Hillary Clinton has a slim lead over Trump. In Georgia.

[beerftw]

You make a good point about the behavior of campaigns.

A couple things to think about:

1. This is not the last second, yet the Hillary campaign is pumping up her polls. That suggests a lot of worry on her part.

2. I don't know about Hillary's ad spending in swing states, though I've heard she has suspended ads in Colorado. But I've heard it said that she has increased ad spending in what should be safe states...blue states. If that is true, that is a very bad sign.

On the bolded from past election memory it likely means she has colorado in the bag, and the states she is pumping money into she is either losing or is barely ahead and it is too close for her to take a chance.

 

[Mycroft]

When you say it's close are you talking about nationally or in Georgia.


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I'm following the topic of this thread. What are YOU talking about.

 

[Mycroft]

On the bolded from past election memory it likely means she has colorado in the bag, and the states she is pumping money into she is either losing or is barely ahead and it is too close for her to take a chance.

So...

The purported trouble that forum members apply to Trump because of a bogus poll very well could be plaguing Hillary because of increased ad spending in her safe states.

 

[beerftw]

So...

The purported trouble that forum members apply to Trump because of a bogus poll very well could be plaguing Hillary because of increased ad spending in her safe states.

The polls do seem really fishy to me, since hardcore liberal polls have her much lower than a hardcore conservative pollster(fox news) but I would not say they are bogus.

The politicians crunch all numbers and poll from a very wide variety and constantly, while national pollsters tend to use landline telephones, and small sample sizes. Some intentionally poll biased like reuters, rasmeussen fox nbc wsj etc.

 

[roughdraft274]

I'm following the topic of this thread. What are YOU talking about.

That's not an answer. And it's a very simple question. If you're saying it's close in Georgia then I'd agree and argue that this is astounding good news hot Hillary and terrible news for trump given Georgia's voting history. If you are saying it's close nationally then you disagree with every leading polling expert out there.


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[Mycroft]

That's not an answer. And it's a very simple question. If you're saying it's close in Georgia then I'd agree and argue that this is astounding good news hot Hillary and terrible news for trump given Georgia's voting history. If you are saying it's close nationally then you disagree with every leading polling expert out there.


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I've already said that the info...other than that bogus poll...indicates that Georgia is close...with Trump having the edge. Whether that indicates good news for Hillary or not is a matter of your opinion. I don't share your opinion. Furthermore, voting history...like investment history...does not guarantee positive results.

In regard to nationally, we have the same problem. The bogus national polls skew any averages in favor of Hillary and are pretty much worthless for consideration. If you take away those bogus polls, then again they are very close. The edge fluctuates between the two.

Beyond my dislike for these bogus poll tactics, I agree with others who say that making a big deal out of polls...at this point in the election cycle...is useless. You, of course, might have other thoughts about that.

 

[upsideguy]

An outlier, but not a big one - other recent polling has also at tied, and Trump has been soft there since May.




Well done, Trump primary voters. You've put up a man so atrocious he's going to force a GOP candidate to spend resources (if Trump is capable of doing so) defending Georgia. Georgia is a possible swing state.

...and Arizona. RCP has Clinton winning Arizona at this writing....

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House

I've already said that the info...other than that bogus poll...indicates that Georgia is close...with Trump having the edge. Whether that indicates good news for Hillary or not is a matter of your opinion. I don't share your opinion. Furthermore, voting history...like investment history...does not guarantee positive results.

In regard to nationally, we have the same problem. The bogus national polls skew any averages in favor of Hillary and are pretty much worthless for consideration. If you take away those bogus polls, then again they are very close. The edge fluctuates between the two.

Beyond my dislike for these bogus poll tactics, I agree with others who say that making a big deal out of polls...at this point in the election cycle...is useless. You, of course, might have other thoughts about that.

Not really. Most 'current' polls show a Clinton landslide

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Princeton Election Consortium Electoral Map

Full disclosure: While I do not believe the polls mean much until after the first debate, I will not let you have this point. Current data suggests Trump is going to be shallacked.

