How soon should Covid restrictions be removed?

[TU Curmudgeon]

Calm down, no need for big fonts.

Let's suppose that out of nowhere, a vaccine were discovered tomorrow. Perfectly safe, near-certain guarantee that with it, you won't get COVID-19.

Fun fact: It will take months, maybe years, to get that vaccine from R&D to the masses. You have to set up the assembly lines for mass production, which takes a long time, and then you have to arrange the distribution to hundreds of millions. Maybe in trumpland that happens by magic before the election, but in the real world that takes a long time.

We will be lucky if we get the injection in 2021. 2022 seems like a better prediction.

It appears that the reasonable time line would be that the vaccine would be available around September 2021 (with universal distribution some time after that).

It appears that the optimistic time line would be that the vaccine would be available around June 2021 (with universal distribution some time after that)..

It appears that the "Claque Trump" time line is that the vaccine will be available (and universally distributed) before 03 NOV 20.

It appears that Mr. Trump's time line is that the vaccine will have been available, have been universally distributed, and have totally wiped out COVID-19 "whenever I say so".

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Fun fact: Have you heard about operation "Fast Track"? The one where pharmaceuticals are in stage three of trials consisting of a drug they already have. A drug they are also currently manufacturing in mass quantities for a release (maybe as early as late November) provided the FDA approves. The plan being that upon that approval healthcare workers and first responders will be first in line to receive it. Followed by those in Nursing Homes and then those in the group compromised by ailments such as cancer. Have you heard about that operation?

Have you ever heard about Operation Market Garden?

The success of that operation depended on absolutely every single factor working out exactly as planned.

"Operation Fast Track" relies on exactly the same basic premise.

PS - If the government does decide to restrict distribution based on occupation, you can rest assured that there will be a plethora of law suits alleging "infringement of constitutional rights to equality of treatment" - and that the majority of them will be launched by "(American) Conservatives".

 

[Overitall]

Of course you are "leaning towards immediately"..... For anyone under 75 who becomes infected, death may not be the most serious effect they are burdened with for the rest of their lives. You also have no idea of how effective a vaccine will be, <snip>

All I have to go on is what the medical experts tell me. If they say it’s safe and effective should I call them liars simply because Trump is in office? Or should I wait until Biden is in office and then believe the experts because he told us we should?

 

[noonereal]

All I have to go on is what the medical experts tell me. If they say it’s safe and effective should I call them liars simply because Trump is in office? Or should I wait until Biden is in office and then believe the experts because he told us we should?

you need to be VERY weary if Trump is in office which is why I will wait for NY State to do a review independent of the federal government agencies.

We can trust nothing under Trump and we all know it.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

The pharmaceutical companies are racing to the finish line? No shit! What else are you going to try to laysplain to me on this Sunday afternoon?

Of course they are "racing to the finish line". The first one across it gets 100% of the boodle (and there will be a LOT of boodle because the government will be hard pressed to refuse to pay whatever the successful company demands for the vaccine once the country learns that one is available).

You have to remember that one of the invariable laws of contemporary American politics is

I don't care how much taxpayer money it costs or how successful it actually is
PROVIDED
that it ensures that I get reelected.​

and you should also remember that another of the invariable contemporary laws of American politics is

I don't care how effective or necessary it is or even how little it costs
IF
it will result in one of "Their Guys" getting elected.​

and you should also remember that another of the invariable contemporary laws of American politics is

I will do and/or say anything at all to ensure my election/reelection
BUT
I will do whatever I damn well feel like doing once that has been achieved (regardless of what I did or said).​

 

[Overitall]

you need to be VERY weary if Trump is in office which is why I will wait for NY State to do a review independent of the federal government agencies.

We can trust nothing under Trump and we all know it.

Let me know when Cuomo releases the info on the nursing home deaths. He did such a wonderful job I don’t know what he wants to hide.

Some New York lawmakers have accused Cuomo’s administration of refusing to divulge the complete count to make it appear that his state is doing better than others on the nursing home crisis and make a tragic situation less dire.

Cuomo dismisses undercount concerns in NY care home deaths

NEW YORK (AP) — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo dismissed concerns that his state’s coronavirus death toll in nursing homes could be a significant undercount, saying it makes sense to include only those residents who died on the home’s property. Unlike the federal government and every other state...

apnews.com

 

[noonereal]

Let me know when Cuomo releases the info on the nursing home deaths. He did such a wonderful job I don’t know what he wants to hide.

