Hillary Clinton has a slim lead over Trump. In Georgia.

[Anagram]

Okay. Then show me the data that proves it happened in Georgia this year.

I would say this poll is strong evidence of that, although as with all polls there's a built in margin for error. But seriously just look up pollsters weighting by Party ID or read those links on the last page about why all of the current pollsters don't.

 

[Kobie]

LOL!!

In THREE FREAKING MONTHS???

It doesn't fluctuate THAT wildly.

Dude...find someone else to sell your bridge to.

Unskew those polls, Mitt!

 

[Mycroft]

I would say this poll is strong evidence of that, although as with all polls there's a built in margin for error. But seriously just look up pollsters weighting by Party ID or read those links on the last page about why all of the current pollsters don't.

You are the one making the claim. You look it up.

Or better yet, look it up for Georgia between May and August.

And circular reasoning doesn't work. Don't say this poll provides strong evidence that this poll is not bogus. Especially when it's been established that the pollster weighs for party ID.

 

[Fiddytree]

Georgia will eventually go back to normal, and as a result, will continue to not be on my mind. Sorry Ray Charles.

 

[Kobie]

Georgia will eventually go back to normal, and as a result, will continue to not be on my mind. Sorry Ray Charles.

I will, however, be on the midnight train there, along with Gladys Knight.

 

[ecofarm]

If you dispute the link I gave, make your case.

Really, you think that's how it works? Wow.

You made the claim. The burden of proof is on you. A flagrantly biased source does not suffice.

 

[danarhea]

It's incredible how competitive Arizona and Georgia are with Hillary Clinton, a woman with a 60% unfavorability rating, running as a Democrat. It's not just the convention bounce either. Polling has shown them to be consistently close.

Trump's lead in Mississippi is only 3 points, according to the latest poll there.

 

[Mycroft]

Really, you think that's how it works? Wow.

You made the claim. The burden of proof is on you. A flagrantly biased source does not suffice.

I made my claim and supported my claim. That's all I need to do.

If you want to come along and say, "Nuh-uh!! Prove it!!", then you are just being childish. But if you want to come along and say, "I think you are wrong because of this, and this and this", then you are being adult.

Try being an adult, eh?

 

[roughdraft274]

The 538 predictions that JANFU presented give Trump the edge. The other link he gave was about Florida.

If you dispute the link I gave, make your case.

Exactly they have trump with the "edge". If you'll go back and read my original post I was saying that it's bad for trump that it's even close etc. there are numerous polls suggesting that it's very close.


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[Mycroft]

Exactly they have trump with the "edge". If you'll go back and read my original post I was saying that it's bad for trump that it's even close etc. there are numerous polls suggesting that it's very close.


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Trump has been close all over the place...except where bogus polls give Hillary an unreasonable edge. And yes...I think that's a bad thing for Trump...as well as for Hillary...but it doesn't reflect reality.

 

[cabse5]

It's probably smart to not draw conclusions about how this election will end. But I do think we can start looking at what it actually is right now. Clinton's convention bounce has been bigger than any candidate's in 20 years. And Trump's support is lower than any candidate's has been at any point post-convention than any candidate since 1996.

We certainly can't claim that Trump's dead yet because things happen, but I do think these mean something.

I don't have facts in front of me so I'm an 'amateur' who's analyzing poling patterns from this election.

Hillary has mostly been in a within-the-margin-of error polling lead, lost that lead in the first few days of the DNC and regained it with a vengeance after the DNC.

Trump's bounce/within-the-margin-of-error lead in the poling up to the early part of the DNC was due to the email scandal of the Democratic Party evidenced by the WikiLeaks...leaks. The disaffected group in the email scandal, the Bernie Sanders wing of the DNC, have always been shaky in their support for Hillary but that support waned tremendously after the email scandal. Trump's lead over Hillary the first few days of the DNC came from disaffected dems who either polled to be for Trump or for neither of the two candidates.

