How big will this year's deficit be?

[Conservative]

DN has the strange notion that staying above average is easy, but getting to average is hard. It's completely upside down of how things actually work, but he is locked into it.

What I have found here is that there is a cult like support for left wing rhetoric and no interest in researching official data and results are only what the left wants them to be

It doesn't matter that Democrats controlled the Congress from January 2007 to January 2011 thus the purse strings and legislative process, everything that happened was Bush's fault

It doesn't matter that Democrats refused to give Bush spending authority through March 2009 by approving his budget, Bush is responsible for the 2009 deficits

It doesn't matter that the percentage change for Obama and Trump are similar as context doesn't matter as one was due mostly to gov't spending and the other to consumer spending

It doesn't matter what results the country got out of the Obama and Trump debt as the bottom line is all that matters.

The cult like attitude of the left is stunning and generally a waste of time refuting as they have no interest in facts

 

[Jay59]

DN has this crazy idea that it's easier to have a good economy when you start with a good economy. DN just doesn't realize what a great job Trump has done. He even thinks that the deficit Trump promised to reduce actually grew under his leadership.

We agree. It is a crazy idea and exactly wrong. It is much easier to get a bad economy to improve than to get a decent economy to get better. Ask any Econ professor.

What I have found here is that there is a cult like support for left wing rhetoric and no interest in researching official data and results are only what the left wants them to be

Don't kid yourself. It is a cult.

It doesn't matter that Democrats controlled the Congress from January 2007 to January 2011 thus the purse strings and legislative process, everything that happened was Bush's fault It doesn't matter that Democrats refused to give Bush spending authority through March 2009 by approving his budget, Bush is responsible for the 2009 deficits It doesn't matter that the percentage change for Obama and Trump are similar as context doesn't matter as one was due mostly to gov't spending and the other to consumer spending It doesn't matter what results the country got out of the Obama and Trump debt as the bottom line is all that matters. The cult like attitude of the left is stunning and generally a waste of time refuting as they have no interest in facts

There is more. There is a cadre of professional agitators that wait for a genuine protest to pop up, so that they can rush it to make it a national story. We saw it in Ferguson, Baltimore, Duke Lacrosse, Occupy Wall Street, many others. Other events get passed over because the events don't fit the narrative, eg the Twin Peaks incident in Waco, TX. Black lives apparently matter more than Hispanic lives.

What makes this round so different is the escalation in violence. In someways it reminds me of the anti-Vietnam bombings in the early 1970s.

 

[JohnfrmClevelan]

If there are more dollars chasing the same amount of food, that results in higher prices.
Temporary food shortages caused by shutdowns in food processing plants results in temporary increase in prices due to limited supply and continued demand.

If the money supply continues to grow, we'll have more dollars chasing the same amount of goods, resulting in inflation.

It's basic economics.

Growth in the money supply generally happens in order to invest in growth, so there is more money chasing more production.

Also, money is retired from the active economy by savings (including bond sales), debt repayment, and debt defaults (indirectly lowers the money supply by lowering bank equity).

 

[Tbird19482]

Again, has everything to do with economic policies which you want to ignore. Did Obama create the promised shovel ready jobs taxpayers with his stimulus program?

Answer the question and quit promoting the love affair you had with Obama

LOL!!!
you are not as smart as you think you are IF you knew anything about recessions and the employment numbers you would know ( as I have told you many times ) that employment rates keep going down after a recession is declared over ( unemployment numbers keep going up ) for several months,
the stimulus Obama signed may not created any NEW jobs because it was signed before the recovery started and as I have said many times before Unemployment keeps going up for several months AFTER the recovery starts
so what the stimulus did was keep the Unemployment rate from going up more then the 10% it went to.
it could have gone up to over 12 % if he hadn't signed it , and I am sure YOU would have loved that if it did.
so there was many jobs created by the stimulus Obama signed ( you would never give him credit for )
what you are looking at is the Unemployment numbers and not finding out just how many jobs it did create
again you wouldn't give Obama any credit for anything even IF he had a better ( faster ) more robust economy then Trump had
have a nice day

 

[Conservative]

