[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

[Hamish Howl]

LOL The Boers invaded British territory? You mean land they stole from among others the Boers? Typical colonial bullshit.

The Boers were a pack of ****s.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Because the US would have a much lighter touch than the EU as regards internal UK management.

Good one. They might even believe things will go well if we smile during the first bit.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Because the US would have a much lighter touch than the EU as regards internal UK management.

Not in reality. The US economy is so large, it would dominate the UK economy, and culture to a far greater degree than the EU did. Safety standards would be modified to match the US, electric stands would slowly convert to NA standards (economies of scale). The only area in which the US would be hands off is UK immigration. Everything else would be dominated by the US. This is coming from a Canadian, which just has a FTA with the US, Canada is not free to act and always has to consider how the US will react to its decisions internal and external

 

[Ginza]

UK food exports are at an all time record level.

UK food exports worth ‘record’ £5.7bn

UK food and drink exports were worth a record £5.7bn in the first quarter of 2019, according to the Department for International Trade (DIT).

www.foodmanufacture.co.uk

 

[Ginza]

As a Canadian, this is a pipedream, at least for Canada

I would agree that there would be little benefit in including Canada in such a Union.

The UK is fourth and NZ seventh in our list of trading partners, so it would make more sense with them......but 60% of our trade is with Asia (China 33%), although our exports to China are mainly raw matrials.

Australians are becoming increasingly worried about our dependence on trade with China, as illustrated quite recently when the Australian government criticised China regarding the Hong Kong situation after which China immediately started putting the brake on their importation of wine, meat etc...in retaliation.

Australia needs to start adding value to its raw materials instead of exporting them. We also need to work harder increasing trade with Korea, Japan, Taiwan,Thailand etc ......but I digress.

 

[Jean-s]

Because the US would have a much lighter touch than the EU as regards internal UK management.

This is not going to happen. It has not even begun to be talked about in Britain. Whatever imaginary constraints the English bellyached about their European partners, they will not fare well against America First!

 

[PeteEU]

"Both the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, had said on Friday that they were willing to compromise on the most contentious issues of domestic subsidy control and EU access to British fishing waters."

"Barnier’s statement appeared to meet all the requests No 10 had been making as the price of new talks."

UK refuses to restart Brexit talks despite EU accepting its demands

No 10 unmoved even after Barnier’s offer prompts Gove to make U-turn at dispatch box

www.theguardian.com

Yet another cave in by the EU.

First off no, the EU did not cave. They have ALWAYS been willing to compromise, as they from the start stated that they did not expect the EU to have the same rights in the UK as now, just as they expected the UK to understand that their status in the EU would change. The only one who wanted to have the status quo and NOT pay for it, was the UK.

Secondly... domestic subsidy control aka state aid. It is a stupid thing to even debate between the two countries because the EU regulations on state aid or as little as possible, comes from among others.. Maggie Thatcher and Co. The problem was who would be the arbitrer in any disputes and here the EU suggest the European courts, which the British rejected. Then the EU asked.. who then? And the Brits so far have been silent and come with zero suggestions. Do you really think the UK will suddenly start providing state aid to out compete others? Under a Tory government that hates state aid? Yea right.

And finally the mystical fishing waters crap. Like it or not both sides have a lot to lose on this... Boris can lose a lot of face, and political will if he caves, and the EU can damage a relatively big industry. When you actually look into what is the problem, you find that the EU has proposed to keep the current system of how to measure things.. less administration and people know how to do it, where as the British want a whole new system that favours them of course (cant blame them on that), but will also increase red tape for both sides.. not to mention have to redo a system that is already in place costing billions for both sides. The British have as of yet failed to even suggest a compromise they would accept and that is why many are accusing the Boris administration of wanting a hard brexit. The best they have said, half heartedly is to continue the current system for 3 years, but at the same time reducing it... but stating to reducing it to what... The lack of specifics by the Brits have become legendary during these last 3+ years of negotiations. It also makes zero sense to throw away an agreement over such a silly thing like fishing, which accounts for 0.1% of the UK GDP. Yea lets screw the rest of the economy over a few fishermen that cant even fish the waters because there are not enough of them anymore.