Trump's loss of that lead of the early days of the DNC came from disaffected Republicans from the Khan scandal. Not in anything that Mr. Khan said but how Trump treated Mr.Khan and his wife. Trump has always had #neverTrumpers who will never vote for him. Politicians like Paul Ryan, maybe John McCain, for examples, IMO, always look for excuses not to lead with their support for Trump and find any excuse to criticize Trump openly.

IMO as an amateur, Hillary has a more solid polling lead.

Either candidate can usually have a within-the-margin-of-error lead in polling. Damaging circumstances will cause fluidity in polling.

#nevervoters on either side will always cause more fluidity than with traditional polls. Either candidate will win by siphoning traditional voters (either by having them vote unconventionally or not at all). There is tremendous potential for either candidate to siphon traditional voters. If I were the campaign manager, I would plan for my candidate to spend an enormous amount of time trying to woo those disaffected voters. But the candidate couldn't rest on traditional voters.

Hillary and Trump will have to be busy campaigners. Woo those who are disaffected. Woo those on the fences. Occasionally 'say hello' to those who are entrenched. It's all fluid.

 

[roughdraft274]

Trump has been close all over the place...except where bogus polls give Hillary an unreasonable edge. And yes...I think that's a bad thing for Trump...as well as for Hillary...but it doesn't reflect reality.

Lol ok. If that makes you happy keep thinking that.


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[Mycroft]

Lol ok. If that makes you happy keep thinking that.


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shrug...

If you think I'm wrong, make your case. If you cannot make your case, don't waste my time.

 

[roughdraft274]

shrug...

If you think I'm wrong, make your case. If you cannot make your case, don't waste my time.

You currently think that this election right now is a close race? And you want me to waste time trying to show you otherwise?

Btw if you go to 538 right now and look at the "nowcast" which is what they think would happen if the election was today, they have Hillary winning Georgia by a tiny margin. But they are assuming it will go back in trumps favor before election time since it's hard for Hillary to ride this big of an advantage the rest of the election.

Nothing is over. But if you think Hillary is in any way shape or form in trouble you aren't basing your opinion on reality.


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[Mycroft]

You currently think that this election right now is a close race? And you want me to waste time trying to show you otherwise?

Btw if you go to 538 right now and look at the "nowcast" which is what they think would happen if the election was today, they have Hillary winning Georgia by a tiny margin. But they are assuming it will go back in trumps favor before election time since it's hard for Hillary to ride this big of an advantage the rest of the election.

Nothing is over. But if you think Hillary is in any way shape or form in trouble you aren't basing your opinion on reality.


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Really...I don't know where you get this stuff.

I haven't said anything about Hillary being in trouble. Heck, I think it's way too close to make that kind of statement...just as I think it's too close to say that Trump is in trouble.

That "nowcast" is pretty much worthless since things change every day. You are wasting your time by even mentioning it.

All I've been saying is that these dishonest polls are a tactic used to make Hillary look better off than she is and to cast doubt on Trump. If you disagree with this, then please explain why I'm wrong.

 

[calamity]

An outlier, but not a big one - other recent polling has also at tied, and Trump has been soft there since May.




Well done, Trump primary voters. You've put up a man so atrocious he's going to force a GOP candidate to spend resources (if Trump is capable of doing so) defending Georgia. Georgia is a possible swing state.

Reports show Arizona is in play too. And 538 is reporting that Trump is hurting down ticket candidates.

Trump May Start Dragging GOP Senate Candidates Down With Him | FiveThirtyEight

 

[roughdraft274]

Really...I don't know where you get this stuff.

I haven't said anything about Hillary being in trouble. Heck, I think it's way too close to make that kind of statement...just as I think it's too close to say that Trump is in trouble.

That "nowcast" is pretty much worthless since things change every day. You are wasting your time by even mentioning it.

All I've been saying is that these dishonest polls are a tactic used to make Hillary look better off than she is and to cast doubt on Trump. If you disagree with this, then please explain why I'm wrong.