 

[roughdraft274]

I've already said that the info...other than that bogus poll...indicates that Georgia is close...with Trump having the edge. Whether that indicates good news for Hillary or not is a matter of your opinion. I don't share your opinion. Furthermore, voting history...like investment history...does not guarantee positive results.

In regard to nationally, we have the same problem. The bogus national polls skew any averages in favor of Hillary and are pretty much worthless for consideration. If you take away those bogus polls, then again they are very close. The edge fluctuates between the two.

Beyond my dislike for these bogus poll tactics, I agree with others who say that making a big deal out of polls...at this point in the election cycle...is useless. You, of course, might have other thoughts about that.

It's my OPINION that a state that has been reliably republican by wide margins for two decades is polling as a very tight race is good for Clinton?

I just don't understand the denial about this. I'm not saying she's gonna win Georgia but it's obviously good news for Hillary.

 

[Mycroft]

It's my OPINION that a state that has been reliably republican by wide margins for two decades is polling as a very tight race is good for Clinton?

I just don't understand the denial about this. I'm not saying she's gonna win Georgia but it's obviously good news for Hillary.

As I said, voting history means very little.

My own state, over the last 26 years, has gone from true red to very blue-tinted.

 

[upsideguy]

It's my OPINION that a state that has been reliably republican by wide margins for two decades is polling as a very tight race is good for Clinton?

I just don't understand the denial about this. I'm not saying she's gonna win Georgia but it's obviously good news for Hillary.

Why its good news for Hillary is that Georgia being a battleground state means the GOP must spend money to defend it. When money is spent defending Georgia there is less for an offense.

 

[Your Star]

An outlier, but not a big one - other recent polling has also at tied, and Trump has been soft there since May.




Well done, Trump primary voters. You've put up a man so atrocious he's going to force a GOP candidate to spend resources (if Trump is capable of doing so) defending Georgia. Georgia is a possible swing state.

First, this is awesome. I didn't think I could see Georgia become blue this soon.

Second, goddamn it, does this mean I have to vote for Clinton now? :lol: Voting as a liberal in Georgia has been a largely symbolic gesture, and I was rather looking forward to writing in Bernie, or voting for Jill Stein, or even Gary Johnson for the hell of it. Anyone other than Ronald Reagan in a pantsuit.

 

[Mycroft]

Why its good news for Hillary is that Georgia being a battleground state means the GOP must spend money to defend it. When money is spent defending Georgia there is less for an offense.

Spend money??

You realize you are talking about Trump, right? He's got money coming out the...whatever.

 

[cpwill]

First, this is awesome. I didn't think I could see Georgia become blue this soon.

Second, goddamn it, does this mean I have to vote for Clinton now? [emoji38] Voting as a liberal in Georgia has been a largely symbolic gesture, and I was rather looking forward to writing in Bernie, or voting for Jill Stein, or even Gary Johnson for the hell of it. Anyone other than Ronald Reagan in a pantsuit.

I object. Ronald Reagan had principles and deeply held beliefs. They may not be yours, but he had them. Nixon is a better analogy.

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[cpwill]

Spend money??

You realize you are talking about Trump, right? He's got money coming out the...whatever.

Uh. He does? Cause Hillary has ads running in Georgia. Trump, I understand, does not. He's significantly under-raising Romney, and the ad buys he's been able to make are pathetic.

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[Your Star]

I object. Ronald Reagan had principles and deeply held beliefs. They may not be yours, but he had them. Nixon is a better analogy.

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Well, when I compare someone to Reagan, it's not a good thing. So yeah, I'm gonna keep my analogy.

 

[Your Star]

Uh. He does? Cause Hillary has ads running in Georgia. Trump, I understand, does not. He's significantly under-raising Romney, and the ad buys he's been able to make are pathetic.

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I can confirm I have seen Hilary ads, but no ads for Donny Jingles.

