How Long Before Kiev Falls?

[RetiredUSN]

It's not looking good as the Russian thugs have the city almost surrounded and soon will choke off any replenishments.

It's amazing that the Ukraine fighters have held on this long IMO.

 

[VySky]

It's not looking good as the Russian thugs have the city almost surrounded and soon will choke off any replenishments.

It's amazing that the Ukraine fighters have held on this long IMO.

Other cities are choked off. No power etc. it’s a matter of time. He’s using his second string so to speak weapons. He’s saving the good stuff for idiots like Warhawk Biden. We need to stay out of this.

 

[Jredbaron96]

Hard to say. Depends on how hard the Russians push for Kiev and what strategy they use.

 

[Litwin]

Other cities are choked off. No power etc. it’s a matter of time. He’s using his second string so to speak weapons. He’s saving the good stuff for idiots like Warhawk Biden. We need to stay out of this.

ivan , you are wrong, Ukraine will be your ulus ( horde) graveyard much like a-stan killed ussr


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-suggest-bloated-appearance-drugs-effect.html

 

[Litwin]

It's not looking good as the Russian thugs have the city almost surrounded

No, even Kharkiv is not surrounded , Muscovite hordemen are without chances in Kyiv

 

[Litwin]

Russian thugs

😁

 

[Rogue Valley]

Kyiv is a large city split in half by the Dneiper river. The mayor says every street interchange is barricaded with kill zones mapped out. About 100,000 soldiers/civilians remain in Kyiv to fight.

Unfortunately, I believe the Russian military will incrementally begin to flatten neighborhoods a'la Grozny.

They'll use standoff weapons... cruise missiles, fighter jets, artillery, tank fire, MLRS, and thermobarics. Kyiv will resemble Stalingrad.

The Russian commanders have no ethical problem committing war crimes. Trenches have been dug in the city for mass burials.

 

[Peter]

I think the city will hold for quite a while as they've been setting defensive positions for ages now.
It'll be a bloodbath for Russia and not somewhere I'd like to be no matter how well trained I was.

 

[Litwin]

surrounded

 

[Litwin]

I think the city will hold for quite a while as they've been setting defensive positions for ages now.
It'll be a bloodbath for Russia and not somewhere I'd like to be no matter how well trained I was.

It's clear that Russia isn't going to win in this conflict. I'm just curious how it all ends at this point.

Chris Brown ​

10 days ago

As a former 0341 in the Marine Corps I take great joy in the fact the Russian military has performed like absolute dog shit and we’ve given them fat too much credit in our training exercises😂😂😂.

 

[Court Jester]

It's not looking good as the Russian thugs have the city almost surrounded and soon will choke off any replenishments.

A few more weeks at most, barring any increased shelling.

In a months time I believe the Ukrainians will be at the negotiating table giving Putin what he originally demanded anyway. Sad, but likely.

It's amazing that the Ukraine fighters have held on this long IMO.

Yes, and then there may have been a slow Russian advance toward Kiev as part of their strategy, because clearly in the eastern provinces the Russian advance was much better coordinated and effective. The eastern provinces with a land connection to Crimea and then around down to Odessa is really what I believe the Russians want to take and hold. The rest of Ukraine I do not believe Putin wants to remain an occupier, as that becomes a boat anchor to any nation to be an occupying force for very long. The Ukraine post Zelnsky will have been effectively "Finlandized" into submission, no longer with aspirations of being part of NATO, and beholden to the Russian oil economy, and eventually the Ukraine will be no different than Belarus is, a puppet province.

 

[EnigmaO01]

😁

Rasputitsa!

 

[Rich2018]

Anywhere between 3-6 months.

 

[beerftw]

It's not looking good as the Russian thugs have the city almost surrounded and soon will choke off any replenishments.

It's amazing that the Ukraine fighters have held on this long IMO.

I would give kyiv or kiev or however you want to spell it 2-3 weeks, yesterday the russians did a metric crapton of pushes in all directions, and are currently doing a major naval push towards odessa.

Many of the major cities in the east are partially or fully surrounded, and russian progress has not been in kyiv as much as going through the suburbs to try and surround them. Kyiv only has a single major road left for in and out travel, and if the russians continue around the city, they could eventually block that too and starve them out.

So far sumy and chenihiv look like they will fall any minute, karhkiv is putting up some fight but slowly losing ground, mariupol is getting hammered and surrounded, and mykolaiv is limited on support coming across the river as russia has the land mass to the east cornered, and a single main road and a river to the west of the city.

I feel they are not going to engage in heavy urban combat in the biggest cities, but try and isolate eachother from logistics, and try to starve them into surrendering.

 

[multivita-man]

It's not looking good as the Russian thugs have the city almost surrounded and soon will choke off any replenishments.

It's amazing that the Ukraine fighters have held on this long IMO.

