[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

[Big Eye]

The car industry is dying, no one will own a car in 20 years time so things like different model specs will have no meaning...you’ll use an app to call in an automated vehicle. The only owned vehicles imo will be things like work vans where your tools and equipment are kept.

People that live in isolated areas may also still own or rent vehicles.

 

[Chagos]

The car industry is dying, no one will own a car in 20 years time so things like different model specs will have no meaning...you’ll use an app to call in an automated vehicle. The only owned vehicles imo will be things like work vans where your tools and equipment are kept.

People that live in isolated areas may also still own or rent vehicles.

If I lived in any city (as I used to years ago) I would by now be heavily into the car sharing field that has arisen (developed) up North over the last years. Parking the damn bus that I owned up North eventually took more time than actually driving to wherever, until I managed to get a monthly parking space rental (at exorbitant price) near my flat, to at least make it to the bed at night without circling the flipping block for hours first.

On the decline of the German car industry (seeing how it finds mention here), the liars running it have consistently peddled the myth that every 7th workplace there hangs on the car industry. A load of bull, seeing how of the roundabout 45 million people in work there, only around 800,000 are actually in the automotive branch. An inevitable loss of 400,000 there (also mentioned) will have nowhere near the impact that the subsidy guzzling twits are trying to make anyone believe. And that decline will also be largely due to electrification anyway, something that kicks out all the manufacturers of combustion engines, clutches, other work- and cost-intensive transmission gear etc.

Living in the sticks of Southern Spain as I do (my very own choice, seeing how I've become sick of big cities) I do need to have my own car, alone to do the shopping (and visit to banks, doctor etc.). But the mileage I actually do would in no way justify ownership, were it not for those reasons.

I'd long since have gone electric (in view of that low mileage), if the dang things weren't so expensive to buy.

 

[Big Eye]

If I lived in any city (as I used to years ago) I would by now be heavily into the car sharing field that has arisen (developed) up North over the last years. Parking the damn bus that I owned up North eventually took more time than actually driving to wherever, until I managed to get a monthly parking space rental (at exorbitant price) near my flat, to at least make it to the bed at night without circling the flipping block for hours first.

On the decline of the German car industry (seeing how it finds mention here), the liars running it have consistently peddled the myth that every 7th workplace there hangs on the car industry. A load of bull, seeing how of the roundabout 45 million people in work there, only around 800,000 are actually in the automotive branch. An inevitable loss of 400,000 there (also mentioned) will have nowhere near the impact that the subsidy guzzling twits are trying to make anyone believe. And that decline will also be largely due to electrification anyway, something that kicks out all the manufacturers of combustion engines, clutches, other work- and cost-intensive transmission gear etc.

Living in the sticks of Southern Spain as I do (my very own choice, seeing how I've become sick of big cities) I do need to have my own car, alone to do the shopping (and visit to banks, doctor etc.). But the mileage I actually do would in no way justify ownership, were it not for those reasons.

I'd long since have gone electric (in view of that low mileage), if the dang things weren't so expensive to buy.

When it comes to the manufacturing of stuff I think it will play an ever decreasing role in employment around the world and I believe the market will become saturated ( stuff isn’t getting that much better with each generation and it lasts longer). As an example, driving cars on crowded, highly controlled roads is no longer much of a pleasure...why would you want to own one if there is a cheaper more effective alternative?

Apple manufacture mostly in China but that’s not where most of its profits end up....where that money gets invested is the key. Countries that pull in vast investment will thrive with basically service industry jobs...wages will necessarily have to be subsided through taxation on big business.

 

[Chagos]

When it comes to the manufacturing of stuff I think it will play an ever decreasing role in employment around the world and I believe the market will become saturated ( stuff isn’t getting that much better with each generation and it lasts longer). As an example, driving cars on crowded, highly controlled roads is no longer much of a pleasure...why would you want to own one if there is a cheaper more effective alternative?

Apple manufacture mostly in China but that’s not where most of its profits end up....where that money gets invested is the key. Countries that pull in vast investment will thrive with basically service industry jobs...wages will necessarily have to be subsided through taxation on big business.

Indeed!

To stay with the German example (by its ever-tediously cited example of car industry, both in either celebrating its downfall or propagating its merits), 70 pct of Germany's GNP is already effected in the service industry anyway, with three quarters of all jobs actually located there.

The secret actually lies in putting into sustainable practice the realization that jobless people cannot by saved from starving by feeding them computer chips.

 

[Sven Karma]

'absolute carnage'. Another Brexit bonus!

