How close are we to a Second American Civil War?

[Somerville]

Doing a bit of reading when I have free time - mostly weekends - and I have started to see more articles wondering/warning about the possibility of a Civil War taking place in the United States of America. An obvious part of the problem is White Christian Nationalism as I noted in another thread White Christian Nationalism ‘Is a Fundamental Threat to Democracy’.

One of the older posts I found online was written by an American who lives in Russia - Mark Nuckols

What a Second American Civil War Could Look Like​

Jul 21, 2020


I fear that there is a looming civil war on the horizon. It is not yet inevitable, but all true American patriots must be prepared for the coming battle. And the costs in blood will be heavy. This war will not be fought like the American Revolution or the Civil War of 1861-65, where disciplined armies observed the laws of war and respected civilian lives.


This war will be waged by far-left radicals and their deep-state puppet masters. For them, civilian casualties and massacres will not be moral evils, but merely part and parcel of their larger plan to “reconstruct” America. Their objective is simple: overthrow our constitutional order, destroy our way of life, and deprive us of our freedom, our liberties, our property, and our honor.

A slightly different view about the possibility of a second Civil War was published a couple months after Nuckols piece came out.

Disunited states: Could a second Civil War — and an end to the union — really happen?​

Donald Trump and Attorney General William Barr have also suggested they may use the Insurrection Act to deploy the U.S. military against Americans who dare to protest if Trump somehow manages to steal the 2020 election. Barr has even speculated that Americans who protest the Trump regime should be charged with the little-used crime of sedition.


In total, Trump's followers understand that they have been given full permission to engage in acts of violence against his and their "enemies." This would mark one of the final steps in a campaign of Trump-inspired and commanded right-wing violence that began with the 2016 presidential campaign and is now reaching a crescendo as we head toward the 2020 election.

A 2021 article from the Brookings Institute asked the question - Is the US headed for another Civil War?

A 2021 national survey by pollster John Zogby found a plurality of Americans (46%) believed a future civil war was likely, 43% felt it was unlikely, and 11% were not sure. War seemed more likely for younger people (53%) than older ones (31%), and for those residing in the South (49%) and Central/Great Lakes region (48%) relative to those in the East (39%).

. . . we believe there are several forces pushing many to imagine the unthinkable.

Hot-button issues: Racial equity, gun control, abortion, election legitimacy, climate change, vaccines, masks—the list goes on.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Hopefully not, that would mean that I would have to keep my family out of harms way in any way I can and I am quite comfortable in my current lifestyle.

I feel no need to be in that situation as it would be a danger to the people and things I truly love far more than any political ideology.

 

[Craig234]

In my opinion, a 'civil war' is not possible, though that can change if trump or another like him is elected president, but there is a great chance of more limited 'civil war' of organizations and small groups and individuals doing things.

 

[phoenix2020]

I’m not seeing it. There is a divide, but it’s not between ‘red’ and ‘blue’ states but rather cities versus more rural areas. I’m struggling to understand the mechanics of what such a ‘war’ would look like.

Besides, one ‘side’ is led by an incompetent doofus who couldn’t even run a casino and has a decades-long streak of losing at virtually every single thing he’s touched, from his businesses to his marriages to his party’s control of government. I can’t imagine such an idiot successfully organizing an army. Just imagine, its top generals would be quitting every 3 months to write tell-all books.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

I don't think it will be like the actual civil war with states seceding and shit, but some kind of large scale political violence is almost inevitable at this point. There is a large segment of the population that from here on out will see every Democrat victory as further evidence of voter fraud. They are convinced the election was stolen and also now believe the courts must also be compromised because the Democrats haven't been arrested for treason. So they think voting no longer works and there is no legal recourse, which really only leave violence as an option. As more people become radicalized to the belief that there is no legal way to "take back the government" they will be more and more open to "restoring democracy" by force. I expect right wing militia groups will engage in brown shirt style political terrorism targeting judges, senators, and poll workers. LTGBQ teachers will probably also be at risk. In many cases the police may even side with the militia groups, or not be motivated to stop them.

It might take 4-10 years to get to this point, but I do not see what the off ramp is for people who will no longer accept the results of the opposition winning elections.

 

[phoenix2020]

I don't think it will be like the actual civil war with states seceding and shit, but some kind of large scale political violence is almost inevitable at this point. There is a large segment of the population that from here on out will see every Democrat victory as further evidence of voter fraud. They are convinced the election was stolen and also now believe the courts must also be compromised because the Democrats haven't been arrested for treason. So they think voting no longer works and there is no legal recourse, which really only leave violence as an option. As more people become radicalized to the belief that there is no legal way to "take back the government" they will be more and more open to "restoring democracy" by force. I expect right wing militia groups will engage in brown shirt style political terrorism targeting judges, senators, and poll workers. LTGBQ teachers will probably also be at risk. In many cases the police may even side with the militia groups, or not be motivated to stop them.