LOL!!!
you are not as smart as you think you are IF you knew anything about recessions and the employment numbers you would know ( as I have told you many times ) that employment rates keep going down after a recession is declared over ( unemployment numbers keep going up ) for several months,
the stimulus Obama signed may not created any NEW jobs because it was signed before the recovery started and as I have said many times before Unemployment keeps going up for several months AFTER the recovery starts
so what the stimulus did was keep the Unemployment rate from going up more then the 10% it went to.
it could have gone up to over 12 % if he hadn't signed it , and I am sure YOU would have loved that if it did.
so there was many jobs created by the stimulus Obama signed ( you would never give him credit for )
what you are looking at is the Unemployment numbers and not finding out just how many jobs it did create
again you wouldn't give Obama any credit for anything even IF he had a better ( faster ) more robust economy then Trump had
have a nice day

Here is the problem, you cannot grasp the reality that recessions are affected by economic policies, Obama's failed, and Reagan's succeeded. You totally ignore that fact

Obama promised new job creation and that never happened, his results are on display that you continue to ignore, your love affair is making you look foolish. You keep focused on the recession and not the policies that generated the results, that is pure liberal blame game totally out of touch with reality

 

[Tbird19482]

Here is the problem, you cannot grasp the reality that recessions are affected by economic policies, Obama's failed, and Reagan's succeeded. You totally ignore that fact

Obama promised new job creation and that never happened, his results are on display that you continue to ignore, your love affair is making you look foolish. You keep focused on the recession and not the policies that generated the results, that is pure liberal blame game totally out of touch with reality

Just what did you think kept the unemployment rate from going even higher? 11% 12% or more
it was those jobs that WERE created by that stimulus plan
You are a waste of time talking to
and you have the gall to call people on the left names and you do the exact same thing they do
Have a nice night

 

[99percenter]

Again, has everything to do with economic policies which you want to ignore. Did Obama create the promised shovel ready jobs taxpayers with his stimulus program?

Answer the question and quit promoting the love affair you had with Obama

obama took bushs 10% unemployment and lowered it to 4.7

trump raised it to 30%.

Those are trump results.

 

[Kushinator]

If there are more dollars chasing the same amount of food, that results in higher prices.

In the long run. In the short run, prices are driven entirely by supply and demand.

Temporary food shortages caused by shutdowns in food processing plants results in temporary increase in prices due to limited supply and continued demand.

In the short run. That is what we see today.

If the money supply continues to grow, we'll have more dollars chasing the same amount of goods, resulting in inflation.

In the long run.

 

[rahl]

DN has this crazy idea that it's easier to have a good economy when you start with a good economy. DN just doesn't realize what a great job Trump has done. He even thinks that the deficit Trump promised to reduce actually grew under his leadership.

Uh, the deficit he promised to reduce doubled under his leadership.

 

[Conservative]

Just what did you think kept the unemployment rate from going even higher? 11% 12% or more
it was those jobs that WERE created by that stimulus plan
You are a waste of time talking to
and you have the gall to call people on the left names and you do the exact same thing they do
Have a nice night

LOL, liberal justification, things could have been worse?? That is liberal logic to justify the worst recovery from a major recession in modern history. Jobs created by the stimulus? You post a link that isn't supported by bls.gov official data, how do you explain 4 million fewer employed in 2009 AFTER the shovel ready jobs stimulus bill was signed, February 2009(138 million), 1 million returning(139 million) in 2010, 2 more million(141 million) in 2011 and call that a successful stimulus program?

The description of people like you is accurate, poorly informed, ignorant of official data, clueless on the budget, married to a fraudulent ideology, and having a love affair with a liberal President who didn't understand the private sector. Only a radical leftist can justify the worst recovery by ignoring the failures of the Obama economic policies by claiming the results could have been worse.

Economic policies generate results, Obama's generated massive debt through failure to get the promised taxpayers and by spending to prop up the public sector, Trump's debt comes from increases in debt service and entitlement spending. You really buy the liberal message and that doesn't do a thing for your credibility

 

[Conservative]

Uh, the deficit he promised to reduce doubled under his leadership.

Care to post official data supporting that claim?

 

[jonny5]

Again if we have a Republican President and something bad happens he never has anything to do with it BUT if something good happens he had everything to do with it
and IF we have a Dem. President and something bad happens it is all his fault and IF something good happens it has to have been somebody else that made it happen
and like you said the debt under a Republican President is different then the debt under a Dem. President even if it was used to get us out of a recession and back on track and the debt under a Republican President is used to reduce the taxes on the rich and make sure large Corps. don't pay a cent in FIT on millions / Billions of US profits
Have a nice day

Arent you tired of this talking point? Both parties are hypocrites and use double standards. Come up with something new.

