[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

[Ginza]

And then there is the Scottish problem that they didn't even anticipated

Not true. Many Scots have wanted independence for decades.

A Scottish independence referendum was held in 2014, years before anyone had even heard of Brexit.

The Scots have not experienced the same inflow of immigrants that the rest of the UK has experienced. Neither has Northern Ireland.

When the British government agreed to freedom of movement they did not anticipate that hundreds of thousands of Eastern Europeans would enter the UK later when these nations joined the EU.

The UK became a favourite destination for immigrants and has a high immigrant population....40% more immigrants per 1 000 of population than a company like Germany which has 9 borders and is close to Eastern Europe.

United Kingdom vs. Germany - Country Comparison

www.indexmundi.com

 

[Ginza]

And this week the SNP has come within a cats whisker of having the absolute majority in the Scottish election. With their allies they now have a electoral majority for independence.

Which is irrelevant as any independence referendum will obviously not be on a first past the post constituency basis, but on a total vote count.

The SNP came close to a constituency majority but is far away from obtaining a majority of Scottish votes.

They may have a constituency majority, along with their allies the Greens, but the independence referendum showed that most Scots wanted to stay within the UK.

The SNP called for a "once in a generation" independence referendum.

They'll have to wait a few more years before another referendum takes place.

If the majority vote for independence then, they should be allowed to leave the UK, which will greatly strengthen the Tories hold on the UK parliament.

I am also hoping that Northern Ireland will soon leave the UK and merge with the Republic, but I would only support this if the majority in NI are in favour of a merge.

 

[Ginza]

Boris Johnson will do everything in his power to make sure that no referendum takes place(

I don't think so.

His party will be much stronger without the Scottish MP's in parliament.

He has to show loyalty to the majority of Scots who voted in the last referendum to stay in the UK. It would be unfair on them to keep on holding referendums every few years until the leavers win.

The UK supports Scotland financially, as it does NI. The people in the rest of the UK would be far better off financially if Scotland left. 60% of Scottish exports go to the UK whilst only about 16% goes to the 27 states of the EU. I don't think it is a financial decision for most Scots, it is a desire to be an independent nation by many and a power grab by their politicians, mainly the SNP.

"60% of Scotland’s exports are to the rest of the UK (£51.2 billion in 2018)"

The UK-EU trade deal and Scotland’s exports

This blog sets out the latest data on Scotland’s exports to the EU and forecasts for the possible impact of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement signed by the UK and EU.

spice-spotlight.scot

"Scotland's deficit seven times higher than UK as a whole last year"​

Scotland's deficit seven times higher than UK as a whole last year

SNP says record spending gap of 7% of GDP proves need for independence

www.theguardian.com

​

ALMOST six in ten people living in Scotland OPPOSE independence, a new poll has indicated, delivering a demoralising hammer blow to Nicola Sturgeon just days after Thursday's Holyrood elections.

 

[Ginza]

Kind off makes their work (and money) for achieving Brexit null and void...

Brexit has already been a huge success.

Avoiding the chaotic vaccine rollout by the EU has saved many British lives.....reason alone for Brexit.

The numbers of unskilled workers coming in from the EU has already declined dramatically whilst the immigration of students (bringing in capital whilst not taking Brit jobs) as well as immigrants with skills that are wanted in the UK has increased.

Britain is now getting the workers it needs.

The Uk is forecast by the IMF to grow faster than the EU in coming years. Business confidence is at an all time high. The EU has a 65% higher unemployment rate than the UK. Brits now make ALL the decisions that affect Brits.

Support for Brexit is higher than ever :

 

[Ginza]

Yes, because most EU citizens living in the UK work there and make money and taxes for the UK.

EU citizens take up jobs that could have been taken by Brits, they force up rents and keep down wage rates. Unemployment in the depressed North of England is much higher than the rest of the UK. These people voted heavily to leave the EU.....understandably.

Many EU citizens working in the UK send their money home. they spend as little as possible in the UK.

They are more dependent on EU workers than Spain is dependent on UK expats/retired people.

Incorrect.