It might take 4-10 years to get to this point, but I do not see what the off ramp is for people who will no longer accept the results of the opposition winning elections.

I think this is all true, and unfortunate. The GOP has pushed for “either we win or the election was stolen” to become the norm for years, and there will be consequences for it. There are posters on this site who have already said that if the GOP does not win in 2024, then the only explanation will be electoral fraud. As to off-ramps, they only come when the participating public figures have to deal with the personal, public consequences. Perhaps one solution is to seed a pervasive counter-narrative that if Democrats win in 2024, then the only explanation is that McConnell, DeSantis and their lot were secretly in on the fraud - if they start to feel heat from their own radicalized followers, perhaps they’ll embrace reality and rule of law again?

Otherwise, I’m out of options.

 

[LetsGoBrandon]

Doing a bit of reading when I have free time - mostly weekends - and I have started to see more articles wondering/warning about the possibility of a Civil War taking place in the United States of America. An obvious part of the problem is White Christian Nationalism as I noted in another thread White Christian Nationalism ‘Is a Fundamental Threat to Democracy’.

One of the older posts I found online was written by an American who lives in Russia - Mark Nuckols



A slightly different view about the possibility of a second Civil War was published a couple months after Nuckols piece came out.



A 2021 article from the Brookings Institute asked the question - Is the US headed for another Civil War?

A ton of leftwing nonsense. Basically you are attempting to claim that Christianity and patriotism are a threat to democracy. Personally, I doubt we will ever see a 2nd civil war, at least not a hot one. As for threats to democracy, I can give a few examples. One major threat is the democrats threatening to pack the US Supreme Court if they do not get their way on given legislation and court decisions. Another is the out of control illegal immigration on our southern borders, spurred and enabled by democrats in congress and presently in the White House. The goal is obviously to over time change the voting demographics to favor the democrats and keep them in power into perpetuity. Yet another threat is the democrat party goal to nationalize state and local elections. However again, there will not be a hot Civil War, however at some point if the democrat reach their goals and we end up with permanent one party rule, a succession movement will take hold and succeed.

 

[Noodlegawd]

Doing a bit of reading when I have free time - mostly weekends - and I have started to see more articles wondering/warning about the possibility of a Civil War taking place in the United States of America. An obvious part of the problem is White Christian Nationalism as I noted in another thread White Christian Nationalism ‘Is a Fundamental Threat to Democracy’.

One of the older posts I found online was written by an American who lives in Russia - Mark Nuckols



A slightly different view about the possibility of a second Civil War was published a couple months after Nuckols piece came out.



A 2021 article from the Brookings Institute asked the question - Is the US headed for another Civil War?

Even if you think there's a strong set of conditions for it to happen, it should be easy enough to prevent. Just stop the Federal Government from trying to impose policy on practically every issue, and let the people of each state decide what works for them on most issues.

 

[Goshin]

Nah. As long as there is beer and Netflix, we're too comfortable to start a civil war.

A rise in politically motivated violence is possible... more than possible, we've been seeing it from both sides for some years now. But not outright civil war.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

No official armies, no set borders, no state secessions, no formal declarations...nothing like 1861.
But it's coming, and it's going to more closely resemble the three decade long war in Northern Ireland known as "The Troubles", possibly pockmarked by another couple of overthrow attempts.

The political Right is homogenizing elements from the Rwanda playbook and Putin's now well oiled propaganda machine, and teaching its faithful that Democrats are to be regarded as dehumanized enemies of freedom. The message is clear: Democracy is dangerous, only a dictatorial strongman can save America and all who do not believe must be destroyed, even killed if necessary.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Even if you think there's a strong set of conditions for it to happen, it should be easy enough to prevent. Just stop the Federal Government from trying to impose policy on practically every issue, and let the people of each state decide what works for them on most issues.

The Articles of Confederation, weak federal government that provides a central army for fifty separate sovereign republics.
Yeah, that failed for a reason.
What's next? Everyone gets to be their own country? Sovereign citizenship for everyone?

 

[BlueTex]

In my opinion, a 'civil war' is not possible, though that can change if trump or another like him is elected president, but there is a great chance of more limited 'civil war' of organizations and small groups and individuals doing things.

Very high probability it would be short lived... There are way too few people so inclined who are capable/willing to make the sacrifices needed to have even a remote chance of success.