 

[jonny5]

obama took bushs 10% unemployment and lowered it to 4.7

trump raised it to 30%.

Those are trump results.

Your argument is that Trump created a global pandemic? Do tell. What would you have done different to fight the pandemic and keep everyone employed.

 

[jonny5]

you mean to say that the touted tax cuts only amounted to 50 B?

I dont understand. We're talking about debt.

-In 2018 the deficit increased by about 115bn.
-Revenue increased by 15bn
-spending increased by 127bn

And I posted above where that debt came from. Mainly interest and social spending, followed by defense. So how are those dividends to the rich and powerful? Just opposite, social spending goes primarily to the poor. Though I supposed you could argue theyre then giving that money back to the rich when they spend on healthcare for example.

 

[99percenter]

Your argument is that Trump created a global pandemic? Do tell. What would you have done different to fight the pandemic and keep everyone employed.

Trump had two months to prepare. The results of the trump virus are on him.

 

[rahl]

Care to post official data supporting that claim?

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/include/usgs_chartDp01f.png

2016 budget deficit $585 billion
2020 budget deficit $ 1.8 trillion (before covid relief) $3.8 trillion after covid relief.

 

[Tbird19482]

LOL, liberal justification, things could have been worse?? That is liberal logic to justify the worst recovery from a major recession in modern history. Jobs created by the stimulus? You post a link that isn't supported by bls.gov official data, how do you explain 4 million fewer employed in 2009 AFTER the shovel ready jobs stimulus bill was signed, February 2009(138 million), 1 million returning(139 million) in 2010, 2 more million(141 million) in 2011 and call that a successful stimulus program?

The description of people like you is accurate, poorly informed, ignorant of official data, clueless on the budget, married to a fraudulent ideology, and having a love affair with a liberal President who didn't understand the private sector. Only a radical leftist can justify the worst recovery by ignoring the failures of the Obama economic policies by claiming the results could have been worse.

Economic policies generate results, Obama's generated massive debt through failure to get the promised taxpayers and by spending to prop up the public sector, Trump's debt comes from increases in debt service and entitlement spending. You really buy the liberal message and that doesn't do a thing for your credibility

and you only post numbers that do not show what really happened
AGAIN the stimulus plan was signed into law before the recession was over and AGAIN it is a fact that employment LAGS in a recession / depression ( was 8% when the recession was said to be over and kept going up to just over 10% in the fall, and as the article says if we didn't have the stimulus it would have gone higher yet )
so the stimulus may not have created any new jobs by your numbers but it did and if it hadn't the unemployment rate would have gone up between .7% and 1.8%
or between 1.4 to 3.3 Million jobs
Did the Stimulus Create Jobs? - FactCheck.org
read the 3rd par. in the Analysis section , that info comes from the CBO
so the stimulus DID create jobs
You are just so right wing brainwashed you can't give Obama any credit for anything
Have a nice day

 

[Tbird19482]

LOL, liberal justification, things could have been worse?? That is liberal logic to justify the worst recovery from a major recession in modern history. Jobs created by the stimulus? You post a link that isn't supported by bls.gov official data, how do you explain 4 million fewer employed in 2009 AFTER the shovel ready jobs stimulus bill was signed, February 2009(138 million), 1 million returning(139 million) in 2010, 2 more million(141 million) in 2011 and call that a successful stimulus program?

The description of people like you is accurate, poorly informed, ignorant of official data, clueless on the budget, married to a fraudulent ideology, and having a love affair with a liberal President who didn't understand the private sector. Only a radical leftist can justify the worst recovery by ignoring the failures of the Obama economic policies by claiming the results could have been worse.

Economic policies generate results, Obama's generated massive debt through failure to get the promised taxpayers and by spending to prop up the public sector, Trump's debt comes from increases in debt service and entitlement spending. You really buy the liberal message and that doesn't do a thing for your credibility

Oh and one more thing
YOU don't think Obama had to deal with increasing debt servicing on top of the growing unemployment numbers
you are comparing two different things in two different times
Have a nice day

 

[Tbird19482]

Arent you tired of this talking point? Both parties are hypocrites and use double standards. Come up with something new.

well trying to get anything through Cons. head can take years
and I like a lot of other people on here are starting to give up
Have a nice day

 

[Conservative]

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/include/usgs_chartDp01f.png

2016 budget deficit $585 billion
2020 budget deficit $ 1.8 trillion (before covid relief) $3.8 trillion after covid relief.

