Here is the map:
New in this edition of the map:
Other Notes:
New in this edition of the map:
- Continued to add unopposed candidates
- Added some polls that appeared to be missing from mid-July
- IA-2 is even
- CT-5 is even thanks to a Republican Congressional Leadership Fund poll.
- Lauren Boebert's district finally comes online and is a safe R.
- CA-9 is even
Other Notes:
- By the beginning of August, Republicans took the lead.
- By August 29th, Democrats had battled back but still trailed.
- The main conclusion I reached from watching the map develop was that it is too early to tell whether the Republican leads in the polled seats would hold up.
- The secondary conclusion I reached is that there are too many conflicting polls. I saw one where a poll showed the Democrat up by a slim lead and, the next day, a poll showed the Republican up by eight.
- Finally, there were many "foolish" polls, where candidate-sponsored polling showed the other side up by more than +5. In one such case, the poll showed the other side up by double digits. While the intent is to spark the supporters of the trailing candidate to show up, the larger the margin, the more likely it is that it will de-energize the supporters, causing a self-inflicted wound.