Brits living in Spain brought in loads of capital which lifts the Spanish economy.

They spent much of their retirement income in Spain, paid taxes etc whilst the majority did not work thus not depriving people in Spain of their jobs.

The Brits drove up property prices in Spain. They are now decreasing rapidly as ex-pats leave :

"Spain’s property prices to see Europe’s biggest drop in 2021"​

https://www.thelocal.es/20201105/spains-property-prices-to-see-europes-biggest-drop-and-then-rise-in-just-one-year-sp/

Meanwhile, back in the UK, house prices are booming despite Covid :

"HMRC monthly property transactions data showed UK home sales increased in March 2021 to their highest ever level – up a seasonally adjusted 32.2% from February to 191,000."

 

[Peter King]

Which is irrelevant as any independence referendum will obviously not be on a first past the post constituency basis, but on a total vote count.

The SNP came close to a constituency majority but is far away from obtaining a majority of Scottish votes.

They may have a constituency majority, along with their allies the Greens, but the independence referendum showed that most Scots wanted to stay within the UK.

The SNP called for a "once in a generation" independence referendum.

They'll have to wait a few more years before another referendum takes place.

If the majority vote for independence then, they should be allowed to leave the UK, which will greatly strengthen the Tories hold on the UK parliament.

I am also hoping that Northern Ireland will soon leave the UK and merge with the Republic, but I would only support this if the majority in NI are in favour of a merge.

47.7% of the Scottish voted on the SNP, so it is also not too far away from 50%

And the previous independence vote was in 2014, before Brexit and clearly by a large majority the Scottish did not want to leave the EU. And while the SNP might have called it once in a generation, that was before Brexit.

 

[Ginza]

The only English speaking nation left in the EU now is Ireland. A place very dear to me as, despite being born in the UK I left there as a child. Ireland is where my closest family in Europe live, including one of my daughters.

Ireland has been very innovative in recent years in attracting foreign investment. It has the highest GDP per Capita in the EU….a massive 82% higher than Germany and 63% higher than Holland.

Ireland's unemployment rate was 16% less than ten years ago. It is now 5,8% despite Covid. The EU unemployment rate is 26% higher than Ireland's.

It appears that the larger nations in the EU are extremely envious of this success and want to stop them attracting so much foreign investment. Ireland has a very low tax rate of 12,5%. The European Commission recently instituted a court case against the Irish tax authorities for being too lenient on Apple tax wise.

Both the European Commission and Ireland wasted tens of millions of Euros on the case which was eventually won by Ireland with the European Court Of Justice deciding in their favour.

The UK must be breathing a sigh of relief that it can now make its own decisions and not have to put up with the interference in its domestic affairs that the Irish have had to put up with.

I suspect that the UK will follow Ireland's low rates of taxation

The EU is currently trying to blackmail Ireland into raising its tax rate :

"According to a report in the Irish Times, the Commission is pushing for the Irish to end its tax breaks as a condition of receiving its share of the money set to be distributed through the €750 billion Coronavirus Rescue Fund. Raise taxes or you don’t get the cash is the message from Brussels."

The EU’s position is very odd. Ireland is a net contributor to the EU’s budget, now that the UK has left, so it will be a net contributor to the Rescue Fund as well. In effect, Ireland is being told that in exchange for paying for a bail-out for Italy and Spain it will be forced to wreck the competitiveness of its own economy."

Ireland’s low-tax miracle is over | The Spectator Australia

Okay, in fairness it might be the weather. Or the craic in the bars. Or the rugged coastline, golf courses, or the lakes. And yet for all its charms, there was always a far simpler reason why more…

spectator.com.au

 

[Manc Skipper]

Brexit, yay!

 

[Sven Karma]

Brexit, yay!

The people at the Reliant Robin factory will be gutted.

 

[Manc Skipper]

The people at the Reliant Robin factory will be gutted.

Don't mock! I had a Supervan III before Del Boy!

 

[Peter King]

The only English speaking nation left in the EU now is Ireland. A place very dear to me as, despite being born in the UK I left there as a child. Ireland is where my closest family in Europe live, including one of my daughters.

