9/26/20
Poll of the week: A new
Quinnipiac University national poll finds Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a 52% to 42% lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters. That's somewhat of a more optimistic result for Biden than the
average of national polls, which has Biden's margin closer to 7 points.
What's the point: Trump's 2020 campaign and, indeed, his entire presidency has been about rallying the Republican base. Thanks to Trump's messaging, the percentage of voters who see him as conservative has
jumped during his presidency compared to where it was during the 2016 campaign.
The problem for Trump is that in his efforts to appease the base, he has lost his ability to appeal to those outside of it. If Trump ends up losing, it'll be because his gains with the Republican base have not been offset by his losses among other voters. What makes his gain with Republicans startling is that his overall standing is 9 points worse when comparing Quinnipiac's poll in late September 2020 to late September 2016. The culprit is Trump's doing much worse with Democrats and independents. He was up 7 points with independents in Quinnipiac's poll four years ago. Today, Trump's down with independents by 8 points. Trump's deficit among Democrats has ballooned from 84 points to 94 points in Quinnipiac's polling.
Trump's edge with conservatives has climbed from 55 points in 2016 to 63 points in polls taken in April or later this year. Meanwhile, Trump's position has declined among liberals and moderates. He's down by 83 points with liberals now compared to 70 points with liberals in 2016. With moderates, Trump's deficit has gone from a little over 20 points in 2016 to a little over 27 points now. While conservatives do make up a larger share of the electorate than liberals, liberals and moderates form a majority (60% to 65% of all voters). Again, it's a bad trade for Trump to gain more conservatives while losing similar standing among liberals and moderates. If Trump wants to make a comeback in 2020, chances are he'll have to retake some of the ground he's lost outside of his base. Based on his actions this far into the campaign, Trump seemingly has no interest in doing that.
