With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.
I still don't see it, though. Not when the world is in a slowdown.Perhaps...unless he "wins" the trade war. In which case all the tariffs will lift or revert, trade will flow again...only on a more even keel, and the economy will "boom."
Try to look on the bright side of life.
With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.
With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.
QE? Yeah, 0% and even negative rates might be considered 'easing"! That's what's scary, and what I was referring to.The ECB is QE'ing like mad and it isn't helping there much either.
QE? Yeah, 0% and even negative rates might be considered 'easing"! That's what's scary, and what I was referring to.
Interestingly enough, today we've got an excellent jobs report including a revised AUG report, showing the American economy is at least somewhat decoupled from the global economy. Whether it's truly decoupled, or only decoupled enough to allow the slowdown to lag in it's effect in America, remains to be seen. I believe it's the latter.Negative rates aren't helping push GDP in europe either. This is the first real test of globalization, even more so than the great recession. The entire planet is easing right on into the liquidity trap only instead of people hoarding capital, governments are.
The current growth rate is 2% annually. Predictions for 2020 vary between 1.9-3.2% dependent on trade war resolution and election results. Lower estimates for a democratic win. There are no recession indicators on the near horizon for the US. China is slowing down because of an aging population and the one child policy, overall decreasing population. European recession indicators show a short lifespan except for Germany where excessive immigration has led to major tax increases.
Interestingly enough, today we've got an excellent jobs report including a revised AUG report, showing the American economy is at least somewhat decoupled from the global economy. Whether it's truly decoupled, or only decoupled enough to allow the slowdown to lag in it's effect in America, remains to be seen. I believe it's the latter.
The Chinese got rid of the one child policy years ago.
Agreed. The question is: Are we uniquely safe (& isolated)? Or, are we only decoupled enough to temporarily delay the inevitable?I believe we are the last safe harbor left on the planet right now. Or at least the dollar is....
Agreed. The question is: Are we uniquely safe (& isolated)? Or, are we only decoupled enough to temporarily delay the inevitable?
Agreed. The question is: Are we uniquely safe (& isolated)? Or, are we only decoupled enough to temporarily delay the inevitable?
Three years, actually. Going to be some time for the three year olds to affect the economy...
one-child policy | Definition & Facts | Britannica.com
Agreed. The question is: Are we uniquely safe (& isolated)? Or, are we only decoupled enough to temporarily delay the inevitable?
I think we are uniquely safe in that our government is so completely dysfunctional right now it would be difficult to build a consensus on anything that would screw up things worse. A boat run ashore is at least stable and predictable.
I think we are uniquely safe in that our government is so completely dysfunctional right now it would be difficult to build a consensus on anything that would screw up things worse. A boat run ashore is at least stable and predictable.
Three years, actually. Going to be some time for the three year olds to affect the economy...
one-child policy | Definition & Facts | Britannica.com
The Chinese got rid of the one child policy years ago.
I believe we are the last safe harbor left on the planet right now. Or at least the dollar is....
I think we are uniquely safe in that our government is so completely dysfunctional right now it would be difficult to build a consensus on anything that would screw up things worse. A boat run ashore is at least stable and predictable.
Hah! :mrgreen:I think we are uniquely safe in that our government is so completely dysfunctional right now it would be difficult to build a consensus on anything that would screw up things worse. A boat run ashore is at least stable and predictable.
I think this is a good post, m'lord! :thumbs:The US is running federal deficit of 4.9% of GDP, the economy is growing at about a 2% level. Combined with still quite low interest rates, one can safely assume the US is being stimulated by government economic intervention (if deficit spending was eliminated the US would likely go into a mid size recession)
Debt, at all levels will be able to keep the US economy "going" until one of the 3 (government, corporate, or personal) decides enough is enough and stops taking on more. That decision is likely to come from lenders rather than the groups taking on the loans. Of course the government can issue their own debt without much worry
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?