'Absolute carnage': EU hauliers reject UK jobs over Brexit rules

Freight company director blames new requirement for EU transport firms to provide VAT and tariff guarantees

www.theguardian.com

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Times are changing Giza, automation means that manufacturing jobs everywhere in the world are at risk. I read a year or so ago that it could potentially be cheaper for Apple to gradually return production to America using high tech automated plants. We have entered a period of rapid change...but I also believe that people are getting tired of constantly buying new gadgets that are only slightly better than the last model.

For Germany it is the electrification that is the issue. Electric motors and no transmissions require fewer people to build vehicle and vehicle part.

 

[Sven Karma]

Sunlit uplands:

Organic food shipping system is a 'nightmare' post-Brexit

One of the UK's biggest health food firms has sent no organic products to Ireland since Christmas.

www.bbc.co.uk

Brexit: 'My meat shipment is rotting in Rotterdam'

Brexit border hold-ups mean customers are starting to go elsewhere says UK meat exporters group.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Sunlit uplands:

Organic food shipping system is a 'nightmare' post-Brexit

One of the UK's biggest health food firms has sent no organic products to Ireland since Christmas.

www.bbc.co.uk

Brexit: 'My meat shipment is rotting in Rotterdam'

Brexit border hold-ups mean customers are starting to go elsewhere says UK meat exporters group.

www.bbc.co.uk

The supports of Brexit all seem to think that more opportunities will become available as a result of Brexit, to make up for the lower opportunities in the EU. I would like to know what opportunities will show up, that were not available before? The EU was making quite a few FTA agreements with other countries in the world, so that is not going to be much of a benefit over the EU. Most standards will have to meet either EU, US, and or Japan/China standards to be sold in those countries. The EU standard is generally accepted worldwide.

Now being a Canadian, who wants Canada to expand trade to countries other than the US. I understand the lazy business of just using the market that is closest and easiest to get to, which I am sure the UK did in the past with the EU. But, Canada would be stupid to put up barriers with the US, as it tries to expand its potential markets for its goods. That is what it looks like the UK has done. It put up barriers to trade with its largest market (the EU) while not having new markets to sell to.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

To add to the above

The UK was prevented from signing new FTAs with foreign countries while it was part of the EU, but at the same time the EU was signing FTAs with various countries, Canada among them. The UK is not really gaining anything in that aspect, it could sign a FTA with the US, which I doubt would have occurred in the EU which might be a benefit. But I would expect with most goods the US is a lower cost manufacturers, so it would be able to flood the UK market with cheaper goods, chicken and pork come to mind

The only real gain is the removal of free movement of UK and EU citizens. A lot will not call that a gain however

 

[Schrott]

I disagree. The UK has already lost most of its industries.

The rest of Europe is losing theirs. The German motor industry is failing rapidly.

"The car industry is in apparent decline in Germany. Some estimates predict that half its 800,000 jobs will be gone by 2030."

Could 400,000 German car industry jobs go? – DW – 07/09/2020

The car industry is in apparent decline in Germany. Some estimates predict that half its 800,000 jobs will be gone by 2030. The industry disagrees with that estimate, but the road ahead looks bumpy.

www.dw.com

"Europe’s manufacturing slowdown shows no sign of letting up"

Europe’s manufacturing slowdown shows no sign of letting up

Germany is worst-hit, and may already be in recession

www.economist.com

In my opinion, the UK and EU should be imposing tariffs on goods imported from China and the Asian Tigers. If they don't, increasing numbers of working class people in the UK and EU will face stagnant wage levels and inequality will grow between rich and poor.

The USA should be doing the same. Manufacturers in Western nations just cannot compete with competitors in China and the rest of Asian (including India) due to the low wage levels in the latter nations.

The USA should fare better because the USA attracts some of the finest brains and skilled entrepreneurs from all over the world.

You mention Tesla. Elon Musk, the worlds richest man, is South African born and bred, and only went to the US because of the opportunities there.

Also, the US has not suffered from Socialism like the UK and EU has. Both the Dems and Republican parties are business friendly especially when compared to many of the political parties ruling in Europe.

You are quiet wrong. The car industry is just one sector of the German industry, very important by all means
VW, Mercedes and BMW are retooling and that will probably cost jobs. No question about that.
But it is the depth and width of industrial production in Germany which drives it.
In German it is called Maschienenbau, the machine makers and tool makers.
That is the core of the German industry and export machine.
Why do you think Teslar choose one of the most expensive countries, labour, labour rights, environment and so to built a Mega Factory.
Because of the industrial base and its highly educated blue colour workforce.
Germany can easily absorb the jobs lost in the automotive industry. Its always way short in highly qualified blue colour workers.