 

[phoenix2020]

A ton of leftwing nonsense. Basically you are attempting to claim that Christianity and patriotism are a threat to democracy. Personally, I doubt we will ever see a 2nd civil war, at least not a hot one. As for threats to democracy, I can give a few examples. One major threat is the democrats threatening to pack the US Supreme Court if they do not get their way on given legislation and court decisions. Another is the out of control illegal immigration on our southern borders, spurred and enabled by democrats in congress and presently in the White House. The goal is obviously to over time change the voting demographics to favor the democrats and keep them in power into perpetuity. Yet another threat is the democrat party goal to nationalize state and local elections. However again, there will not be a hot Civil War, however at some point if the democrat reach their goals and we end up with permanent one party rule, a succession movement will take hold and succeed.

This post is a good example of the GOP narrative having been deeply rooted - try to take control of elections at a federal level as well as state and local levels…but say that it’s actually Democrats doing it. Try to control demographics to maintain power… but say that it’s actually the Democrats doing it. Seek to maintain permanent one party rule… but say that the Democrats are the ones that want that. You can see in nearly every sentence how the poster’s Other is some kind of demonic evil, out to get him and his, and how it must be eliminated as a threat… right down to the last sentence.

The buzzwords and catch phases I’m looking for from @LetsGoBrandon and his peers (circa 2023) are along these lines:
- “we will not let them do in 2024 what they did to us in 2020”
- “2020 will not be allowed to happen again”
- ”it’s time to take a stand to prevent yet another stolen election”

I am worried that if we start to see Tucker, Trump and the like start pushing statements like the above, that’s when (at least for me) I know we’re headed toward violence.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

Perhaps one solution is to seed a pervasive counter-narrative that if Democrats win in 2024, then the only explanation is that McConnell, DeSantis and their lot were secretly in on the fraud - if they start to feel heat from their own radicalized followers, perhaps they’ll embrace reality and rule of law again?

The current GOP is more than happy to eat their own alive for not falling in line. They all know they either fall in or face the wrath of the radicalized MAGA bloc. Mike Pence went from beloved by MAGA to people chanting "hang Mike Pence" within days. Sadly if they haven't come to their senses yet I am doubtful they will change course.

 

[Buckeyes85]

A ton of leftwing nonsense. Basically you are attempting to claim that Christianity and patriotism are a threat to democracy. Personally, I doubt we will ever see a 2nd civil war, at least not a hot one. As for threats to democracy, I can give a few examples. One major threat is the democrats threatening to pack the US Supreme Court if they do not get their way on given legislation and court decisions. Another is the out of control illegal immigration on our southern borders, spurred and enabled by democrats in congress and presently in the White House. The goal is obviously to over time change the voting demographics to favor the democrats and keep them in power into perpetuity. Yet another threat is the democrat party goal to nationalize state and local elections. However again, there will not be a hot Civil War, however at some point if the democrat reach their goals and we end up with permanent one party rule, a succession movement will take hold and succeed.

How does the supposed illegal immigration problem lead to a change in voting demographics given that illegal immigrants can't vote? As for the attempts to "pack the supreme court" by the democrats that is another swing and a miss. First, there is no set number for the supreme court, and remind me again which party refused to even permit a vote on a nominee in hopes they could win the next election and appoint their own fringe right candidate?

 

[phoenix2020]

The current GOP is more than happy to eat their own alive for not falling in line. They all know they either fall in or face the wrath of the radicalized MAGA bloc. Mike Pence went from beloved by MAGA to people chanting "hang Mike Pence" within days. Sadly if they haven't come to their senses yet I am doubtful they will change course.

Agreed. Hence my idea, shaky as it is, that the only way out of this mess is to shlock ‘narratives’ that cause the GOP to devour its own. As you said, they’ll demonize their own children and spouses out of loyalty to their cause.

 

[Goshin]

I see a lot of you attributing to "the Other" many of the same faults that apply to "your own".

That's part of the problem we're having. The Other Side isn't seen simply as wrong or mistaken, but evil.

I can remember when we were not this polarized and hateful.

 

[Noodlegawd]

The Articles of Confederation, weak federal government that provides a central army for fifty separate sovereign republics.
Yeah, that failed for a reason.
What's next? Everyone gets to be their own country? Sovereign citizenship for everyone?

That's not what I was referring to at all.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

That's not what I was referring to at all.

That may not have been your intent but if I have eggs, flour, yeast, a pinch of salt and some water, it's likely I'm going to wind up with some kind of dough if I mix them together.
If I put it in the oven, one might even call it bread.

"Let the people of each state decide what works for them on most issues" boils down to a federal government that is unable to enact uniform policy for all Americans.
Take that far enough and you DO end up WITH fifty separate sovereign republics, or as some like to call it, BALKANIZATION.

I'm tired of all the screeching about how evil the Federal Government is, I really am.
Uncle Sam has his share of problems but if you want Uncle Sam to be better, we need to make him better by making him out of better stuff.
Uncle Sam can be quite the helpful entity, capable of doing enormous good for people. He certainly doesn't need to be in charge of everything but it's healthy to have a consistent overall approach
to important issues, like VOTING, just as one example.