Cuomo dismisses undercount concerns in NY care home deaths

NEW YORK (AP) — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo dismissed concerns that his state’s coronavirus death toll in nursing homes could be a significant undercount, saying it makes sense to include only those residents who died on the home’s property. Unlike the federal government and every other state...

apnews.com

LOL, I guess you agree with me.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

It's all a conspiracy. The pharmaceuticals are rushing to get a vaccine (purely for profits) which the FDA is going to approve (simply for kickbacks) in order to make a quick buck killing who knows how many people in the hundred of thousands. Then when the lawsuits come they will claim it was the FDA's fault that they approved a dangerous drug. No one will ever be prosecuted for any crime and they will live happily ever after with the ill-gotten gains from a bunch of suckers.

Enjoy your afternoon!

It isn't a "conspiracy" so much as it is "a fortuitous alignment of several individual aims".

The pharmaceutical companies are in business for one purpose only - to make money for the people who own their stock. This is NOT going to change.

The (current) leadership of the FDA appears to have as its primary aim to maintain their lucrative employment and as its secondary aim to prepare for a lucrative transition to employment with a pharmaceutical company. That is only going to change when the (current) leadership of the FDA changes and/or when those charged with telling the leadership of the FDA change.

 

[Overitall]

It isn't a "conspiracy" so much as it is "a fortuitous alignment of several individual aims".

The pharmaceutical companies are in business for one purpose only - to make money for the people who own their stock. This is NOT going to change.

The (current) leadership of the FDA appears to have as its primary aim to maintain their lucrative employment and as its secondary aim to prepare for a lucrative transition to employment with a pharmaceutical company. That is only going to change when the (current) leadership of the FDA changes and/or when those charged with telling the leadership of the FDA change.

That sounds like someone saying: “I’m almost pregnant!”

 

[Mycroft]

Its different because your hero, the orange buffoon, is doing it.

Otherwise, its the same thing.

No. It's different because he isn't playing with life and death. You want him to play with life and death.

Screw you.

You are dismissed.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

A vaccine must be at least 50% effective to be approved by the FDA. Those are the rules. I do not know how they define "effective"...is it totally preventing disease? Or is it preventing serious disease....
I have been following the vaccines being tested very closely. ALL of them have produced, after two injections separated by a month, neutralizing antibodies AT LEAST equal to those found in convalescent patients. And most of the times the levels have been found to be significantly higher that those in convalescent patients. The new Johnson and Johnson vaccine, now moving into stage three trials, is intended to work with a single dose (see below). Even if the antibodies wane over time the human immune system retains "memory" in T cells so that when challenged with another protein that is similar a robust immune response is likely even with existing low antibody levels...but I think I am getting off topic so I will stop here:


"There is some good news on Johnson & Johnson's coronavirus vaccine.
Early results from a Phase 1/2a clinical trial show it was well tolerated and even one dose appeared to produce a strong immune response in almost all of the 800 participants.
The trial included two age groups: 18- to 55-year-olds and 65 and older, and looked at the safety and side effects of two different doses. Initial findings from the trials suggest the vaccine does provoke an immune response and is safe enough to move into large-scale trials."

Johnson and Johnson vaccine produced strong immune response, early results say

Early results from a Phase 1/2a clinical trial shows it was well tolerated and even one dose appeared to produce a strong immune response in almost all of the 800 participants.

www.cnn.com

The Act (that regulates the FDA) explicitly gives the legal definition of the evidence necessary for the Agency to determine that a drug product has been found to be effective; that standard is “substantial evidence of effectiveness,” and is defined as “evidence consisting of adequate and well-controlled investigations, including clinical investigations, by experts qualified by scientific training and experience to evaluate the effectiveness of the drug involved, on the basis of which it could fairly and responsibly be concluded by such experts that the drug will have the effect it purports or is represented to have under the conditions of use prescribed, recommended, or suggested in the labeling or proposed labeling thereof.”
[SOURCE]​

What that means is that "effective" means

• whatever the FDA says it means,
  
  
• using whatever standards the FDA says should apply,
  
  
• as measured through whatever means the FDA says should apply,
  
  
• under whatever conditions the FDA says should apply,
  
  
• as conducted by personnel having whatever qualifications the FDA says should apply,
  
  and
  
  
• verified through whatever means the FDA say should apply.