Its not about wages, benefits and so on, its about quality.
German industrial goods are weight in gold, literally.
If you look at Germanies 4th quarter data, you will be surprised, considering Covid, I would say brilliant.

What does that mean for Europe. Germany spins of to Europe, if it can be produced cheaper in Spain, Portugal, Poland and so on than they will get the jobs.
They are not going to China.

You get big in the US, you move your production abroad. That is standard operation.
The US industrial base got gutted, sold out, moved abroad

 

[Ginza]

The supports of Brexit all seem to think that more opportunities will become available as a result of Brexit, to make up for the lower opportunities in the EU.

I am a supporter of Brexit, but certainly don't believe there will be "more opportunities" in future for either the UK or EU.

As I have said, both the EU and UK have yet to realise the danger to their economies that they face from China, India and other Asian nations due to the low wage levels there as well as their rapidly increasing technology capabilities.

The UK is better off out of the EU because

1) the UK's exports to the EU are rapidly declining....thus the EU is less important to the UK.
2) the freedom of movement rule means far too many unskilled workers are entering the UK from the EU.
3) EU membership is expensive, both in monetary terms and in terms of inefficiency.
4) it can only be better for Brits to make decisions that affect Brits.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

I am a supporter of Brexit, but certainly don't believe there will be "more opportunities" in future for either the UK or EU.

As I have said, both the EU and UK have yet to realise the danger to their economies that they face from China, India and other Asian nations due to the low wage levels there as well as their rapidly increasing technology capabilities.

The UK is better off out of the EU because

1) the UK's exports to the EU are rapidly declining....thus the EU is less important to the UK.
2) the freedom of movement rule means far too many unskilled workers are entering the UK from the EU.
3) EU membership is expensive, both in monetary terms and in terms of inefficiency.
4) it can only be better for Brits to make decisions that affect Brits.

The bold applies to all western nations, including Australia, Canada, the US. The living standard we have will be under a lot of pressure as other countries move up the value chain in production and providing services

 

[Ginza]

You are quiet wrong. The car industry is just one sector of the German industry, very important by all means

The reported decline of the motor industry in Germany is just a symptom of what will happen to other industries in the EU and UK.

I use it only as an example of the decline I, and many others, see happening.

Why do you think Teslar choose one of the most expensive countries, labour, labour rights, environment and so to built a Mega Factory.

Tesla started off in the USA because the technology was available there...as were all the engineers that Musk employed to design and otherwise turn his conceptual ideas into reality.

But where are they going to build their cars in future? The place where costs are lower :

How Elon Musk Built a Tesla Factory in China in Less Than a Year

Elon Musk presided over a ceremony at a new multibillion-dollar plant near Shanghai—its first outside the U.S.—where Tesla handed over the first China-made Model 3 sedans to the public

fortune.com

Its not about wages, benefits and so on, its about quality.

So why do BMW, Mercedes and VW have factories in South Africa and many other nations?

It's because wage rates are lower there.

German cars are indeed excellent quality. I have two for this reason. But the Asian nations are rapidly catching up. Whilst you can only get a 3 year warranty on most German cars, Hyundai are offering 7 year warranties on some models. this is a sure sign of their improving build quality.

What does that mean for Europe. Germany spins of to Europe, if it can be produced cheaper in Spain, Portugal, Poland and so on than they will get the jobs.
They are not going to China.

German industry has benefited greatly from low wages, initially from East Germany but also more recently from other former Eastern European states.

But nations like Korea and are fast catching up on vehicle quality, which is why their sales are booming whilst Germany is struggling :

"Korea’s auto industry marks double-digit growth in output, shipments"

Korea’s auto industry marks double-digit growth in output, shipments - Pulse by Maeil Business News Korea

South Korea’s automobile industry may have passed its worst from pandemic crisis, with output and domestic and overseas shipments all in double-digit rebound. According to data released by the Ministry of Trade, Industry

pulsenews.co.kr

 

[Ginza]

The bold applies to all western nations, including Australia, Canada, the US. The living standard we have will be under a lot of pressure as other countries move up the value chain in production and providing services

I totally agree.

This is especially so here in Australia where we do little other than dig up our resources and send them overseas, mainly to China.

We create very little.

Meanwhile, the standard of education of our kids is declining whilst in the Asian nations it is increasing :

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

The reported decline of the motor industry in Germany is just a symptom of what will happen to other industries in the EU and UK.

I use it only as an example of the decline I, and many others, see happening.




Tesla started off in the USA because the technology was available there...as were all the engineers that Musk employed to design and otherwise turn his conceptual ideas into reality.