Ireland has been very innovative in recent years in attracting foreign investment. It has the highest GDP per Capita in the EU….a massive 82% higher than Germany and 63% higher than Holland.

Ireland's unemployment rate was 16% less than ten years ago. It is now 5,8% despite Covid. The EU unemployment rate is 26% higher than Ireland's.

It appears that the larger nations in the EU are extremely envious of this success and want to stop them attracting so much foreign investment. Ireland has a very low tax rate of 12,5%. The European Commission recently instituted a court case against the Irish tax authorities for being too lenient on Apple tax wise.

Both the European Commission and Ireland wasted tens of millions of Euros on the case which was eventually won by Ireland with the European Court Of Justice deciding in their favour.

The UK must be breathing a sigh of relief that it can now make its own decisions and not have to put up with the interference in its domestic affairs that the Irish have had to put up with.

I suspect that the UK will follow Ireland's low rates of taxation

The EU is currently trying to blackmail Ireland into raising its tax rate :

"According to a report in the Irish Times, the Commission is pushing for the Irish to end its tax breaks as a condition of receiving its share of the money set to be distributed through the €750 billion Coronavirus Rescue Fund. Raise taxes or you don’t get the cash is the message from Brussels."

The EU’s position is very odd. Ireland is a net contributor to the EU’s budget, now that the UK has left, so it will be a net contributor to the Rescue Fund as well. In effect, Ireland is being told that in exchange for paying for a bail-out for Italy and Spain it will be forced to wreck the competitiveness of its own economy."

Ireland’s low-tax miracle is over | The Spectator Australia

Okay, in fairness it might be the weather. Or the craic in the bars. Or the rugged coastline, golf courses, or the lakes. And yet for all its charms, there was always a far simpler reason why more…

spectator.com.au

except most unemployment is just from a few countries, Spain with 16%, Greece with 15.8%, Italy with 9% are the biggies and their unemployment is always higher and now especially high because those countries are big tourism countries and that was hit very very very badly by Covid.

Poland, Czech Republic and the Netherlands are below 3.6% unemployment and Hungary, Slovenia, Germany and Malta are all below 5%. And Austria, Romania, Belgium and Bulgaria are also below Ireland. It is the tourism countries mostly that are really letting down the team.

Also, never heard of Holland, it is a country that does not exist.

 

[Peter King]

The only English speaking nation left in the EU now is Ireland. A place very dear to me as, despite being born in the UK I left there as a child. Ireland is where my closest family in Europe live, including one of my daughters.

Ireland has been very innovative in recent years in attracting foreign investment. It has the highest GDP per Capita in the EU….a massive 82% higher than Germany and 63% higher than Holland.

Ireland's unemployment rate was 16% less than ten years ago. It is now 5,8% despite Covid. The EU unemployment rate is 26% higher than Ireland's.

It appears that the larger nations in the EU are extremely envious of this success and want to stop them attracting so much foreign investment. Ireland has a very low tax rate of 12,5%. The European Commission recently instituted a court case against the Irish tax authorities for being too lenient on Apple tax wise.

Both the European Commission and Ireland wasted tens of millions of Euros on the case which was eventually won by Ireland with the European Court Of Justice deciding in their favour.

The UK must be breathing a sigh of relief that it can now make its own decisions and not have to put up with the interference in its domestic affairs that the Irish have had to put up with.

I suspect that the UK will follow Ireland's low rates of taxation

The EU is currently trying to blackmail Ireland into raising its tax rate :

"According to a report in the Irish Times, the Commission is pushing for the Irish to end its tax breaks as a condition of receiving its share of the money set to be distributed through the €750 billion Coronavirus Rescue Fund. Raise taxes or you don’t get the cash is the message from Brussels."

The EU’s position is very odd. Ireland is a net contributor to the EU’s budget, now that the UK has left, so it will be a net contributor to the Rescue Fund as well. In effect, Ireland is being told that in exchange for paying for a bail-out for Italy and Spain it will be forced to wreck the competitiveness of its own economy."

