• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

How Far Will Russia Go? - The Real Map That Matters

XDU

Banned
Joined
Jan 5, 2022
Messages
1,726
Reaction score
407
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Other
Ukrainian_parliamentary_election%2C_2007_%28first_place_results%29.PNG


This is the electoral map of the 2007 parliamentary election which followed the parliamentary crisis earlier that year. The crisis was a continuation of the Orange Revolution in 2004 where the elected President suffered a poisoning attack and eventually withdrew before Yulia Tymoshenko replaced him. The problem here is his rival would eventually come back and become President himself which is where Euromaiden and contemporary concerns over oligarchic corruption come into play. The blue area in this map is the area his rival found support in versus the purple area which was Tymoshenko's support.

%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_2010_%D0%BF%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%85-en.png


This is a map of the 2010 presidential election in which Yulia Tymoshenko lost to Viktor Yanukovych, the rival to Viktor Yushchenko in the Orange Revolution. Again, you'll notice how similar the map is to the 2007 parliamentary election. The reason for this is simple. In the east are where the richest areas in Ukraine are found who did not want to go along with social program and social welfare spending which would be the most impacted by heightened tax policies:

Ukraine_GRP_per_capita_2008_US_dollars_%28nominal%29.png


This is a map sorting Ukraine's people by wealth.

It would be naive to not take this into consideration over strategic military planning.
 

joluoto

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 8, 2020
Messages
8,177
Reaction score
4,101
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Progressive
They will have to go all the way to the Polish border, because Ukraine is not going to stop fighting until they have nowhere to retreat. Russia will be stuck with a Chechnya on steroids. I would also use a more modern election map.

1024px-%D0%A0%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8_%D0%9F%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%85_%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%96%D0%B2_%D0%B2_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%96_2019_%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%83_%D0%B7%D0%B0_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B8.svg.png


The 2019 map. Blue is where Pro- Russian parties still were largest in 2019, in many places they used to be large they have collapsed, Russophone areas don't support the Pro- Russian position anymore like they did before (only in Ukrainian controlled Donbas are they still winning and in control of local politics).

Russia used to control half of Ukraine through the Pro- Russian parties. Now they don't and they haven't since 2014 when the Pro- Russian position collapsed in large parts of Ukraine where these parties used to be dominant.

Another map that explains this well:

800px-Ethnolingusitic_map_of_ukraine.png


Only part of the Russophone population of Ukraine identifies as ethnic Russian, many Russophone Ukrainians identifies as ethnic Ukrainian.
 

Nilhus

DP Veteran
Joined
Jul 7, 2019
Messages
617
Reaction score
127
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian
I don't know, but I tend to believe that no part of Ukraine hosting nato weapons would be ok for Russia. So I think it's more related to that than to ethnicity composition and allegiances.
 

XDU

Banned
Joined
Jan 5, 2022
Messages
1,726
Reaction score
407
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Other
They will have to go all the way to the Polish border, because Ukraine is not going to stop fighting until they have nowhere to retreat. Russia will be stuck with a Chechnya on steroids. I would also use a more modern election map.

1024px-%D0%A0%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8_%D0%9F%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%85_%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%96%D0%B2_%D0%B2_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%96_2019_%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%83_%D0%B7%D0%B0_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B8.svg.png


The 2019 map. Blue is where Pro- Russian parties still were largest in 2019, in many places they used to be large they have collapsed, Russophone areas don't support the Pro- Russian position anymore like they did before (only in Ukrainian controlled Donbas are they still winning and in control of local politics).

Russia used to control half of Ukraine through the Pro- Russian parties. Now they don't and they haven't since 2014 when the Pro- Russian position collapsed in large parts of Ukraine where these parties used to be dominant.

Another map that explains this well:

800px-Ethnolingusitic_map_of_ukraine.png


Only part of the Russophone population of Ukraine identifies as ethnic Russian, many Russophone Ukrainians identifies as ethnic Ukrainian.
That was my initial thought before I looked into the ideology of the current government. The political party in charge is literally run by a comedian, and his party's platform is self-described as "creative centrism" that was originally libertarian and now somewhere between liberalism and socialism.

To put it plainly, Ukraine's government and solidarity is literally a joke. There is good reason to appeal to those previously voting along language speaking lines and wealth who want a more seriously political structure, especially when it comes to protecting their property rights.

I do think if Russia decides to go for Kyiv that the war will be like Chechnya on steroids like you said since Kyiv is firmly in the political opposition's territory, and there is a serious chance of that happening from how many troops are deployed in the north along Belarus. However, I also think those troops could be a misdirection to convince Ukraine to defend an area not intended to be attacked.
 

joluoto

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 8, 2020
Messages
8,177
Reaction score
4,101
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Progressive
That was my initial thought before I looked into the ideology of the current government. The political party in charge is literally run by a comedian, and his party's platform is self-described as "creative centrism" that was originally libertarian and now somewhere between liberalism and socialism.

To put it plainly, Ukraine's government and solidarity is literally a joke. There is good reason to appeal to those previously voting along language speaking lines and wealth who want a more seriously political structure, especially when it comes to protecting their property rights.

I do think if Russia decides to go for Kyiv that the war will be like Chechnya on steroids like you said since Kyiv is firmly in the political opposition's territory, and there is a serious chance of that happening from how many troops are deployed in the north along Belarus. However, I also think those troops could be a misdirection to convince Ukraine to defend an area not intended to be attacked.
Last election was an election where the electorate rejected the old parties and political leaders and opted for new blood, because of various corruption scandals, which is why a new party was able to win so many votes. Also why Zelensky was elected President, because he was not a politician. In a way Zelensky is something of a Trump, though not as dumb. It also is starting to look likely his party will lose next parliamentary election.

But the fact remains, the Pro- Russian parties don't win elections outside Donbas anymore, and they used to win all over Eastern Ukraine. Meaning the Pro- Russian position has politically collapses among Russophone Ukrainians.

The problem with Putin's plan to take only parts of Ukraine, is that Ukraine won't stop fighting. He wants to force Kiev to sign a new treaty that dissolves Ukraine into a loose federation of states. They won't. Instead he'll be forced to fight all the way to Lviv, and then have to deal with occupying lands inhabited by a hostile population that will fight a continued insurgency.
 
Last edited:

XDU

Banned
Joined
Jan 5, 2022
Messages
1,726
Reaction score
407
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Other
Last election was an election where the electorate rejected the old parties and political leaders and opted for new blood, because of various corruption scandals, which is why a new party was able to win so many votes. Also why Zelensky was elected President, because he was not a politician. In a way Zelensky is something of a Trump, though not as dumb. It also is starting to look likely his party will lose next parliamentary election.

But the fact remains, the Pro- Russian parties don't win elections outside Donbas anymore, and they used to win all over Eastern Ukraine. Meaning the Pro- Russian position has politically collapses among Russophone Ukrainians.

The problem with Putin's plan to take only parts of Ukraine, is that Ukraine won't stop fighting. He wants to force Kiev to sign a new treaty that dissolves Ukraine into a loose federation of states. They won't. Instead he'll be forced to fight all the way to Lviv, and then have to deal with occupying lands inhabited by a hostile population that will fight a continued insurgency.
Mmm... I'm inclined to believe that Servant of the People doesn't have real support. It has support just because the comedian is funny, so he charmed the people. That doesn't automatically translate into serious resistance. Funny people often run and hide when the going gets tough. They're all bark and no bite.
 
Top Bottom