Like it or not, if you have been following the negotiations from the start.. it is the EU who has been transparent and open, and the British who have been secretive and often come unprepared to negotiations. The only reason I can see for this British attitude, is the Brexit people want a hard brexit for personal financial reasons, but cant be caught too fast in the out right lie they told during the Brexit debate about everything will be fine.

 

[PeteEU]

The Boers were a pack of ****s.

Yea, how dare they live on land that the great British Empire wanted... at least the Zulus were black and could be killed off into submission...

 

[Hamish Howl]

Yea, how dare they live on land that the great British Empire wanted... at least the Zulus were black and could be killed off into submission...

The Brits and the Zulus were also a bunch of ****s.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

I would agree that there would be little benefit in including Canada in such a Union.

The UK is fourth and NZ seventh in our list of trading partners, so it would make more sense with them......but 60% of our trade is with Asia (China 33%), although our exports to China are mainly raw matrials.

Australians are becoming increasingly worried about our dependence on trade with China, as illustrated quite recently when the Australian government criticised China regarding the Hong Kong situation after which China immediately started putting the brake on their importation of wine, meat etc...in retaliation.

Australia needs to start adding value to its raw materials instead of exporting them. We also need to work harder increasing trade with Korea, Japan, Taiwan,Thailand etc ......but I digress.

Labour costs in Australia are too high to dramatically increase value added to the raw materials. I agree it should be done, but without tariffs and other support programs Aussie manufacturing is never going to grow big. Notice how the Aussie auto industry collapsed after tariffs were reduced. Canada has similar but not as severe issues.

Heck I used to work at Nufarm in Canada and just read that they are closing even more of their plants in Australia as they can not compete with foreign imports (aussie farmers not willing to buy Aussie)

 

[Jack Hays]

Not in reality. The US economy is so large, it would dominate the UK economy, and culture to a far greater degree than the EU did. Safety standards would be modified to match the US, electric stands would slowly convert to NA standards (economies of scale). The only area in which the US would be hands off is UK immigration. Everything else would be dominated by the US. This is coming from a Canadian, which just has a FTA with the US, Canada is not free to act and always has to consider how the US will react to its decisions internal and external

All fair. An FTA is exactly what I was thinking of. Regardless, I don't believe Canadians find Washington as intrusive as Brits found Brussels.

 

[Jack Hays]

This is not going to happen. It has not even begun to be talked about in Britain. Whatever imaginary constraints the English bellyached about their European partners, they will not fare well against America First!

America First! will shortly be in the rear view mirror.

 

[Jean-s]

America First! will shortly be in the rear view mirror.

The Americans will wipe the floor with the Brits without the protections of the European Union to back them.

 

[Jack Hays]

The Americans will wipe the floor with the Brits without the protections of the European Union to back them.

The Canadians and the Mexicans seem to be doing OK. And with the Australians & New Zealanders added in, it might make a good group.

 

[Jack Hays]

Hands up! Your fish or your electricity. Macron threatens to cut interconnector to UK

The UK wants to get back its fishing territory as part of a Brexit deal. The French aren’t too happy about that, but since the UK is heavily dependent on French interconnectors Macron can and is holding the UK electricity grid hostage.
Green Energy puts the UK in a much weaker negotiation position.
The French interconnectors under the Channel are needed both to import reliable nuclear power and to sell off the excess fluffy green kind of unreliable electricity that UK wind power makes at random times. The “value” of energy sales is more than the value of the fisheries (at least in hard currency). But UK imports are larger than the exports, and the UK electricity grid is so fragile it fell over last year leaving people stuck in underground trains for hours, and cutting off a million customers in an instant. The biggest weakness of all is probably the reliance on a foreign power to just keep the lights on. The cost of unplanned blackouts would trump everything else.
Macron in last-ditch Brexit punishment with threat to devastate UK with energy blockade
Oli Smith, Express.co
Emmanuel Macron reacted furiously to Boris Johnson’s claims that trade talks are “over” between the UK and EU. Mr Macron has played hardball in the talks on fisheries, insisting on Thursday that French fishermen would “not be sacrificed” for the sake of a deal. However, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal then French fishermen could faced being banned from British waters.
In response, the French President has signalled the EU would launch a devastating energy embargo against the UK unless Boris Johnson gives in on fisheries.
Following the EU summit in Brussels on Friday, Mr Macron told French radio that if the UK does not allow French fishermen in its waters, the EU would have to block the UK’s energy supplies to the European market. . . .