Kiev can fall, but Russia has to occupy it, which isn't likely going to happen when they're country is facing default and their ruble is in a free fall. There's a reason Putin is leveling Ukrainian cities. He wants to negotiate his exit from a position of strength. He can't occupy Kiev and many other cities in Western Ukraine, and everyone knows it. But at the same time, he can continue to rain missiles down on Ukraine, and Ukraine and the West know that.

 

[multivita-man]

I would give kyiv or kiev or however you want to spell it 2-3 weeks, yesterday the russians did a metric crapton of pushes in all directions, and are currently doing a major naval push towards odessa.

Many of the major cities in the east are partially or fully surrounded, and russian progress has not been in kyiv as much as going through the suburbs to try and surround them. Kyiv only has a single major road left for in and out travel, and if the russians continue around the city, they could eventually block that too and starve them out.

So far sumy and chenihiv look like they will fall any minute, karhkiv is putting up some fight but slowly losing ground, mariupol is getting hammered and surrounded, and mykolaiv is limited on support coming across the river as russia has the land mass to the east cornered, and a single main road and a river to the west of the city.

I feel they are not going to engage in heavy urban combat in the biggest cities, but try and isolate eachother from logistics, and try to starve them into surrendering.

Russia doesn't have the money and manpower to occupy Ukraine, particularly given the fact that the West *will* re-supply Ukraine. It'll be hell, it'll be brutal, but Ukraine, like Russia, are hard-ass people who, if need be, will gut it out to defend their land. Ukrainians have survived invasions, famines, massacres...just like Russians have. Ukraine will lose Crimea and the Donbas Republics. But they'll keep their country, and Putin will be able to walk back with something in hand: a "buffer" between the 'perverted' West and Mother Russia.

 

[multivita-man]

It's not looking good as the Russian thugs have the city almost surrounded and soon will choke off any replenishments.

It's amazing that the Ukraine fighters have held on this long IMO.

The problem for the Russians is, their currency is now worth almost...nothing.

 

[Hamish Howl]

It's not looking good as the Russian thugs have the city almost surrounded and soon will choke off any replenishments.

It's amazing that the Ukraine fighters have held on this long IMO.

Russia isn't going to enjoy what happens in Kyiv.

 

[beerftw]

Russia doesn't have the money and manpower to occupy Ukraine, particularly given the fact that the West *will* re-supply Ukraine. It'll be hell, it'll be brutal, but Ukraine, like Russia, are hard-ass people who, if need be, will gut it out to defend their land. Ukrainians have survived invasions, famines, massacres...just like Russians have. Ukraine will lose Crimea and the Donbas Republics. But they'll keep their country, and Putin will be able to walk back with something in hand: a "buffer" between the 'perverted' West and Mother Russia.

I doubt it, because russia has far more resources than people think, and america funding them with manpads and atgm's will not stop the russians at all, nor will the west trying to supply them.

The only thing russia would not be able to easily defeat would be an insurgency war after the ukraine govt falls, which seems to be what the west is funding. Keep in mind though insurgency warfare may only work against the russians if they feel like being affected, they did defeat such after ww2 in ukraine, and are not afraid to go full stalin if they have to.

 

[CaughtInThe]

we're entering a period of years of occupation and freedom fighters and assassinations and guerilla warfare.

 

[multivita-man]

I doubt it, because russia has far more resources than people think, and america funding them with manpads and atgm's will not stop the russians at all, nor will the west trying to supply them.

Yeah, but they can't sell those resources. Their currency is crashing. They're dealing with massive inflation. And I didn't even mention the fact that Russia's miles-long convoy basically stalled and still hasn't made lots of advances. Can Russia level Ukraine with missiles? Oh sure, absolutely - no debate. But to truly take over a country, you have to occupy it. And occupying a foreign country requires years - even decades - of commitment. If Russia's struggling this hard to conquer a comparatively weaker neighbor, they can't reasonably expect to occupy and control Ukraine for an indefinite term.

The only thing russia would not be able to easily defeat would be an insurgency war after the ukraine govt falls, which seems to be what the west is funding.

Exactly my point. Yes, Kyiv could fall, but it's not enough to make a capital fall or even replace a regime -- did we not learn anything from our adventures in Baghdad and Kabul?!

Keep in mind though insurgency warfare may only work against the russians if they feel like being affected, they did defeat such after ww2 in ukraine, and are not afraid to go full stalin if they have to.

They're going full-Stalin, and there's only so much they can do. They're invading a country that has an identity that tens of millions of people are willing to die and *kill* for. And unlike Nazi Germany, Russia is fighting this foe alone, and it's fighting this foe against a united global effort to punish her economically. So WWII parallels are inaccurate, IMO.

 

[beerftw]

The problem for the Russians is, their currency is now worth almost...nothing.

It is not much lower than it was before, we are talking about something like needing 109 rubles for a dollar going to 119 rubles for a dollar acting like that is an absolute crash, but the ruble was worth less than a cent before and less than a cent after.