But where are they going to build their cars in future? The place where costs are lower :

How Elon Musk Built a Tesla Factory in China in Less Than a Year

Elon Musk presided over a ceremony at a new multibillion-dollar plant near Shanghai—its first outside the U.S.—where Tesla handed over the first China-made Model 3 sedans to the public

fortune.com

So why do BMW, Mercedes and VW have factories in South Africa and many other nations?

It's because wage rates are lower there.

German cars are indeed excellent quality. I have two for this reason. But the Asian nations are rapidly catching up. Whilst you can only get a 3 year warranty on most German cars, Hyundai are offering 7 year warranties on some models. this is a sure sign of their improving build quality.



German industry has benefited greatly from low wages, initially from East Germany but also more recently from other former Eastern European states.

But nations like Korea and are fast catching up on vehicle quality, which is why their sales are booming whilst Germany is struggling :

"Korea’s auto industry marks double-digit growth in output, shipments"

Korea’s auto industry marks double-digit growth in output, shipments - Pulse by Maeil Business News Korea

South Korea’s automobile industry may have passed its worst from pandemic crisis, with output and domestic and overseas shipments all in double-digit rebound. According to data released by the Ministry of Trade, Industry

pulsenews.co.kr

I like Hyundai Kia, but they compete more with VW, who does not export cheap cars from Germany but builds them typically where they sell them. I expect Hyundai Kia is taking market share away from Nissan and the US automakers rather than the Germans. Hyundai Kia also made a risky bet in early 2020 to continue to build vehicles when other makers paused during covid 19 allowing them to have vehicles to sell when the market returned

 

[Ginza]

I like Hyundai Kia, but they compete more with VW, who does not export cheap cars from Germany but builds them typically where they sell them. I expect Hyundai Kia is taking market share away from Nissan and the US automakers rather than the Germans.

At present, I agree that this is the case, but Merc and BMW are building smaller and smaller cars whilst the Asian manufacturers are building more luxury cars so their markets are diverging.

Lexus (Toyota) is producing cars which compare very favourably with other luxury brands and is expanding rapidly :

"Lexus has reported its global annual sales figures for 2019, with record numbers coming through once again. Sales were up an impressive 10 per cent on 2018 figures. The luxury Toyota-owned brand sold 765,330 vehicles in 2019, which is the highest annual figure the brand has ever reported."

Lexus reports global sales record in 2019, up 10%

Lexus has reported its global annual sales figures for 2019,...

performancedrive.com.au

Hyundai is struggling to get their luxury Genesis brand going but are constantly improving the quality of their other models.

 

[Schrott]

there is no decline in the German, auto industry. Look at the actual data. They are doing rather fine.

As I wrote it is about the width of the industrial base.
300 or 400 millions till 2030, they will be easily absorbed, because they are needed by the core.

 

[Ginza]

there is no decline in the German, auto industry. Look at the actual data. They are doing rather fine.

I respect your opinion but industry sources tell a different story.

" demand has fallen and the industry faces big challenges in the transition to greener technology, with experts telling CNBC they fear for its future."

Germany's carmakers face a 'toxic mix' of challenges as they emerge from coronavirus crisis

Germany's car manufacturing industry supports tens of thousands of jobs and exports are vital to the country's economy, but it faces big challenges and some experts fear for its future.

www.cnbc.com

This report before Covid :

German Auto Body Warns Of Fall In Sales & More Job Cuts In 2020

German auto body warns of fall in sales & more job cuts in 2020

Germany's Automobile industry association VDA issued a stark warning this week saying that it expects global car sales to fall by 5% - the largest drop since the financial crisis - and that more job cuts may come as a result in 2020...

industryeurope.com

 

[Ginza]

I am reading this mornings Australian Financial Review and co-incidentally it has an interesting report on Merkel's time as leader of Germany which includes :

"Germany has not made the digital switch in time - unlike Korea - and this is becoming existential as cars metamorphose into computers on wheels.

Tesla is worth three times as much as VW, Daimler and BMW combined.

Apple dwarfs the entire market capitalisation of the Dax index.

Deutschland Inc is not worth much anymore.

Merkel has presided over this structural decay.

It is not her fault but she has not done anything about it"

The German economy only looks good within the regional beauty contest of Europe.

Germany has had one of the slowest growing economies in the OECD over the last quarter century.....slower even than Japan.

Productivity growth has averaged 1,2% annually since 1995, compared with 1,7% in the US and 3,9% in Korea."

