you with that. I both hear and recognize how you feel as a Democrat. I recognize that because it's just the way I feel as a Republican, but in reverse - so it's easy for me to understand how strong your feelings are. Your party "has gone batshit and needs to be voted out". As far as lacking a Democratic option - that's up to your side to figure out and address.
 
You don't know that.
If you care about lots of issues with roughly equal importance, then isn't it necessarily true that no one individual issue is likely to swing your vote very much?

That seems like it's mathematically self-evident. If lots of things are a priority, then nothing is a priority.

And you refer to "swing." Imagine the number of people who may have been apathetic about voting BEFORE today?

Sure, like I said, overturning Roe will definitely increase the saliency of the issue. Maybe the number of people who consider it a top issue will go from 5% to 10-12%. And maybe Dems will net a couple percent of the two-party vote as a result. That might be the difference between a disastrous midterm and a mediocre midterm in 2022, and the difference between losing and winning the presidency in 2024.

Those are real differences. I'm not suggesting it won't have an impact; I think it will. Just not as much, and not as long-lasting, as some Dems seem to be convincing themselves it will today.
 
If it is unacceptable or uncomfortable to you to hear or accept that the feelings on the right are as strong and passionate (in opposition to the left) as your feelings are about the right - I can't help you with that. I both hear and recognize how you feel as a Democrat. I recognize that because it's just the way I feel as a Republican, but in reverse - so it's easy for me to understand how strong your feelings are. Your party "has gone batshit and needs to be voted out". As far as lacking a Democratic option - that's up to your side to figure out and address.
I'm an independent who has a party to vote against. The Republican party has gone batshit, and has handed the steering wheel to the Bircher extremist wing.
 
Who in the world are you talking to?

I'm talking to you and everyone else. If Roe v Wade had moved the needle, the Republicans would have been stopped a long time ago. It's not like conservative states haven't been restricting abortion. In some states, it's been de facto dead and out of reach for years. States with like one abortion clinic, with all kinds of restrictions that basically make it impractical.

Since we're kicking around rhetorical questions here, mine to you is, where in the world have you been?
 
I agree...even though the Republicans do not have a clue how to solve inflation. It is certainly not something Congress has any effective levers for, so voting for an R vs and D means nothing, but it won't stop people from voting for fantasy.

The Republicans have been conspiciously quiet about inflation. They have no plan; they have no clue. But the politics of blaming the Dems works for them. The problem is that solving inflation is quite difficult. In many ways, the cure is worse than the disease (slowing the economy to the brink of recession)..... I nonetheless expect to hear about tax cuts as the solution (because its the only thing in the Republican bag of tricks..... they shape it to the circumstance) under the notion that it will let citizens keep more of their money. Of course, tax cuts are inflationary themselves, but they sound good.

Unfortunately, the pro-choice group did a poor job with getting out the vote. If they were just a tad bit more effective in 2016, Roe v Wade would be reasonably safe today and ..... well, we would not have endured 4 years of turmoil the culminated in an attempt coup and serious discussion as to whether the last President should be indicted...... This is on you Planned Parenthood. Ya should have been more effective politically.
You’re correct about the GOP having no plan for dealing with inflation. But they don’t have to have one. All they must do is be on the ballot as an alternative. They don’t have to say a thing. They can let a trip to the gas station and grocery store do their talking.

Planned Parenthood was their own worst enemy in 2020. They sponsored and spent a lot of money to have pro-choice Democrats challenge and defeat 3 pro-life House incumbent Democrats in their primaries. This in 3 swing districts in which PP’s pro-choice democrats lost the general election. This helped the Republicans, besides losing the presidency by 7 plus million votes picked up 13 house seats. Only one other president won the popular vote and lost house seats. That was Grover Cleveland back in 1884, he lost 8 seats. But Cleveland won the popular vote by a mere 58,000 votes, not by 7 plus million.

Independents were the key to Trump’s 2016 win over Hillary. They went for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. Independents gave Trump the wins he needed in the three deciding states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden switched that around winning independents 54-41 over Trump.

It'll be interesting to see if overturning Roe moves the needle in the three categories I chose. The leaked draft didn’t, the mass school shooting didn’t, so far, the 1-6 hearings haven’t. If you go back to May when the leaked draft first came out, the Republicans had a 2.4-point lead in the generic congressional ballot, 538, a 3.0 point lead in RCP’s generic ballot and Biden approval was at 42%, all three just about where they are now prior to any of these events happening.
 
You’re correct about the GOP having no plan for dealing with inflation. But they don’t have to have one. All they must do is be on the ballot as an alternative. They don’t have to say a thing. They can let a trip to the gas station and grocery store do their talking.
I agree with that statement.... its just the voters are ignorant moving from to the right side of the boat from the left side thinking it will make a difference. It will not. There is almost nothing congress can do about inflation (or gas prices). This will be like changing parties because you don't like the weather. What needs to be done, people don't really want. I do predict that the Cons will be talking about tax cuts providing inflation relief, because they think tax cuts are the solution to all ills ...
 