Ireland’s low-tax miracle is over | The Spectator Australia

Okay, in fairness it might be the weather. Or the craic in the bars. Or the rugged coastline, golf courses, or the lakes. And yet for all its charms, there was always a far simpler reason why more…

spectator.com.au

Except the Irish GDP is hugely distorted and just has to do with their lax taxation and many companies going there purely for tax reasons.

As Huffington writes

He argues that traditional GDP also fails to account for Ireland’s unusually high cost of living, which is 25 percent higher than EU norms.


When factoring in Irish households’ relatively weak purchasing power in their expensive economy, he finds that Ireland’s true per capita wealth — as measured by an internationally used index called Actual Individual Consumption — falls to only 95 percent of the EU average.


Employing GNI* and adjusting for higher Irish prices, Honohan finds that Ireland comes only 12th in EU prosperity. Its economic activity per head of population falls behind the U.K., the Nordics, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and — as always — Luxembourg.


Ireland’s “first-in-class ranking is clearly misleading,” he wrote.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ireland-gdp-growth-multinationals-misleading/

 

[Sven Karma]

No sh*t Sherlock

Brexit minister says NI Protocol operation is ‘not sustainable’

The UK's Brexit Minister Lord Frost says the current NI Protocol cannot be sustainable for long.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Godric1970]

47.7% of the Scottish voted on the SNP, so it is also not too far away from 50%

And the previous independence vote was in 2014, before Brexit and clearly by a large majority the Scottish did not want to leave the EU. And while the SNP might have called it once in a generation, that was before Brexit.

40% of Labour voters support Independence in Scotland .... the UK is finished and the little Englanders can't handle it SNP won 62 out of 73 constitutional seats and got over 1 million list votes (40% of List votes) and only received 2 list votes out of 56 yet the Tories got 26 list seats with 22% of the vote that is how the electoral system is rigged in Scotland and Pro independence Scottish Greens won 8 seats and are complaining a far right unionist group stopped the Greens from getting 2 more list seats by setting up a party called Independent Greens with a similar logo to the Scottish Green Party ... also Conservative lost 2 key constitutional seats to the SNP and nearly lost 4 more but were saved by tactical voting ie labour voters voting Tory ... the fact is the unionist parties get spanked with SNP, Scottish Greens & Alba the Indy vote was over 50% and then there was the 40% Labour voters who support Independence ... this time next year we will be voting to leave the UK

 

[Godric1970]

Brexit has already been a huge success.

Avoiding the chaotic vaccine rollout by the EU has saved many British lives.....reason alone for Brexit.

The numbers of unskilled workers coming in from the EU has already declined dramatically whilst the immigration of students (bringing in capital whilst not taking Brit jobs) as well as immigrants with skills that are wanted in the UK has increased.

Britain is now getting the workers it needs.

The Uk is forecast by the IMF to grow faster than the EU in coming years. Business confidence is at an all time high. The EU has a 65% higher unemployment rate than the UK. Brits now make ALL the decisions that affect Brits.

Support for Brexit is higher than ever :

in England maybe but definetley not Scotland and as for saving lives why did Boris Johnson's government allow tom dick and harry from all the covid hotspots through the airports and ports without being screened or spot temprature checks or told to self isolate ... that is why UK has the highest death total in Europe ONS says 150,000 have died from Covid 19 in the UK and not the 127,000 reported by the UK government ... the ONS is the government's own statistics department

and Boris Johnson saying let the bodies pile thousands high

 

[Ginza]

Except the Irish GDP is hugely distorted and just has to do with their lax taxation and many companies going there purely for tax reasons.

Maybe you missed the point in my post that clearly stated that their low tax rate is in place to attract new investment.

The Irish GDP per Capita is exactly as reported by the IMF. No amount of sour grapes will change the facts.

I would agree that GDP per Capita not an infallible method of reporting personal wealth in a nation, which makes me wonder why yourself and other bitter remainers often quote the GDP per Capita of other nations as having a higher GDP per Capita than the UK.

Proof of your hypocrisy is this quote from a post of yours :

"In GDP per capita the UK is a distant 22nd of the world, France, Canada, Belgium, Germany, Finland, Austria, Sweden, Netherlands, Australia, Qatar, Iceland, Denmark, Singapore, USA, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland and Luxembourg all have higher GDP's."