Yes, do you have a point? How much of that is under the control of the President? Did Trump increase employment thus taxpayers 6.6 million in three years? What was the interest rate in 2016 that went to the U.S. Debt

 

[Conservative]

and you only post numbers that do not show what really happened
AGAIN the stimulus plan was signed into law before the recession was over and AGAIN it is a fact that employment LAGS in a recession / depression ( was 8% when the recession was said to be over and kept going up to just over 10% in the fall, and as the article says if we didn't have the stimulus it would have gone higher yet )
so the stimulus may not have created any new jobs by your numbers but it did and if it hadn't the unemployment rate would have gone up between .7% and 1.8%
or between 1.4 to 3.3 Million jobs
Did the Stimulus Create Jobs? - FactCheck.org
read the 3rd par. in the Analysis section , that info comes from the CBO
so the stimulus DID create jobs
You are just so right wing brainwashed you can't give Obama any credit for anything
Have a nice day

And yet, the following, care to explain how your post supports the official bls.gov data? Why would anyone give Obama credit for the worst recovery from a major recession in history? You point to the severity of a recession that didn't even impact you or most Americans totally ignoring the policies generated that created the poor recovery

Population growth, strong Obama economic policies and we didn't get back to the pre recession levels until 2014, that is failure

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Original Data Value

Series Id: LNS12000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Years: 2008 to 2019

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 146378 146156 146086 146132 145908 145737 145532 145203 145076 144802 144100 143369
2009 142152 141640 140707 140656 140248 140009 139901 139492 138818 138432 138659 138013
2010 138438 138581 138751 139297 139241 139141 139179 139438 139396 139119 139044 139301
2011 139250 139394 139639 139586 139624 139384 139524 139942 140183 140368 140826 140902
2012 141584 141858 142036 141899 142206 142391 142292 142291 143044 143431 143333 143330
2013 143292 143362 143316 143635 143882 143999 144264 144326 144418 143537 144479 144778
2014 145150 145134 145648 145667 145825 146247 146399 146530 146778 147427 147404 147615 1.9
2015 148150 148053 148122 148491 148802 148765 148815 149175 148853 149270 149506 150164
2016 150622 150934 151146 150963 151074 151104 151450 151766 151877 151949 152150 152276
2017 152128 152417 152958 153150 152920 153176 153456 153591 154399 153847 153945 154065
2018 154482 155213 155160 155216 155539 155592 155964 155604 156069 156582 156803 156945
2019 156694 156949 156748 156645 156758 157005 157288 157878 158269 158510 158593 158803
2020 158700 158759

 

[Conservative]

Oh and one more thing
YOU don't think Obama had to deal with increasing debt servicing on top of the growing unemployment numbers
you are comparing two different things in two different times
Have a nice day

With zero interest rates what was the increase in debt service? When did the debt service become the fourth largest budget item? You are so poorly informed it is scary

 

[jonny5]

Trump had two months to prepare. The results of the trump virus are on him.

So again, its your argument that the Presidents job is to fight a global pandemic while keeping everyone employed in a global economy. And he could have done this all by himself in two months?

Interesting. So what would you have done different to, for example, keep China from shutting down all their factories that supply US businesses?

 

[jonny5]

well trying to get anything through Cons. head can take years
and I like a lot of other people on here are starting to give up
Have a nice day

So give up. I put him on ignore list a long time ago. Do the same and come up with an real argument, not this lame 'republicans have double standards' meme. We have 25 trillion in debt after this pandemic. Does it matter what party is in power?

 

[Kushinator]

Cheap cop-out. You claim to be read, but this is one of the most influential economists in the country right now. He has a simple paradigm for how to view the situation we have created. I want you honest assessment of the paradigm.

Last chance, give a real answer.

:lamo

I'm not having this discussion with Jason Furman and will not argue your interpretations of another person's statements via proxy. If you have an point relative to my statement regarding the output gap, stimulus, the ballooning deficit or debt... by all means. Judging from our exchanges thus far, i am not hoping for much.