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

All fair. An FTA is exactly what I was thinking of. Regardless, I don't believe Canadians find Washington as intrusive as Brits found Brussels.

The suggestion of course was for a “union “ in areas that include security economics and some political areas. That would be a non starter for the UK as it would give up one master to gain another.

A FTA is entirely possible and likely. It would make the UK a loser however. It can not compete with the US on manufacturing and does not have raw materials to export

 

[Jack Hays]

The suggestion of course was for a “union “ in areas that include security economics and some political areas. That would be a non starter for the UK as it would give up one master to gain another.

A FTA is entirely possible and likely. It would make the UK a loser however. It can not compete with the US on manufacturing and does not have raw materials to export

My apologies for not making clear that a union was well beyond what I had in mind or what I think might be useful. I don't like unions; I like free trade.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

The Canadians and the Mexicans seem to be doing OK. And with the Australians & New Zealanders added in, it might make a good group.

Free trade has benefits and negatives

For countries of relatively similar economic costs and development it can be great, allowing for efficiency gains in both. For countries of dissimilar economic costs and development it can be very disruptive and prevent growth in one of the countries involved

 

[Jack Hays]

Free trade has benefits and negatives

For countries of relatively similar economic costs and development it can be great, allowing for efficiency gains in both. For countries of dissimilar economic costs and development it can be very disruptive and prevent growth in one of the countries involved

Free trade enriches all participants.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Free trade enriches all participants.

Certainly not

If one country has a massive cost advantage in manufacturing, in a free trade agreement it could destroy the manufacturing in the other country leading to mass unemployment and that country becoming much poorer. Good governance might be able to lead the country to make changes and maintain or increase wealth but that is few and far between

For free trade to really work you need the free movement of labour as well. To allow people to go where the jobs are.

 

[Jack Hays]

Certainly not

If one country has a massive cost advantage in manufacturing, in a free trade agreement it could destroy the manufacturing in the other country leading to mass unemployment and that country becoming much poorer. Good governance might be able to lead the country to make changes and maintain or increase wealth but that is few and far between

For free trade to really work you need the free movement of labour as well. To allow people to go where the jobs are.

The Benefits of Free Trade: Addressing Key Myths | Mercatus ...
www.mercatus.org › trade-and-immigration › benefits-f...

May 23, 2018 — Free trade increases prosperity for Americans—and the citizens of all participating nations—by allowing consumers to buy more, better-quality ...
Missing: enriches ‎| Must include: enriches

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

The Benefits of Free Trade: Addressing Key Myths | Mercatus ...
www.mercatus.org › trade-and-immigration › benefits-f...

May 23, 2018 — Free trade increases prosperity for Americans—and the citizens of all participating nations—by allowing consumers to buy more, better-quality ...
Missing: enriches ‎| Must include: enriches

Consumers have to have jobs to buy things, otherwise it matters little if the quality of goods are better and cheaper

Mexico had millions of people who lost farming jobs and did not have corresponding jobs created by free trade. Hence a mass migration to the US to find jobs

 

[Luce]

The Canadians and the Mexicans seem to be doing OK. And with the Australians & New Zealanders added in, it might make a good group.

What's up with New Zealand?

 

[Luce]

New Zealand's main trading partners, as at June 2018, are China (NZ$27.8b), Australia ($26.2b), the European Union ($22.9b), the United States ($17.6b), and Japan ($8.4b).

Not sure why the Aussies and the Kiwis would change anything they're doing.

 

[Jean-s]

The Canadians and the Mexicans seem to be doing OK. And with the Australians & New Zealanders added in, it might make a good group.

It is not contemplated.