You can whinge all you like but you have to come up with a massive amount of "distorted GDP" to change the FACT :

"Ireland has the highest GDP per Capita in the EU….a massive 82% higher than Germany and 63% higher than Holland."

 

[Ginza]

except most unemployment is just from a few countries

You can cherry pick all you like in an attempt to avoid the truth, but the truth remains :

The EU unemployment rate is 26% higher than Ireland's...

and the EU unemployment rate is nearly 50% greater than the UK.

 

[Ginza]

in England maybe

There's no maybe about it. Brexit has been a tremendous success.

And you can make claims about support for independence based on a constituency, first past the post elections, but any independence vote will be based on a referendum of individual votes.

The last time this happened, Scots chose to stay in the UK in what was called by the Little Scotlanders who wanted the referendum a "once in a generation" referendum.....so sure of victory they were.

So you'll just have to stop shouting off hot air and wait patiently for a few more years.

Only 28% of Scots are in favour of an independence referendum in the next two years :

Elections 2021: Scottish voters less enthusiastic about independence referendum in next 5 years​

Elections 2021: Scottish voters less enthusiastic about independence referendum in next 5 years - Sky News poll

An Opinium survey for Sky News shows the proportion who want a second independence referendum within the next parliament is down.

news.sky.com

 

[Ginza]

and Boris Johnson saying let the bodies pile thousands high

He actually didn't say that.

I wonder if you will be happy to hear that there were no Covid deaths in England, Scotland and Ireland yesterday.

Compare that to the EU where their inefficient vaccination rollout has cost many lives.

Zero Covid deaths for England, Scotland and NI

Wales announces four fatalities as UK chief medical officers lower the Covid alert level.

www.bbc.com

 

[Ginza]

The EU blundering has at least had one good effect, it has produced a "rare show of unity" between the Irish and UK governments :

"How the EU provoked anger in Ireland and the UK"​

"THE EU CONTINUES to face criticism after rowing back on plans to prevent Northern Ireland from being used as a back door to funnel Covid-19 vaccines into the UK."

"The proposal caused outcry on both sides of the Irish Sea and a rare show of unity between the Irish and UK governments and all of the North’s main political parties, each of whom opposed the move."

Timeline: How the EU provoked anger in Ireland and the UK with plans for a hard border for vaccines

The proposal caused outcry on both sides of the Irish Sea.

www.thejournal.ie

 

[Ginza]

Boris Johnson would not be my personal choice for British PM, but he is certainly going from strength to strength :

"The Conservatives’ overwhelming wins in the Hartlepool by-election and a swag of local government contests have reconfirmed Boris Johnson’s historic inversion of British class politics when he stormed through Labour’s northern “red wall” in 2019."

"In both elections, conservative parties pulled off landmark victories against parties of the old left. The latter run the danger of morphing into middle-class protest parties, tweeters with no appeal to aspirational working-class voters in the mortgage belt who just want policies to help them get on."

The swing away from leftist political parties by working class people is going to change politics forever in the UK. The left is now seen as a woke, over politically correct group of snowflakes. ("Snowflake" is a 2010s derogatory slang term for a person, implying that they have an inflated sense of uniqueness, an unwarranted sense of entitlement, or are overly-emotional, easily offended, and unable to deal with opposing opinions.)

I predict that the same will happen in Australia...... and the USA (despite the Biden victory) as if the Republicans had not put up an arrogant, boastful candidate, they would probably have won the recent US election.

Lessons for Labor from realignment in Boris’ Britain

The Tory victory in the Hartlepool byelection should warn the ALP that it can’t rely on Scott Morrison’s prime ministership crumbling in some Twitter war.

www.afr.com

 

[Peter King]

You can cherry pick all you like in an attempt to avoid the truth, but the truth remains :

The EU unemployment rate is 26% higher than Ireland's...

and the EU unemployment rate is nearly 50% greater than the UK.