In short, it is quite an effective exercise in the application of bafflegab to legislative drafting.

However, it doesn't quite make it up to the ultimate standard of

• making whatever you want to do mandatory
  
  
• making whatever you don't want to do prohibited
  
  and
  
  
• providing no obstruction to changing your mind as to what you want to do and what you don't want to do.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Of course you are "leaning towards immediately"..... For anyone under 75 who becomes infected, death may not be the most serious effect they are burdened with for the rest of their lives. You also have no idea of how effective a vaccine will be, how many will be willing to take the vaccine or when it will be widely available, but here you are, eagerly willing to gamble with the futures and the long term health of everyone else.

But you do not consider your opinion ill informed or extreme. In fact, you have it all figured out.

Coronavirus updates: US cases pass 7 million mark; Florida lifts restrictions; America is nowhere near herd immunity

The U.S. has reported more than 7 million cases of COVID-19 as of Friday, but deaths are projected to almost double by Jan. 1. Latest COVID-19 news.

www.usatoday.com

Coronavirus updates: US cases pass 7 million mark; Florida lifts restrictions; America is nowhere near herd immunity
Jessica FloresRyan W. MillerJoel Shannon
USA TODAY 09-25-2020

Washington Post
‘Long-haul’ covid-19 complications are real. I faced similar problems after surviving Ebola.
Dozens of other studies outline how SARS and MERS left many survivors with long-term health conditions. Enduring fatigue, inability to return ...
1 week ago

Here And Now
'They're Not Actually Getting Better,' Says Founder Of COVID ...
Diana Berrent is a COVID-19 long-hauler, which is a person who suffers ... Because the coronavirus is a vascular disease, she says Survivor Corps ... “They are being told to stay at home under no medical supervision with ...
2 weeks ago

With respect to the headline of your cited article only.

America is no where near herd immunity but "Claque Trump" is rapidly approaching herd mentality.

BTW, there are various degrees of "herd mentality". There is "The Bos Taurus Herd Mentality" wherein "A" does he "X" that "B", "C". "D", ... and "Z" did because everyone seems to be doing it, they can't see what is happening outside of a narrow window, and they have no functional ability to look outside of that window. There is "The Ovis Aries Herd Mentality" wherein "A" does the "X" that "B" did because "B" did it. There is also "The Cervinae Herd Mentality" wherein "A" does "X" because.". (If you don't believe me, ask anyone who raises cows, sheep, or deer.)

It appears to me that a large segment of the American population IS developing (if it hasn't already) "The Bos Taurus Herd Mentality".

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

In respect to how Trump assisted Cuomo what facts of assistance changed? Did he suddenly stop with any assistance?

What advice Mr. Trump was giving in March and April appeared to match the known reality.

Mr. Trump continued to give the same advice when it was patently obvious to any rational person that it DID NOT match the known reality.

In fact, Mr. Trump continued to give the same advice even after it didn't match the reality as he has shown he knew it was.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Let me know when Cuomo releases the info on the nursing home deaths. He did such a wonderful job I don’t know what he wants to hide.

Cuomo dismisses undercount concerns in NY care home deaths

NEW YORK (AP) — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo dismissed concerns that his state’s coronavirus death toll in nursing homes could be a significant undercount, saying it makes sense to include only those residents who died on the home’s property. Unlike the federal government and every other state...

apnews.com

<SARC>Quite right. When one of "Their Guys" says something that you don't want to hear, that simply **P*R*O*V*E*S** that they are lying and there is no need for any further evidence or thought. But when one of "Our Guys" says something that you do want to hear, that **P*R*O*V*E*S** that it is the truth and there is absolutely no need to even look at any evidence to the contrary because evrewunknoz that that so-called "evidence" is all lies</SARC>.

 

[Overitall]

What advice Mr. Trump was giving in March and April appeared to match the known reality.

Mr. Trump continued to give the same advice when it was patently obvious to any rational person that it DID NOT match the known reality.

In fact, Mr. Trump continued to give the same advice even after it didn't match the reality as he has shown he knew it was.