Sorry, I am not happy with the 50 separate approaches being taken regarding elections. Some states are playing with loaded weapons and they know it, and we know it.

 

[Rexedgar]

I see a lot of you attributing to "the Other" many of the same faults that apply to "your own".

That's part of the problem we're having. The Other Side isn't seen simply as wrong or mistaken, but evil.

I can remember when we were not this polarized and hateful.

Not sure if I agree with the last line. We are all just hooked up to a steady stream of information. We do seem to still cherish our weekends.The rabble-rousers have larger and farther reaching megaphones, today. ……..and shame used to be a thing.

 

[Noodlegawd]

That may not have been your intent but if I have eggs, flour, yeast, a pinch of salt and some water, it's likely I'm going to wind up with some kind of dough if I mix them together.
If I put it in the oven, one might even call it bread.

"Let the people of each state decide what works for them on most issues" boils down to a federal government that is unable to enact uniform policy for all Americans.
Take that far enough and you DO end up WITH fifty separate sovereign republics, or as some like to call it, BALKANIZATION.

Nope, that's nonsense. You're assuming that everything has to be on one extreme or the other.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Nope, that's nonsense. You're assuming that everything has to be on one extreme or the other.

You may want to raise your head and look around... because that's ALREADY happening and we know what some of the causes are.
Balkanization is clearly evident right now.
You guys have had almost 45 years, your ideas don't work.

 

[Somerville]

No official armies, no set borders, no state secessions, no formal declarations...nothing like 1861.
But it's coming, and it's going to more closely resemble the three decade long war in Northern Ireland known as "The Troubles", possibly pockmarked by another couple of overthrow attempts.

The political Right is homogenizing elements from the Rwanda playbook and Putin's now well oiled propaganda machine, and teaching its faithful that Democrats are to be regarded as dehumanized enemies of freedom. The message is clear: Democracy is dangerous, only a dictatorial strongman can save America and all who do not believe must be destroyed, even killed if necessary.

HA! Good call in relating the potential problems in the USA to The Troubles of Northern Ireland. Another one of those librul academics, Barbara Walter, poli-sci professor at Univ of Calif, San Diego, has a book out - How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them.

Is the US really heading for a second civil war? ​

Walter previously served on the political instability task force, an advisory panel to the CIA, which had a model to predict political violence in countries all over the world – except the US itself. Yet with the rise of Trump’s racist demagoguery, Walter, who has studied civil wars for 30 years, recognized telltale signs on her own doorstep.

One was the emergence of a government that is neither fully democratic nor fully autocratic –an “anocracy”. The other is a landscape devolving into identity politics where parties no longer organise around ideology or specific policies but along racial, ethnic or religious lines.

Not even the gloomiest pessimist is predicting a rerun of the 1861-65 civil war with a blue army and red army fighting pitched battles. “It would look more like Northern Ireland and what Britain experienced, where it’s more of an insurgency,” Walter continued. “It would probably be more decentralized than Northern Ireland because we have such a large country and there are so many militias all around the country.”

“They would turn to unconventional tactics, in particular terrorism, maybe even a little bit of guerrilla warfare, where they would target federal buildings, synagogues, places with large crowds. The strategy would be one of intimidation and to scare the American public into believing that the federal government isn’t capable of taking care of them.”​

A 2020 plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic governor of Michigan, could be a sign of things to come. Walter suggests that opposition figures, moderate Republicans and judges deemed unsympathetic might all become potential assassination targets.

 

[LetsGoBrandon]

How does the supposed illegal immigration problem lead to a change in voting demographics given that illegal immigrants can't vote?

Try thinking a bit more deeply on that one. The illegal immigration issue is not new. It's just worse then it has ever been. In the 1980s the democrats promised President Reagan funding and legislation to get control of our southern borders if he would agree to amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants already here. Reagan agreed (later regretted). Amnesty came about, control of the borders never did. Ultimately enough of those illegals with amnesty became citizens and voted...turned the red state of California into a blue state.. Every since, the democrats have been pushing comprehensive immigration bills that would repeat what Reagan fell for. GWB was about to fall for it, however pulled back off as Americans jammed congressional switchboards inopposition.

and remind me again which party refused to even permit a vote on a nominee in hopes they could win the next election and appoint their own fringe right candidate?

McConnell was merely taking the advice of this guy:

 

[Noodlegawd]

You may want to raise your head and look around... because that's ALREADY happening and we know what some of the causes are.
Balkanization is clearly evident right now.
You guys have had almost 45 years, your ideas don't work.

You guys? Who are my guys?

Did it ever occur to you that the supposed balkanization you see is a reaction to Democrats from California trying to impose their values on Republicans from Mississippi, for really no good reason?