It's not too close to say that trump is in trouble. The current polls are showing a landslide victory for Hillary across the country. You're just wrong. Like I said the election isn't over but if you don't think that Hillary is currently whipping trumps ass then you aren't paying attention.



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[Redress]

All I've been saying is that these dishonest polls are a tactic used to make Hillary look better off than she is and to cast doubt on Trump. If you disagree with this, then please explain why I'm wrong.

Yeah man, it's a conspiracy!!!!!

 

[Mycroft]

It's not too close to say that trump is in trouble. The current polls are showing a landslide victory for Hillary across the country. You're just wrong. Like I said the election isn't over but if you don't think that Hillary is currently whipping trumps ass then you aren't paying attention.



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Like I said. Please explain why I'm wrong. And don't depend on bogus polls...they won't cut it.

 

[Mycroft]

Yeah man, it's a conspiracy!!!!!

It's not a conspiracy...it's a cold, calculated, dishonest tactic that everyone knows about.

 

[roughdraft274]

Like I said. Please explain why I'm wrong. And don't depend on bogus polls...they won't cut it.

You said that it's close and that that is bad for Hillary. It's not close. At least not right now. Understand?


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[beerftw]

Here we go again...

The liberal lemmings see a doctored poll and think it reflects reality.

I don't know which is more pathetic...that people blindly believe this stuff...or that the crooked pollsters believe they can get away with it.

Busted! Crooked Media Plays With Polling Numbers To Pretend Georgia Is Hillary Country

It would not surprise me, both sides and their supporters have doctored polls in the past, they exploit the last second voter crowd, who votes for who they think will win rather than who they want, so if they pump up numbers, they think they have to vote for the winner, and yes voters can be this stupid.

Best measure is to watch the candidates themselves, they have the most accurate polling unavailable to the public. If trump starts sweating or hillary doubles down on adds you know one or the other is in trouble. In 12 romney was .5 behind trump in averages, romney was trying really hard, while obama was kicking back.

Obamas personal pollsters crunched the numbers and said you got this in the bag, while romneys said your in big trouble. It holds the same now, if hillary is spending like a drunk sailor on adds in swing states, it likely means the polls are not close to accurate, as no one would waste money if the election was in the bag.

 

[Mycroft]

You said that it's close and that that is bad for Hillary. It's not close. At least not right now. Understand?


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Come on...surely you can do better than this.

I said a close poll is bad for BOTH Trump and Hillary.

And it most certainly IS close...unless, of course, you insist on believing bogus polls. If you do, then you'll believe anything you are told.

 

[Mycroft]

It would not surprise me, both sides and their supporters have doctored polls in the past, they exploit the last second voter crowd, who votes for who they think will win rather than who they want, so if they pump up numbers, they think they have to vote for the winner, and yes voters can be this stupid.

Best measure is to watch the candidates themselves, they have the most accurate polling unavailable to the public. If trump starts sweating or hillary doubles down on adds you know one or the other is in trouble. In 12 romney was .5 behind trump in averages, romney was trying really hard, while obama was kicking back.

Obamas personal pollsters crunched the numbers and said you got this in the bag, while romneys said your in big trouble. It holds the same now, if hillary is spending like a drunk sailor on adds in swing states, it likely means the polls are not close to accurate, as no one would waste money if the election was in the bag.

You make a good point about the behavior of campaigns.

A couple things to think about:

1. This is not the last second, yet the Hillary campaign is pumping up her polls. That suggests a lot of worry on her part.

2. I don't know about Hillary's ad spending in swing states, though I've heard she has suspended ads in Colorado. But I've heard it said that she has increased ad spending in what should be safe states...blue states. If that is true, that is a very bad sign.

 

[roughdraft274]

Come on...surely you can do better than this.

I said a close poll is bad for BOTH Trump and Hillary.

And it most certainly IS close...unless, of course, you insist on believing bogus polls. If you do, then you'll believe anything you are told.

When you say it's close are you talking about nationally or in Georgia.


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