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How it all went wrong (again) in Europe as second wave grips continent

Metric Mouse

Metric Mouse

Your hi-top sneakers and your sailor tattoos.
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How it all went wrong (again) in Europe as second wave grips continent - CNN

But Europe can take some comfort from experience. Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, told CNN earlier this month that the initial lockdown was "never, ever going to solve the problem for us in Europe or anywhere else; it was simply deferring it."

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I just don't know. If Europe, South Korea, New Zealand can't even open up without increasing case numbers, as strict, dedicated and cautious as they are ( especially compared to people in the United States), maybe this thing is going to beat us. Depressing news.
 
Overitall said:
That’s terrible news. Someone better come up with an effective vaccine real soon. The social rubber band is about to snap.
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I'm not hopeful that an effective vaccine will be produced in the next 24 months. History and science offer no indication that such a vaccine could he produced faster than that, of ever (zero for 7 on coronavirus vaccines after decades of trials) Add to the fact that 4/10 Americans wouldn't get it even if one were developed, and I don't know what to even look forward to. Only hope is that I'm terribly wrong.
 
looks like the israelis have decided to lock down for the second time
and they have their own right wing religious groups attacking that scientifically driven decision
will be interesting to see how this plays out, recognizing that the tRump administration has committed us to a strategy to acquire herd immunity
 
Metric Mouse said:
I'm not hopeful that an effective vaccine will be produced in the next 24 months. History and science offer no indication that such a vaccine could he produced faster than that, of ever (zero for 7 on coronavirus vaccines after decades of trials) Add to the fact that 4/10 Americans wouldn't get it even if one were developed, and I don't know what to even look forward to. Only hope is that I'm terribly wrong.
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I’m weighing whether I will take the vaccine when it becomes available. But not because of it being available soon. I’ve never even taken a flu shot and I’ve been good all these years. But this one is scary and my wife and I are in the compromised group. So for her sake I might risk the shot.
 
For the most part Europe pretty much completely backed-off mitigation & embraced the vacation & tourist seasons. I have no idea why they eschewed masks and social distancing. They could have left masks & mild mitigation in place, and likely would have done well (IMO).

The virus is all around us & omnipresent, even when it's beaten down low - as it was in Europe. But when it is beaten down low, IMO it seems reasonably viable to keep it in-check with moderate mitigation. Why does everyone seem to think when the virus goes low, that we have absolute freedom?

We're not going to be clear of this thing for at least another year or two. Stock-up on masks & hand sanitizers, stay out of the bars & churches, and use them.
 
Overitall said:
I’m weighing whether I will take the vaccine when it becomes available. But not because of it being available soon. I’ve never even taken a flu shot and I’ve been good all these years. But this one is scary and my wife and I are in the compromised group. So for her sake I might risk the shot.
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Like you, I never do flu shots or vaccines. I won't rush out for the vaccine, that's for sure. But if a year from now we're still in the same bind, and the vaccine has a good track-record of being safe & reasonably effective, I might consider it.

But frankly, I'm thinking we'll be in much better shape come the end of next year.
 
Metric Mouse said:
How it all went wrong (again) in Europe as second wave grips continent - CNN

But Europe can take some comfort from experience. Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, told CNN earlier this month that the initial lockdown was "never, ever going to solve the problem for us in Europe or anywhere else; it was simply deferring it."

----------------------------

I just don't know. If Europe, South Korea, New Zealand can't even open up without increasing case numbers, as strict, dedicated and cautious as they are ( especially compared to people in the United States), maybe this thing is going to beat us. Depressing news.
Click to expand...

I think it's possible to open up, the question is how much is opened up since the greater the exposure, the more likely there will be a large surge. So far the northeastern US has managed to open up parts of its economy and managed to maintain the numbers down. One of the things which didn't help is the increase in travel seen in Europe with people going on holiday once they were able to. Of course, the other factor is how careful people were while on holiday. I had a similar concern with the start of the summer vacation period in NY and NJ, but things didn't go sideways fortunately. This fall is going to be a big test since the outdoor option will disappear for a lot of businesses and activities.
 
So, this is Trump's fault, just not sure exactly why.
 
Its Trumps fault!

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 
Metric Mouse said:
How it all went wrong (again) in Europe as second wave grips continent - CNN

But Europe can take some comfort from experience. Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, told CNN earlier this month that the initial lockdown was "never, ever going to solve the problem for us in Europe or anywhere else; it was simply deferring it."

----------------------------

I just don't know. If Europe, South Korea, New Zealand can't even open up without increasing case numbers, as strict, dedicated and cautious as they are ( especially compared to people in the United States), maybe this thing is going to beat us. Depressing news.

Have you really looked at the true fatality rate ? It doesn't near cancer or heart disease. Neither has beaten us.
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The common denominator is it's being spread by mostly younger people now. How did colleges not know there would be frat parties? How did Europe not know that there would be heavy partying and groups getting together while they were on holiday? It's time to focus on restricting the younger crowds.
 
