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If we're going to judge from history, I think he'll go as far is it takes to achieve his objective, which appears to be removing the current Ukrainian government from power and possibly extending Russian control of Eastern Ukrainian territory populated by ethnic Russians. He may also have made a bargain with Belarus to expand that nation's borders.
The best model we have would probably be the Second Chechen War. The Russians essentially leveled the Chechen capital, Grozny, using powerful conventional weaponry such as thermobaric rockets fired from TOS-1 rocket launchers. This weapons system has been sighted in Ukraine by CNN. The Russian Defense Ministry spokesman has already alluded to the Ukrainian government providing weapons to civilians as possibly leading to civilian casualties. They may come to the conclusion that the only way to take the capital will be, as they did in Grozny, clearing it one block at a time using the thermobaric weapons and god knows what else. More recently, the Russians and their Syrian client demonstrated no qualms about targeting civilians, even resorting to chemical weaponry. The Russians also possess large quantities of ballistic missiles and conventional rockets.
So how far would Putin go? Short of nuclear war, as far and as long as it takes to get the job done. The word "lose" is not in this man's vocabulary, although I have a feeling his days may be numbered here as he faces his biggest challenge to date and international sanctions begin to bite, casualties mount, and his generals and the Russian citizenry grow weary of him. Going forward, if I were him I'd sleep with the lights on.
The best model we have would probably be the Second Chechen War. The Russians essentially leveled the Chechen capital, Grozny, using powerful conventional weaponry such as thermobaric rockets fired from TOS-1 rocket launchers. This weapons system has been sighted in Ukraine by CNN. The Russian Defense Ministry spokesman has already alluded to the Ukrainian government providing weapons to civilians as possibly leading to civilian casualties. They may come to the conclusion that the only way to take the capital will be, as they did in Grozny, clearing it one block at a time using the thermobaric weapons and god knows what else. More recently, the Russians and their Syrian client demonstrated no qualms about targeting civilians, even resorting to chemical weaponry. The Russians also possess large quantities of ballistic missiles and conventional rockets.
So how far would Putin go? Short of nuclear war, as far and as long as it takes to get the job done. The word "lose" is not in this man's vocabulary, although I have a feeling his days may be numbered here as he faces his biggest challenge to date and international sanctions begin to bite, casualties mount, and his generals and the Russian citizenry grow weary of him. Going forward, if I were him I'd sleep with the lights on.
TOS-1 - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
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