You mean accurately state the unemployment figures is cherry picking

 

[Peter King]

Maybe you missed the point in my post that clearly stated that their low tax rate is in place to attract new investment.

The Irish GDP per Capita is exactly as reported by the IMF. No amount of sour grapes will change the facts.

I would agree that GDP per Capita not an infallible method of reporting personal wealth in a nation, which makes me wonder why yourself and other bitter remainers often quote the GDP per Capita of other nations as having a higher GDP per Capita than the UK.

Proof of your hypocrisy is this quote from a post of yours :

"In GDP per capita the UK is a distant 22nd of the world, France, Canada, Belgium, Germany, Finland, Austria, Sweden, Netherlands, Australia, Qatar, Iceland, Denmark, Singapore, USA, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland and Luxembourg all have higher GDP's."

You can whinge all you like but you have to come up with a massive amount of "distorted GDP" to change the FACT :

"Ireland has the highest GDP per Capita in the EU….a massive 82% higher than Germany and 63% higher than Holland."

No, it would be you who is missing the point. Several points actually.

First there is no country called Holland, and secondly the Irish GDP figures are artificially inflated and do not show the purchasing power and the wealth of the Irish citizen.

I cannot help it that the former head of the Irish national bank states:

When factoring in Irish households’ relatively weak purchasing power in their expensive economy, he finds that Ireland’s true per capita wealth — as measured by an internationally used index called Actual Individual Consumption — falls to only 95 percent of the EU average.


Employing GNI* and adjusting for higher Irish prices, Honohan finds that Ireland comes only 12th in EU prosperity. Its economic activity per head of population falls behind the U.K., the Nordics, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and — as always — Luxembourg.


Ireland’s “first-in-class ranking is clearly misleading,” he wrote.

 

[Peter King]

There's no maybe about it. Brexit has been a tremendous success.

And you can make claims about support for independence based on a constituency, first past the post elections, but any independence vote will be based on a referendum of individual votes.

The last time this happened, Scots chose to stay in the UK in what was called by the Little Scotlanders who wanted the referendum a "once in a generation" referendum.....so sure of victory they were.

So you'll just have to stop shouting off hot air and wait patiently for a few more years.

Only 28% of Scots are in favour of an independence referendum in the next two years :

Elections 2021: Scottish voters less enthusiastic about independence referendum in next 5 years​

Elections 2021: Scottish voters less enthusiastic about independence referendum in next 5 years - Sky News poll

An Opinium survey for Sky News shows the proportion who want a second independence referendum within the next parliament is down.

news.sky.com

Brexit a tremendous success?

More inaccurate claims I see, Brexit could cost the UK to the tune of 40 billion. Exports are way down, imports are down and certain companies have had to set up warehouses in the EU to deal with Brexit delays.

 

[Godric1970]

There's no maybe about it. Brexit has been a tremendous success.

And you can make claims about support for independence based on a constituency, first past the post elections, but any independence vote will be based on a referendum of individual votes.

The last time this happened, Scots chose to stay in the UK in what was called by the Little Scotlanders who wanted the referendum a "once in a generation" referendum.....so sure of victory they were.

So you'll just have to stop shouting off hot air and wait patiently for a few more years.

Only 28% of Scots are in favour of an independence referendum in the next two years :

Elections 2021: Scottish voters less enthusiastic about independence referendum in next 5 years​

Elections 2021: Scottish voters less enthusiastic about independence referendum in next 5 years - Sky News poll

An Opinium survey for Sky News shows the proportion who want a second independence referendum within the next parliament is down.

news.sky.com

try telling that to businesses, fishermen and farmers in Scotland who are raging mad at the lies told by the brexiters

lets get this straight you are quoting a poll by Sky a company part of the UK apparatus after that result claiming Scots don't want Independence in the next 5 years .... absolute nonsense... you do realise Sky tells the pollster what the question is to ask and who the pollster is to target in the poll

Dominic Cummings says otherwise and wirtnesses who were present said Boris did utter those words

and what Hartlepool has shown Scots is that England is a lost cause especially those who we thought were our closest cousins the North East ... well maybe with the exception of Liverpool and Manchester