The problem of the west is that they think the russians will fold when historically such actions have never deterred war but made all out war more likely, as when goods can not cross borders soldiers will. The other thing is the ussr functioned as an isolated economy, and russia is hinting about returning to the self sustained soviet style economy again.

The final thing is this is a game of misery, problem is russia is no stranger to it, much of their population is used to no running water, having to walk miles to the nearest water source, walking miles to get to a train to go down town to shop, etc. They had mass poverty and hardships going on until around 2004-2014, from there it was back to hardships.

Do you really think america would win a game of misery chicken against russia or china? Hell if china ended up cutting off trade in retaliation the entire us economy would crash worse than the depression as we are extremely reliant on them, yeah the chinese would suffer but they are used to that, they barely achieved a middle class while america has not faced hardships since ww2. If russia and china retaliate to current russian sanctions and threats of sanctions against china, americans would cave first as they have no concept of hardship, while in russia and china famine and poverty are norms the population grew up with.

 

[multivita-man]

we're entering a period of years of occupation and freedom fighters and assassinations and guerilla warfare.

I kinda doubt it - I think Russia wants to be able to negotiate a peace that's not humiliating to them. If they can't occupy Ukraine, they can leave it 'rubbled'.

 

[multivita-man]

It is not much lower than it was before, we are talking about something like needing 109 rubles for a dollar going to 119 rubles for a dollar acting like that is an absolute crash, but the ruble was worth less than a cent before and less than a cent after.

Look at the charts and you'll see the Ruble is as weak as it's been in a long while.

The problem of the west is that they think the russians will fold when historically such actions have never deterred war but made all out war more likely, as when goods can not cross borders soldiers will. The other thing is the ussr functioned as an isolated economy, and russia is hinting about returning to the self sustained soviet style economy again.

Right, but that's going to be different for Russia, and it didn't work out too well the last time.

The final thing is this is a game of misery, problem is russia is no stranger to it, much of their population is used to no running water, having to walk miles to the nearest water source, walking miles to get to a train to go down town to shop, etc. They had mass poverty and hardships going on until around 2004-2014, from there it was back to hardships.

I will concede this point: Russia has a higher tolerance for pain than the West does.

Do you really think america would win a game of misery chicken against russia or china? Hell if china ended up cutting off trade in retaliation the entire us economy would crash worse than the depression as we are extremely reliant on them, yeah the chinese would suffer but they are used to that, they barely achieved a middle class while america has not faced hardships since ww2. If russia and china retaliate to current

No, I make no predictions about how the U.S. would fare in an economic war, but I know who I want to win.

russian sanctions and threats of sanctions against china, americans would cave first as they have no concept of hardship, while in russia and china famine and poverty are norms the population grew up with.

 

[beerftw]

Yeah, but they can't sell those resources. Their currency is crashing. They're dealing with massive inflation. And I didn't even mention the fact that Russia's miles-long convoy basically stalled and still hasn't made lots of advances. Can Russia level Ukraine with missiles? Oh sure, absolutely - no debate. But to truly take over a country, you have to occupy it. And occupying a foreign country requires years - even decades - of commitment. If Russia's struggling this hard to conquer a comparatively weaker neighbor, they can't reasonably expect to occupy and control Ukraine for an indefinite term.



Exactly my point. Yes, Kyiv could fall, but it's not enough to make a capital fall or even replace a regime -- did we not learn anything from our adventures in Baghdad and Kabul?!



They're going full-Stalin, and there's only so much they can do. They're invading a country that has an identity that tens of millions of people are willing to die and *kill* for. And unlike Nazi Germany, Russia is fighting this foe alone, and it's fighting this foe against a united global effort to punish her economically. So WWII parallels are inaccurate, IMO.

Why would they need to sell those resources? You literally must never have unsderstood war time economies or the communist economy, russia is self reliant enough it can produce almost everything it needs, very few nations on earth can say the same. You make it sound like russia can only function with us dollars, but the soviet union proved that wrong by having a bigger navy and air force and army the the united states or nato despite being economically isolated.

Holding ukraine takes forces, but russia still has plenty, their active force is about 1 million and their reserves are over 2 million, if they wanted to they could allow reserves and conscripts to fight in ukraine, and numerically if russia wished they could force millions more into service, you grossly underestimate the russians.

Kyiv will fall, but I feel it will be among the last to fall, russia is hoping for a surrender, because even with all the heavy bombing and shelling, taking an urban center like kyiv would have heavy casualties on both sides, no matter what army tried to invade it, they are trying to surround them to force them into surrender rather than trying to push to invade it head on, knowing they may lose tens of thousands of troops with ukraine losing possibly almost 100k troops and mass civilian casualties. It is not rocket science to realize the russians screwed up by not going hard and fast and they gave ukraine time to retreat forces to urban centers to focus on urban combat, russia is trying to surround them to avoid epic bloodshed both ways, but looking at how the russians feel, if starving them does not work they may move for epic bloodshed.