ElChupacabra said:
I think it's possible to open up, the question is how much is opened up since the greater the exposure, the more likely there will be a large surge. So far the northeastern US has managed to open up parts of its economy and managed to maintain the numbers down. One of the things which didn't help is the increase in travel seen in Europe with people going on holiday once they were able to. Of course, the other factor is how careful people were while on holiday. I had a similar concern with the start of the summer vacation period in NY and NJ, but things didn't go sideways fortunately. This fall is going to be a big test since the outdoor option will disappear for a lot of businesses and activities.
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Yep. That's a big deal!
 
mass rapid testing is what is gonna save the day.
 
I do recall the pasting that Sweden copped on here for their approach, currently they have a very low infection rate v the rest of Europe.
 
Metric Mouse said:
How it all went wrong (again) in Europe as second wave grips continent - CNN

But Europe can take some comfort from experience. Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, told CNN earlier this month that the initial lockdown was "never, ever going to solve the problem for us in Europe or anywhere else; it was simply deferring it."

----------------------------

I just don't know. If Europe, South Korea, New Zealand can't even open up without increasing case numbers, as strict, dedicated and cautious as they are ( especially compared to people in the United States), maybe this thing is going to beat us. Depressing news.
Click to expand...

It has nothing to do with "opening up" per say. Also it depends on what country and even city we are talking about.

But one thing that is clear, is that private parties or get togethers at home have been driving the spread. The average age at the moment is the mid 30s. Just over the weekend, there was an outbreak in Denmark where a birthday party infected 34 of 42 guests or something like that. One of many of such examples across Europe.

The problem is now that the young spread it to the older population which will push up the death numbers.. and that is now being seen in Spain. One thing for sure, is that masks work since the spread happens almost exclusively in places where masks are ignored or not seen as needed.

Oh and btw.. the US is still in the first wave. Most countries in Europe had its numbers down in double digits before going the other way.... the US cant break 30k a day so far.
 
Chomsky said:
For the most part Europe pretty much completely backed-off mitigation & embraced the vacation & tourist seasons. I have no idea why they eschewed masks and social distancing. They could have left masks & mild mitigation in place, and likely would have done well (IMO).

The virus is all around us & omnipresent, even when it's beaten down low - as it was in Europe. But when it is beaten down low, IMO it seems reasonably viable to keep it in-check with moderate mitigation. Why does everyone seem to think when the virus goes low, that we have absolute freedom?

We're not going to be clear of this thing for at least another year or two. Stock-up on masks & hand sanitizers, stay out of the bars & churches, and use them.
Click to expand...

Europe in general (there are 44 countries in Europe) hasn't eschewed masks or social distancing.
 
HennyBogan said:
I do recall the pasting that Sweden copped on here for their approach, currently they have a very low infection rate v the rest of Europe.
Click to expand...

They also have a very high death rate v the rest of Europe.
 
Metric Mouse said:
How it all went wrong (again) in Europe as second wave grips continent - CNN

But Europe can take some comfort from experience. Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, told CNN earlier this month that the initial lockdown was "never, ever going to solve the problem for us in Europe or anywhere else; it was simply deferring it."

----------------------------

I just don't know. If Europe, South Korea, New Zealand can't even open up without increasing case numbers, as strict, dedicated and cautious as they are ( especially compared to people in the United States), maybe this thing is going to beat us. Depressing news.
Click to expand...
This was predicted to happen just like in 1918 when the virus resurged in the autumn and winter with an even deadlier strain of Spanish flu. The biggest problem we are facing is 'Covid fatigue'; essentially people being bored with restrictions and deciding to carry on as if the virus has vanished. Then there's the beginning of the the school and college terms which brings its own problems. Nevertheless any hotspots in the UK are getting locked down if spikes occur, so with luck we can keep our numbers down. I can envisage another total lockdown in the near future if idiots still refuse to comply with simple common sense advice and precautions.
 
Metric Mouse said:
Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, told CNN earlier this month that the initial lockdown was "never, ever going to solve the problem for us in Europe or anywhere else; it was simply deferring it."
Depressing news.
Click to expand...

This is what I said months ago. These viruses do what they do. All lockdowns and similar may do is flatten or extend the curve, but the virus continues, and/or snaps back until herd immunity occurs either by burning itself out, or by a vaccine.
 
Court Jester said:
This is what I said months ago. These viruses do what they do. All lockdowns and similar may do is flatten or extend the curve, but the virus continues, and/or snaps back until herd immunity occurs either by burning itself out, or by a vaccine.
Click to expand...
Yup. Protect those at the highest risk and let everyone else go on with their lives. Lockdowns were always foolish.
 
Aristaeus said:
They also have a very high death rate v the rest of Europe.
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There are quite a few countries in Europe ahead of Sweden on death rate, and those countries are exploding again!
 
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