March 14, 2018
In the 2016 presidential election Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 18th Congressional District in southwestern Pennsylvania by 58%-38%, and rolled up a margin over his Democratic rival of more than 72,000 votes. the collapse of the Trump vote in a range of places, from well-heeled suburban enclaves around Pittsburgh, to working class townships, from exurbs to rural boroughs, should be a severe wake-up call for Republicans who must defend dozens of similar districts in the midterm elections just eight months from now. And for Democrats fighting over the future of their party, it's a message that they can field moderate candidates who can win in Trump country if they can turn out the vote. The suburban townships of southern Allegheny County that made up roughly 45% of the total ballots cast in this special election (up from 42% in the 2016 presidential race) provided Lamb with his critical margin of victory. Clinton only won about 48% of the votes in this portion of the 18th in 2016, but Lamb captured 57% on Tuesday, eclipsing Saccone by more than 15,000 votes.
Based on the results of this special congressional election, Republicans need to brace themselves for a Democratic wave that could swamp similar GOP congressional seats. Perhaps in a stand-alone special election it's inevitable that Trump is going to be the overwhelming focus of the race. But the outcome in Pennsylvania suggests that Republicans who think they can mobilize the Trump base and ride out an impending Democratic wave next November could be making a bad political bet.
At the same time, Democrats were blessed in the 18th Congressional District by having Lamb as their nominee. There's no doubt that he was a superior candidate, well suited for his district, compared to the Democratic nominees of the four previous House special elections that the party lost. Making similar shrewd recruiting decisions will also be key to Democratic prospects come November.