You’re correct about the GOP having no plan for dealing with inflation. But they don’t have to have one. All they must do is be on the ballot as an alternative. They don’t have to say a thing. They can let a trip to the gas station and grocery store do their talking.

Planned Parenthood was their own worst enemy in 2020. They sponsored and spent a lot of money to have pro-choice Democrats challenge and defeat 3 pro-life House incumbent Democrats in their primaries. This in 3 swing districts in which PP’s pro-choice democrats lost the general election. This helped the Republicans, besides losing the presidency by 7 plus million votes picked up 13 house seats. Only one other president won the popular vote and lost house seats. That was Grover Cleveland back in 1884, he lost 8 seats. But Cleveland won the popular vote by a mere 58,000 votes, not by 7 plus million.

Independents were the key to Trump’s 2016 win over Hillary. They went for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. Independents gave Trump the wins he needed in the three deciding states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden switched that around winning independents 54-41 over Trump.

It'll be interesting to see if overturning Roe moves the needle in the three categories I chose. The leaked draft didn’t, the mass school shooting didn’t, so far, the 1-6 hearings haven’t. If you go back to May when the leaked draft first came out, the Republicans had a 2.4-point lead in the generic congressional ballot, 538, a 3.0 point lead in RCP’s generic ballot and Biden approval was at 42%, all three just about where they are now prior to any of these events happening.
Interesting fft. As for the highlighted, I don't think Biden won independents, Trump just repulsed them.
 
I'm an independent who has a party to vote against. The Republican party has gone batshit, and has handed the steering wheel to the Bircher extremist wing.
Well, if you mean you're an Independent as a registered voter, that's where the highest number of voters reside, including me. But despite my voter registration, I'm conservative and as a conservative, I also have a party to vote against - the party that has gone batshit crazy, in my very strong opinion.
 
If it is unacceptable or uncomfortable to you to hear or accept that the feelings on the right are as strong and passionate (in opposition to the left) as your feelings are about the right - I can't help you with that. I both hear and recognize how you feel as a Democrat. I recognize that because it's just the way I feel as a Republican, but in reverse - so it's easy for me to understand how strong your feelings are. Your party "has gone batshit and needs to be voted out". As far as lacking a Democratic option - that's up to your side to figure out and address.
Well said gbg3.
Today for us for 50 years felt that Roe v Wade was bad law have been involved working toward this day for it to be overturned and the issue of abortion return to the states where it belongs. Many never got to see this day who worked hard for decades in hope it would come. I am very thankful that I was able to see it happen today. By returning it back to the people and the representation they elect, what will be the laws on abortion in their state. That is true democracy at work. Some states will decide to support infanticide others may ban abortion altogether. Some may decide some limit in weeks. Whatever, it will be the majority in each state and the legislators they have elected to represent them to decide.
I do not expect this ruling to have an effect on elections in November. People are hurting due to the policies this administration is supporting. That hurt is real and is felt across all political parties.

There is going to be a red wave in November.
 
How will the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe vs Wade affect voting patterns?
Most of those who care about this issue are already sorted into their respective parties.

Each party will have to moderate, but, because we lived under ROE for so long, the GOP is more used to shooting for half a loaf.

In the short term, we will see an uptick in energy from the left base, but, this will run into policy problems in the medium term when it makes it harder for Democrats to propose or support broadly popular compromises. Over the long term, I think it's a wash.

Abortion just isn't as salient an issue for most people as the activists and political junkies wish it was, so, even within those fluctuations, movement will likely be muted relative to projections by the highly politically engaged.
 
If you care about lots of issues with roughly equal importance, then isn't it necessarily true that no one individual issue is likely to swing your vote very much?

That seems like it's mathematically self-evident. If lots of things are a priority, then nothing is a priority.



Sure, like I said, overturning Roe will definitely increase the saliency of the issue. Maybe the number of people who consider it a top issue will go from 5% to 10-12%. And maybe Dems will net a couple percent of the two-party vote as a result. That might be the difference between a disastrous midterm and a mediocre midterm in 2022, and the difference between losing and winning the presidency in 2024.

Those are real differences. I'm not suggesting it won't have an impact; I think it will. Just not as much, and not as long-lasting, as some Dems seem to be convincing themselves it will today.
whatever
 
A slight increase in Democratic voters.
 
I don't think it changes things right away. It will get a lot of press coverage, but it will eventually fade. Republican contempt for abortion is nothing new, and the loss of rights under Roe v Wade is in the abstract, I think.