 

[cpwill]

I can confirm I have seen Hilary ads, but no ads for Donny Jingles.

Yeah. Trump A) has much, much less money than he claims, and B) is super stingy with it.

Have fun, Trumpkins! He told you he'd self fund? [emoji38] [emoji14]opcorn:

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[Mycroft]

Uh. He does? Cause Hillary has ads running in Georgia. Trump, I understand, does not. He's significantly under-raising Romney, and the ad buys he's been able to make are pathetic.

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Ummm...

1. Trump doesn't do ads. At least not the traditional way.

2. Trump doesn't raise money for himself. He raises it for the Party.

 

[roughdraft274]

As I said, voting history means very little.

My own state, over the last 26 years, has gone from true red to very blue-tinted.

Gradually.

Anytime you have to add a state to the "close but we have to win" column it's not a good thing.


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[cpwill]

Ummm...

1. Trump doesn't do ads. At least not the traditional way.

He does, actually. He just doesnt do very many of them. This worked during the primary, when the media loved him because of the ratings he brought, because they allowed him to dominate the airwaves with unpurchased time.

2. Trump doesn't raise money for himself. He raises it for the Party.

Trump does raise money for himself. In fact, he was just bragging about how much raised last month (though it was less than Romney did). I get his campaign emails asking for money, see his Facebook ads asking for money, and it turns out that it you sign up to make recurring donations on his website, you can't turn them off .


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[upsideguy]

Spend money??

You realize you are talking about Trump, right? He's got money coming out the...whatever.

Not enough to run a presidential campaign....

 

[Paperview]

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Clinton (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	7/29 - 8/5	--	--	47.3	40.4	Clinton +6.9
IBD/TIPP	7/29 - 8/4	851 RV	3.4	46	39	Clinton +7
LA Times/USC	7/30 - 8/5	2205 LV	--	45	44	Clinton +1
McClatchy/Marist	8/1 - 8/3	983 RV	3.1	48	33	Clinton +15
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	7/31 - 8/3	800 RV	3.5	47	38	Clinton +9
FOX News	7/31 - 8/2	1022 RV	3.0	49	39	Clinton +10
Reuters/Ipsos	7/30 - 8/3	1072 LV	3.5	43	39	Clinton +4
Economist/YouGov	7/30 - 8/1	933 RV	4.1	46	43	Clinton +3
CBS News	7/29 - 7/31	1131 RV	3.0	47	41	Clinton +6
CNN/ORC	7/29 - 7/31	894 RV	3.5	52	43	Clinton +9
PPP (D)	7/29 - 7/30	1276 LV	2.7	50	45	Clinton +5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

[Mycroft]

Polling Data
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Averages are only as good as the data used. If the data is bogus...or some of the data bogus...the average is useless.

The Hillary campaign and her media buddies have made the RCP average into a joke. Not even worth mentioning.

 

[Mycroft]

Not enough to run a presidential campaign....

I haven't heard any reports that Trump can't pay his bills. Have you?

 

[upsideguy]

I haven't heard any reports that Trump can't pay his bills. Have you?

Aside from the four bankruptcies, but they were in the past...

But, you go from one extreme to another. You suggested his pockets were very, very deep. I challenged that. I do not believe his pockets are not deep as he wants you to believe.

I am not saying he can't pay his bills... though he did take his sweet time actually passing the money he raised to the veterans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ations-to-vets-heres-what-we-still-dont-know/

...and there are other allegations that he doesn't always pay his bills, but they are just allegations (but there does seem to be a lot of them...)

USA TODAY exclusive: Hundreds allege Donald Trump doesn’t pay his bills
Dozens of lawsuits accuse Trump of not paying his bills, reports claim | Fox News
Reports: Donald Trump stiffs contractors - CNNPolitics.com
Donald Trump?s Business Plan Left a Trail of Unpaid Bills - WSJ

So, I guess those are not reports that he can't pay the bills; he just doesn't pay the bills. Maybe you should tell us: is this because he can't pay or, is he simply a liar and a thief?