You’re not only changing the goalposts, but the game as well.

 

[Overitall]

<SARC>Quite right. When one of "Their Guys" says something that you don't want to hear, that simply **P*R*O*V*E*S** that they are lying and there is no need for any further evidence or thought. But when one of "Our Guys" says something that you do want to hear, that **P*R*O*V*E*S** that it is the truth and there is absolutely no need to even look at any evidence to the contrary because evrewunknoz that that so-called "evidence" is all lies</SARC>.

Yup.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

LOL, I guess you agree with me.

Would it then, according to your "logic", make sense to count those who were transferred from their homes to hospitals and died of COVID-19 there as "home deaths' rather than "hospital deaths"?

If that is so, then following your "logic" that would mean that the US has probably had ZERO "hospital deaths" from COVID-19.

Heck, by extension, <SARC>since there is no known case of anyone with COVID-19 dying until their heart stopped beating, it would be equally "logical" to classify those deaths as "deaths due to heart failure" rather than "deaths due to COVID-19" and that, then, would mean that the number of "deaths due to COVID-19" in the US is zero, and that, then, would also mean that the total worldwide number of "deaths due to COVID-19" is ZERO and that would **P*R*O*V*E** that there is no such thing as that so-called "COVID-19"</SARC>.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

That sounds like someone saying: “I’m almost pregnant!”

It is possible to be "almost pregnant", although, admittedly, that is a "dynamic situation" (I'll spare your sensitivities and those of the mods by not being more graphic).

It is NOT possible to be "a little pregnant".

What you should remember is that, in almost any field of endeavour, it isn't what you DO that is important, but rather what you CALL what you do that matters.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

You’re not only changing the goalposts, but the game as well.

Nice try.

The goal posts are the same regardless of whether you are holding the ball on the one yard line or 37" further forward.

 

[Overitall]

It is possible to be "almost pregnant" (I'll spare your sensitivities and those of the mods by not being more graphic).

It is NOT possible to be "a little pregnant".

What you should remember is that, in almost any field of endeavour, it isn't what you DO that is important, but rather what you CALL what you do that matters.

You must be a big fan of Rachel Dolezal.

 

[Overitall]

Nice try.

The goal posts are the same regardless of whether you are holding the ball on the one yard line or 37" further forward.

Not if you’re playing hockey.

 

[Ethel2]

No. It's different because he isn't playing with life and death. You want him to play with life and death.

Screw you.

You are dismissed.

So your useless opinion must be that Covid 19 is “just a cold” or “just a flu”...and that “when the warm weather comes it will disappear like magic “.....gosh, where have I heard that before.

 

[Ethel2]

The Act (that regulates the FDA) explicitly gives the legal definition of the evidence necessary for the Agency to determine that a drug product has been found to be effective; that standard is “substantial evidence of effectiveness,” and is defined as “evidence consisting of adequate and well-controlled investigations, including clinical investigations, by experts qualified by scientific training and experience to evaluate the effectiveness of the drug involved, on the basis of which it could fairly and responsibly be concluded by such experts that the drug will have the effect it purports or is represented to have under the conditions of use prescribed, recommended, or suggested in the labeling or proposed labeling thereof.”​

[SOURCE]​

What that means is that "effective" means

• whatever the FDA says it means,
  
  
• using whatever standards the FDA says should apply,
  
  
• as measured through whatever means the FDA says should apply,
  
  
• under whatever conditions the FDA says should apply,
  
  
• as conducted by personnel having whatever qualifications the FDA says should apply,
  
  and
  
  
• verified through whatever means the FDA say should apply.

In short, it is quite an effective exercise in the application of bafflegab to legislative drafting.

However, it doesn't quite make it up to the ultimate standard of

• making whatever you want to do mandatory
  
  
• making whatever you don't want to do prohibited
  
  and
  
  
• providing no obstruction to changing your mind as to what you want to do and what you don't want to do.

Interesting. So if all it does is prevent serious disease 50% of the time its “effective “. Better than anything we have now I guess.
I don’t trust the CDC any more however. Not with the orange buffoon threatening to overrule them.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

You must be a big fan of Rachel Dolezal.

Not really.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Not if you’re playing hockey.

If they have "a one yard line" where you play hockey, you are playing the wrong game.