When the states begin, as I think they will, to restrict access to birth control, that is when I think it will start to become less abstract, and more real. I know that Republicans in the old guard - the ones with an IQ above room temperature like Mitch McConnell and Justice John Roberts - are hoping that Republicans don't go there, which was why Roberts' opinion was more cautious, but guess what: the Court majority went there. Whether they explicitly said it or not, the totality of their opinions makes it clear that this Court is saying that there is no medical right to privacy in the Constitution, and if that is the case, then birth control can be restricted and outright criminalized, too. That is when the backlash may start to begin.

Probably too late for this year's elections, thought the US Senate might have gotten a little more interesting now. But by 2024, I suspect between now and November 2024, we will be talking about this Court over and over again.
I notice that you and some other posters don't get it.

Roe v Wade is not just about abortion. It's about saying out loud and legally that women are persons with the rights of life, liberty, and property a la the 14th Amendment, which asserts, if in another clause, equality. It's about saying we are equal persons with equal dignity.

In my lifetime, I still remember laws from Mississippi in the mid-1960s, when a married woman couldn't get insurance at the company where she worked if her husband didn't sign the form, like a parent, when he had the right to spend any money she inherited from her family, even if he spent it all on booze for himself.

Roe v Wade was the source of respect and dignity, because it was about autonomy as an adult, single or married.

It's not just about pregnancy. It's about being better than some breeding cow. It's about intellect, inner depth, having a soul.

You take a thing like that back, it's a slap in a woman's face, like saying you can't vote any more. It's possible that in an old enough generation, women won't care, but pregnable women? Depending on the IQ and education, you will get them to go vote if it means being able to assert what the SC took away.
 
You’re correct about the GOP having no plan for dealing with inflation. But they don’t have to have one. All they must do is be on the ballot as an alternative. They don’t have to say a thing. They can let a trip to the gas station and grocery store do their talking.

Planned Parenthood was their own worst enemy in 2020. They sponsored and spent a lot of money to have pro-choice Democrats challenge and defeat 3 pro-life House incumbent Democrats in their primaries. This in 3 swing districts in which PP’s pro-choice democrats lost the general election. This helped the Republicans, besides losing the presidency by 7 plus million votes picked up 13 house seats. Only one other president won the popular vote and lost house seats. That was Grover Cleveland back in 1884, he lost 8 seats. But Cleveland won the popular vote by a mere 58,000 votes, not by 7 plus million.

Independents were the key to Trump’s 2016 win over Hillary. They went for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. Independents gave Trump the wins he needed in the three deciding states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden switched that around winning independents 54-41 over Trump.

It'll be interesting to see if overturning Roe moves the needle in the three categories I chose. The leaked draft didn’t, the mass school shooting didn’t, so far, the 1-6 hearings haven’t. If you go back to May when the leaked draft first came out, the Republicans had a 2.4-point lead in the generic congressional ballot, 538, a 3.0 point lead in RCP’s generic ballot and Biden approval was at 42%, all three just about where they are now prior to any of these events happening.
Don't worry about Biden's approval rating or the Democrats' approval rating. Lots of Biden's problem is that Democrats are not that happy with him, and lots of the Democrats' problem is that Democrats are not that happy with them. But Democrats will, in the end, support Democrats - there's no one else to support.

All depends on whether or not Independents realize that the Republicans are too far out and we can't vote on something as trivial as inflation while the Republicans are actually trying to destroy democratic values central to being an American.
 
I notice that you and some other posters don't get it.

Oh I get it. I've been watching radical right wing conservatism, not just this case.

Roe v Wade is not just about abortion. It's about saying out loud and legally that women are persons with the rights of life, liberty, and property a la the 14th Amendment, which asserts, if in another clause, equality. It's about saying we are equal persons with equal dignity.

You are correct. It is not just about abortion. What was the status of women before 1973? What jobs did women have then? Any women CEOs of major corporations? That's the whole point of taking away women's reproductive rights: the radical right wing envisions a world in which women get back in the kitchen and the bedroom, so that "capable" white Christian men can take the jobs and status that women (and minorities, foreigners, and gays) "stole" from them.

In my lifetime, I still remember laws from Mississippi in the mid-1960s, when a married woman couldn't get insurance at the company where she worked if her husband didn't sign the form, like a parent, when he had the right to spend any money she inherited from her family, even if he spent it all on booze for himself.

Here's the thing: I agree with you. I know a lot of women who remember the pre-Roe era feel this on a personal level. This is also personal to me. I never knew my paternal grandmother. My dad's mother died during the height of the Great Depression because she couldn't afford another child and decided to have an abortion in the late spring/early summer of 1934. She died of a perforated uterus. It was a horrible, excruciating way to die, and for children to watch their mother die.

Roe v Wade was the source of respect and dignity, because it was about autonomy as an adult, single or married.