I admire German made products and the work ethic of the German people but even these attributes will not save their economy from decline. And let me point out that, in my opinion, the UK and the 26 other EU nations will fare a lot worse than Germany going forward.

 

[Sven Karma]

Put the fascist EU super non-state in its place!

UK insists it will not grant EU ambassador full diplomatic status

Foreign Office says EU should not be treated as nation state, despite 142 countries granting bloc this status

www.theguardian.com

 

[PeteEU]

Put the fascist EU super non-state in its place!

UK insists it will not grant EU ambassador full diplomatic status

Foreign Office says EU should not be treated as nation state, despite 142 countries granting bloc this status

www.theguardian.com

Man the Tories are being petty and childish. But it is nothing but a distraction from the absolute catastrophe Brexit has been.

'Absolute carnage': EU hauliers reject UK jobs over Brexit rules

Freight company director blames new requirement for EU transport firms to provide VAT and tariff guarantees

www.theguardian.com

Brexit headache: French firms point finger at UK over red tape delays

Overwhelmed customs services and IT problems in the UK are to blame for trade disruption under post-Brexit rules, say companies and authorities in France.

www.euronews.com

And now the hauliers are going to get fined when the trucks are too long in the border area.. which they only are because the British customs are a mess.

Hauliers waiting for Brexit customs checks face £50 per hour HMRC charge

Truckers have been told that from 1 February, after the first two hours of waiting at the nine sites for the green light, they will be charged £50.

uk.finance.yahoo.com

But at least the Scottish fishermen have found a work around.. going to Denmark to sell their catch instead of the UK.

Scottish fishermen land fish in Denmark to avoid post-Brexit red tape

Scottish fishermen have increasingly turned to fish auctions in Denmark in the first two weeks of the year to avoid having their deliveries to the European Union blocked by post-Brexit red tape.

www.reuters.com

Scottish fishermen 'sailing to Denmark to land catch'

Red tape plus a "poor" Brexit deal mean fishermen fear for the future, says an industry body.

www.bbc.com

What an absolute disaster this is turning out to be and it is all because of Boris and his governments incompetence.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Man the Tories are being petty and childish. But it is nothing but a distraction from the absolute catastrophe Brexit has been.

'Absolute carnage': EU hauliers reject UK jobs over Brexit rules

Freight company director blames new requirement for EU transport firms to provide VAT and tariff guarantees

www.theguardian.com

Brexit headache: French firms point finger at UK over red tape delays

Overwhelmed customs services and IT problems in the UK are to blame for trade disruption under post-Brexit rules, say companies and authorities in France.

www.euronews.com

And now the hauliers are going to get fined when the trucks are too long in the border area.. which they only are because the British customs are a mess.

Hauliers waiting for Brexit customs checks face £50 per hour HMRC charge

Truckers have been told that from 1 February, after the first two hours of waiting at the nine sites for the green light, they will be charged £50.

uk.finance.yahoo.com

But at least the Scottish fishermen have found a work around.. going to Denmark to sell their catch instead of the UK.

Scottish fishermen land fish in Denmark to avoid post-Brexit red tape

Scottish fishermen have increasingly turned to fish auctions in Denmark in the first two weeks of the year to avoid having their deliveries to the European Union blocked by post-Brexit red tape.

www.reuters.com

Scottish fishermen 'sailing to Denmark to land catch'

Red tape plus a "poor" Brexit deal mean fishermen fear for the future, says an industry body.

www.bbc.com

What an absolute disaster this is turning out to be and it is all because of Boris and his governments incompetence.

Boris Johnson all hat no cattle

 

[Sven Karma]

Chomp!

Crisps lorry held up for two days by Northern Irish Brexit checks, MPs told

Incident cited as one example of the ‘disastrous’ impact of new rules on goods crossing Irish Sea

www.theguardian.com

 

[Manc Skipper]

Put the fascist EU super non-state in its place!

UK insists it will not grant EU ambassador full diplomatic status

Foreign Office says EU should not be treated as nation state, despite 142 countries granting bloc this status

www.theguardian.com

It's so ****ing mind-numbingly stupid!

 

[Manc Skipper]

The sovereignty keeps on coming!

"
One of Wales' largest lamb exporters says the extra cost and paperwork of selling meat into the EU means it is making "virtually nothing".
Meat processing plant Randall Parker Foods in Llanidloes, Powys, warned it may lose a third of its 150 workers unless new border controls change.
The company processes one million lambs a year, half of which are exported to the European Union...."

Brexit: Lamb exporter to EU 'making virtually nothing'

Powys meat processing plant warns the extra cost of selling into the EU could mean major job losses.

www.bbc.co.uk