Yep. I get that. Unfortunately, I think there are a lot of people who don't get it. If enough people 'got it', we wouldn't have let it get to this point. The cold, hard reality is that in many states, there's like one abortion clinic that basically doesn't even serve people because there are untold number of restrictions and regulations. In a fair number of states - like Mississippi for example - abortion has been effectively outlawed for several years. Yes, technically, it was still legal, but practically, no. It was already effectively driven into extinction. That's my point. Where the hell were the voters? They're just now waking up? I can't possibly believe that this one ruling is going to make a difference -- to you, yes, because you're old enough to realize what Roe v Wade means.

No, what I think will be the red line is when the states begin to attack birth control - and they will. There will be one red state dumb enough to attack birth control believing it's just an extension of their anti-abortion shit. They don't know that a LOT of women who are themselves anti-abortion take birth control. Hell I've known women who take BC to deal with bad menstrual cramps. And I've known plenty of dudes who've counted on lots of Friday and Saturday night fun assuming the lady next to them is on the pill. Personally? I think Repubs **** with BC at their peril, but they'll give it the college try, I promise.

Conservatives/Republicans ideology is power - never forget that.

Conservatives/Republicans ideology is power - never forget that.

Conservatives/Republicans ideology is power - never forget that.

Conservatives/Republicans ideology is power - never forget that.

Conservatives/Republicans ideology is power - never forget that.

Conservatives/Republicans ideology is power - never forget that.

Remember it. Don't *ever* forget it.

When you vote, if you see an R, you vote against it. Period.
 
Don't worry about Biden's approval rating or the Democrats' approval rating. Lots of Biden's problem is that Democrats are not that happy with him, and lots of the Democrats' problem is that Democrats are not that happy with them. But Democrats will, in the end, support Democrats - there's no one else to support.

All depends on whether or not Independents realize that the Republicans are too far out and we can't vote on something as trivial as inflation while the Republicans are actually trying to destroy democratic values central to being an American.

The Republicans damn near prevented the peaceful transfer of power. They came within 40 feet of murdering the vice president - Trump's vice president - simply because he refused to go along with this insane scheme. And yet if you looked at the last poll, just as many people would be willing to vote for Trump as for Biden.

I'm sorry, but today happened for a reason, and the major reason is that, frankly, the average American is kinda ****ing stupid and confused.
 
Voters (mainly single issue) who are already pro-abortion are already voting Democrat; this SCOTUS ruling isn't going to make those who aren't pro-abortion turn into pro-abortion voters.
 
Ideally women in red states will rebel in the voting booth, but as we see in countries like Russia and the third world people seem to accept true oppression more than you would expect.
By "red states", I suppose you mean states with a pro-life majority. What are pro-life majority women going to rebel against?

Did you mean to say states with a Democrat/pro-abortion majority of women? Do you think that both single-issue pro-abortion men and women haven't already been voting that way?

There are more men who are pro-abortion than pro-life; what about the notion of men ideally rebelling in the voting booth?
 
If it is unacceptable or uncomfortable to you to hear or accept that the feelings on the right are as strong and passionate (in opposition to the left) as your feelings are about the right - I can't help you with that. I both hear and recognize how you feel as a Democrat. I recognize that because it's just the way I feel as a Republican, but in reverse - so it's easy for me to understand how strong your feelings are. Your party "has gone batshit and needs to be voted out". As far as lacking a Democratic option - that's up to your side to figure out and address.
The Democratic option is clearly becoming state elections which yield more Democrats than Republicans. When that happens in each respective state, the Dems legislature can amend the constitution to allow abortion in that state only - just like in IL, CA, and NY. If Democrats can't figure that out then they don't deserve to be in power.
 
the Republicans are actually trying to destroy democratic values central to being an American.
Wow, I guess I should feel like some sort of mindless monster trying to destroy the country.
Why is it I believe the decisions on abortions are best left to the states and not the federal government? If states want it they can elect the state representatives who will give it to them. Am I being that simple to where pro-abortion activists are going to attack me for stating how the right to an abortion can be reinstated in the state in which they live? Doesn't that reflect democratic values to achieve what you want?

What am I missing?
 
How will the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe vs Wade affect voting patterns?
Depends on the state...SCOTUS turned the issue back to the states to figure out; SCOTUS ruled that abortion was not an issue for the SCOTUS to legislate, it was up to the Government to deal with.
Congress and the Senate had 50 years to legislate the issue into law, but passed the buck to the Supreme Court; this should have been addressed by the legislature decades ago....its not the responsibility of the Judiciary to make law.
 
I don't know, man. I'd like to think it's going to bring out the blue at the polls, because the right is now feeling fat, happy, and complacent that they can force women to carry a child to term that they then refuse to help support.

But who knows?
💋 True times infinity ♾️
 
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